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Old 01-09-2020, 07:50 PM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
38,642 posts, read 26,378,527 times
Reputation: 12648

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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGTB

Notice the pattern as a recession arrives (shaded in gray).

I don't see a lack of demand or falling wages leading to an eminent recession.

Is there another cause that I haven't considered?
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Old 01-10-2020, 06:11 AM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
38,642 posts, read 26,378,527 times
Reputation: 12648
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Yeah, and 3 years ago there was a slowdown ... which may have been partly responsible for Hillary's loss.

Again, look at the data I linked, and notice what happens just before the gray shaded areas (which are recessions), and compare those to the latest data at the right of the charts:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGTB
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSAAR
Truck sales are a consequence, not a cause.




Try this one...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N#0


Median income declining seems a much more accurate predictor of recessions.
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Old 01-10-2020, 06:22 AM
 
12,265 posts, read 6,472,102 times
Reputation: 9435
The OP failed to mention that Trump sent the deficit to an all time high and now it`s where it was when Trump started. It`s no fault of his other than using FOX news as a source. They don`t actually lie, they just tell half the story knowing full well their viewers aren`t interested in anything else and they don`t use Google. They know their viewers well.
https://fortune.com/2019/03/06/us-tr...t-record-high/
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Old 01-10-2020, 06:41 AM
 
Location: Florida
76,971 posts, read 47,629,107 times
Reputation: 14806
Quote:
Trade deficit plunges, Airbus ramping up production and adding job in US amid tariff dispute.
So, we launch a trade war which makes things worse, and then we celebrate getting back to the numbers we had before the trade war........ in other words, you create a problem, and then brag about 'fixing' it.

Also, not sure what the FOX article is referring to when talking "annual deficits" and then giving a figure for only one month (October $43B). Another headline only few months earlier: "Trade gap widens more than expected to $54.9 billion". The truth is that the annual numbers are not out yet, so you are looking at FOX spin on it (aka fake news).

More bad news: the economy added a measly 145K jobs
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Old 01-10-2020, 06:56 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,872 posts, read 9,536,978 times
Reputation: 15590
Quote:
Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
Truck sales are a consequence, not a cause.
Agreed. They are a consequence of a slowing economy.

Quote:
Try this one...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N#0

Median income declining seems a much more accurate predictor of recessions.
Those are yearly figures, and the last year they have data for was 2018. It's already 2020. If we get a recession this year it will show a decline in that figure for this year ... but we won't have the data for it until sometime in 2022.
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Old 01-10-2020, 07:01 AM
 
13,601 posts, read 4,932,646 times
Reputation: 9687
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
The trade deficit tends to drop when there's a slowdown or entering a recession.
True. Everyone seems to think a trade deficit is a bad thing, but it is actually a sign of a strong economy. And we have had a strong economy for the past few years, which is why our trade deficit is so high. As long as we have low unemployment, there is no reason to want a lower trade deficit.
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Old 01-10-2020, 07:22 AM
 
46,281 posts, read 27,099,738 times
Reputation: 11126
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
The trade deficit tends to drop when there's a slowdown or entering a recession.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGTB

Notice the pattern as a recession arrives (shaded in gray).
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Data for entire heavy truck industry:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSAAR

Again, notice what it does just before a recession arrives (again, shaded in gray).

Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Yeah, and 3 years ago there was a slowdown ... which may have been partly responsible for Hillary's loss.

Again, look at the data I linked, and notice what happens just before the gray shaded areas (which are recessions), and compare those to the latest data at the right of the charts:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGTB
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSAAR

Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
If we had been getting the big economic boom Trump and the Trumpies were telling us we'd get, there would be plenty of work for those trucks and their truckers, and there would be no need for a slowdown. What you're basically telling us is that people bought a whole bunch of new heavy-duty trucks after Trump was elected, in anticipation of a boom that never arrived. So now they're stuck with a bunch of trucks they recently bought that are going unused, and as a result new orders and sales for trucks are starting to crash.

And please don't blame the uncertainty of the upcoming election, since nearly every Trumpie in this forum and elsewhere keep telling us his re-election is in the bag. You're basically using that as an excuse to explain away a crash in the truck market because that's the only excuse you can come up with that doesn't sound like people got too optimistic after Trump was elected.

Always that 1 debbie downer.....


https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-l...downer/3505987
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Old 01-10-2020, 07:26 AM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
89,018 posts, read 44,824,472 times
Reputation: 13711
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Easy to say from MS.

But not as easy to suggest in Washington State.

The Boeing "Universe" of direct employees, parts suppliers and others probably totals over 1/2 million relatively high paid jobs. Those jobs support many other jobs and family members.

I'd say it matters very much...to the economy of the USA as to whether we make world-class commercial airliners.
Boeing screwed the pooch with their now VERY public series of egregious errors made in the production of their 737 Max. How in the hell could that have happened?!? So much for those "high-paying jobs."
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Old 01-10-2020, 07:31 AM
 
Location: deafened by howls of 'racism!!!'
52,697 posts, read 34,555,075 times
Reputation: 29287
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Agreed. They are a consequence of a slowing economy.
it's getting so bad, taco bell is paying their managers $100K per year.

You Can Now Make $100,000 Working at Taco Bell | Bloomberg.com
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