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This one is simple. We have a consumer driven economy. It means things won't go well if people are just buying basic needs. Now we have this coronavirus. Regardless of how real the threat is, people are staying home instead of going out. Large events have been cancelled like SWSX. Travel is restricted. The fear will drive people to save and spend less. Recession is pretty much guaranteed. The only way out of this is for the vaccine to be widely available next year.
We are looking at least at one quarter of negative GDP, with good probability of two or more. So yes, recession is probable and you're seeing markets price that in in the next few weeks.
You can't have half the world take drastic quarantine measures and not have it dramatically hit consumer spending and business investment.
The duration just depends on how quickly this virus contagion stabilizes with help of warmer weather, quarantines, and hopefully scientific progress on a vaccine.
Not one reported case in my state (or the neighboring province).
Not even one.
If this keeps spreading, there is no doubt we will go into a recession. People stay home, don’t go shopping, tourism is hurt, and investors continue to panic. The global economy was already in bad shape.
I'm not sure why the Democrats are wishing so feverishly for a COVID-19 zombie apocalypse in which they're the zombies.
It'll be the high-connectivity coastal hubs with concentrated deprived inner-urban populations that'll be affected by it the most.
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