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The numbers are not counting those who are at home and haven't been diagnosed. The incubation period is long so there are many infected right now who wont express symptoms until a week or so. The number of cases will skyrocket soon.
Here are Weibo police chat logs about the outbreak:
The Chinese police seem very worried and they don't seem to trust the government numbers at all. I'm not sure how accurate the translations are so take with a grain of salt. Weibo is like the Chinese Twitter.
Scary. Maybe I will take a trip to the grocer tomorrow afternoon to start stalking up. There's no downside to have fully stocked cupboards.
Mainland China went from 2118 to 2794 (last update was 430pm est.)
Deaths went from 56 to 80.
I still think it's severly under reported.
I believe the death count is for those that died in the hospitals. Home deaths are not included in the count yet, perhaps they never will be. It's way under reported.
It is causing a stir at ASU. We have several friends with kids there and they are worrying and buying masks and debating staying away from classes/moving out of the dorms. It would be helpful to have more info on the real threat here, but we are going to just have to wait (and speculate).
I think that if there is one case on a university, the institution should close, but that won't happen. It will be just like what happened in China. They will wait until students are dropping like flies to take action.
If there are 2000 sick, 80 deaths and 54 recoveries, it seems like the number of deaths is quickly overtaking the number of recoveries. Earlier today they were roughly equal.
So we really don't know what the death rate is if there are more recoveries or more deaths. That is more deaths than recoveries so far.. if these numbers hold , I can see why they shut it all down.. this is past catastrophic. They should immediately shut down travel from China or they will have many deaths all over the world. They can't even diagnose anyone for two weeks .. they are infected and no one even knows it . They know this already and because it is a Communist country everything is locked down as far as controlling what is said . This all took place in one week!
Mainland China went from 2118 to 2794 (last update was 430pm est.)
Deaths went from 56 to 80.
I still think it's severely under reported.
That's in line with the estimate of a 3 percent mortality rate.
If a billion people worldwide get infected, then that's 30 million dead.
I agree that the numbers are under reported. Every eye witness report from within China that I've read says that way more are infected and that more have died than the number reported.
There's also talk of SARS being present simultaneously at the hospitals. It makes me wonder if the rumors about a release from the biolab in Wuhan have some truth to them.
That's in line with the estimate of a 3 percent mortality rate.
If a billion people worldwide get infected, then that's 30 million dead.
I agree that the numbers are under reported. Every eye witness report from within China that I've read says that way more are infected and that more have died than the number reported.
There's also talk of SARS being present simultaneously at the hospitals. It makes me wonder if the rumors about a release from the biolab in Wuhan have some truth to them.
I've wondered that myself - but that's something we'll probably never know. It's China after all.
So we really don't know what the death rate is if there are more recoveries or more deaths. That is more deaths than recoveries so far.. if these numbers hold , I can see why they shut it all down.. this is past catastrophic. They should immediately shut down travel from China or they will have many deaths all over the world. They can't even diagnose anyone for two weeks .. they are infected and no one even knows it . They know this already and because it is a Communist country everything is locked down as far as controlling what is said . This all took place in one week!
I think other countries are too laid back and confident about their ability to deal with a pandemic. It's better to over-react than under-react with something like this. Since all sick people come from China, stopping all incoming flights from China would be wise.
I'm curious why we haven't heard any numbers from Russia.
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