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A better question is....Why do people think Trump is conservative?
He's a puppet with few convictions of his own, but he's running his administration as a social conservative. He's nominating judges favorable to the Christian Right and who are against abortion and LGBT rights. His base sees him as stopping the moral decline of American society. That's why Trump is so popular.
Another example of Trumper logic. Cows don't vote. Trees don't vote. Counties don't vote, people do.
The reality of HRC’s loss stares you in the face, even a child can see the ratio of blue to red in that map, yet you deny it. Why don’t you find a candidate who can make the map blue? Duh-oh.
538's weighted average of all polls had Clinton 46-42. The actual result was Clinton 48-46. This is within the margin of error, but they underestimated both, Trump by 4 and Clinton by 2. Last minute deciders probably played a role.
2020 is not like 2016. Last-minute undecideds in Mich., Wisc., and Penn. knew they didn't care for Clinton and thought they'd take a chance on the new guy, Trump. Today Trump is a very well known quantity and many people don't care for him while others think he's great. All of the Democratic candidates, except Biden, are the "new guy" that undecideds might take a chance on if they don't care for Trump.
538 has Trump at 43% approval, three points down from the 46% that got him elected. 43% is a low number for an incumbent; if it was 50% or higher he'd be a shoo-in. The best and most objective conclusion we can reach right now is that it will be a close election, no matter who the Dem nominee is.
^THIS is correct.
To all who are acting like nobody is answering the question, many are (and a few are not).
The question was not "who will win", it is about how Trump support is rated, or underrated. My feeling is that he has about 40%, which is low, but he's a master at "playing the game to win", while his competition is more focused on "what needs to happen". While they are all distracted trying to do (what they think is) the right thing, he is hell-bent on winning. He has, at his disposal, the power of lies, he is not restricted by rules or law, or ethics. If the goal is only winning, that is a HUGE advantage, and to your question, I don't underrate it.
As quoted above, I think the popular vote will be fairly close. I would not dare to wager an estimate on the electoral vote, it could be close, or could landslide either way. November is a long way off.
I think Trump's support is what it is. It's really about the Dems having a message first, and then unifying around it second. That's a lot to get done in 9 months.
He lost the popular vote and barely won those three states you mentioned by less than 1% each against one of the worst Democratic candidates in history. Clinton didn’t inspire enthusiasm. Perhaps you should be asking yourself why your so confident Trump can win again when he barely won last time?
1. Because 3 million in the popular vote is largely meaningless.
2. Because every doom and gloom prediction made by Dems about Trump (stock markets will crash, he'll start WWIII, etc) have not only not materialized, quite the opposite has happened.
3. The current crop of Democrats is really no better than Hillary was. Bernie may inspire some votes on the Dem side, but he is just as polarizing, if not moreso than Hillary and will also inspire Republicans to come out and vote against him.
I wasn't on CD when Trump was running before so I don't know who said what on here. All I can tell you is that I paid him no attention at the time. Never watched his shows. Didn't think America would elect a reality tv guy to run the country that had no political experience so I wasn't concerned. I didn't see the danger that was coming.
1. I asked you to keep this civil. One more and I am reporting this to the mods.
2. Glass houses. I put the answer in the initial comment. You seem to have missed it or not understood.
3. Apparently you don't know anything about elections. The money is already being spent on get-out-the-vote efforts, which means that they are identifying Republican voters, making contact, making sure that they are registered, and making arrangements to get them to the polls. This is BRUTALLY effective, and a big part of Obama's historic win.
4. Wow. Not a single honest attempt to answer any of the questions posited. Just wow.
5. You misspelled "this."
Thanks you for being civil, but again, I already answered as part of the question. They misread his support by nine points last time. This time, he is at 45% in the aggregate of polls. You do the math.
But no attempt to answer the question? Copy.
It is a little sad. Only Eli had a coherent thought on the subject, but still completely ignores what is already stated in the premise.
They didn't misread his support. They didnt take in his share of slim support that would give him over the top for the electoral college.. His support was darn close with how the total number of votes played out. They were just slim enough to cover MI, WI, and PA to get him over the top.
He's a puppet with few convictions of his own, but he's running his administration as a social conservative. He's nominating judges favorable to the Christian Right and who are against abortion and LGBT rights. His base sees him as stopping the moral decline of American society. That's why Trump is so popular.
Trump is really doing nothing but playing golf and watching tv.
Others in the White House and Senator McConnell are running the country. Trump is playing let's pretend to be a POTUS.
I wanna see the many shades of purple the map should be recording.
Not sure what you mean by that statement. The map clearly shows the electoral reality in 2016. Denial is pointless, the path forward for Dems is finding a candidate who can do better.
A better question is....Why do people think Trump is conservative?
Because he says he is?.......Pffft.
What conservative behaviors has Trump consistently exhibited over a long period of time?
It's a code word - a dog whistle........"conservative" means business as usual, usual being like before the Great Depression and the Great Recession and such.
Conservative effectively means MORE inequality. More debt. More war. Less for the forgotten man and woman.
I hope that helps. There is certainly no other meaning one can gleam as the proof is in the pudding.
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