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They could test 1 million people. That's no help to you is it ?
But the one that tested positive and appears on the CDC website is important.
It is a very helpful number, and I would say critical in determining what the exact situation is.
If you test 1M people, and 100 are positive, you are in very good shape.
If you test 1M people, and 300K are positive, you are in very bad shape.
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However, re: the above link, the serious/critical number has not changed at all, and is still at 8! Any ideas why that would be?
I would imagine if you sick enough to be considered "critical" it is going to take awhile to recover. So I would ask for how long has that number been at 8? A couple weeks would be reasonable.
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Oh yes, cue the hypochondriacs rushing out to get their tests.
Would these be the same people that have 10,000 rolls of TP, 5000 N95 masks and all the gallons of water from Walmart stocked up in their living room ?
This is just my opinion and a wild guess. I think this will probably go like a bad flu year, next year we will get 2 vaccines or a mixed (I am not sure how that works) and annually more people will die from it like they do the flu. I don't see the panic either. The thing that does bother me is the lack of information from the top. Why is that?
This particular virus is extremely challenging from an epidemiological standpoint. I started following it about a month go thru a public health website - each day brought negative information on the virus' characteristics. It was like we couldn't get a break. This last datapoint from WHO suggesting the virus never became widespread in China - not even in Wuhan - is yet another example. It buys us time, but opens the door to a worse end result if we don't move quickly.
The virus has the potential to severely limit the availability of medical care and disrupt supply chains.
Contrast the US approach to that the UK. There, the government appears to leak possible scenarios and public health responses to media outlets. That has the impact of not overwhelming the public but at the same time providing some assurance there are ongoing plans being put into place. That the government 'gets it.'
Here ... the opposite. Why? Since this is a political forum, no problem with saying this approach is typical for DJT. This he cannot control via twitter - so he instead uses other methods to shape the world as he wants it to be.
I would imagine if you sick enough to be considered "critical" it is going to take awhile to recover. So I would ask for how long has that number been at 8? A couple weeks would be reasonable.
But my point (and sorry that I did not make this more clear!) is that I would think the number of critical/serious cases would go up significantly every couple of days until the virus reaches its peak.
But my point (and sorry that I did not make this more clear!) is that I would think the number would go up significantly.
Ah, sorry, I misunderstood. I am guessing that the critical number did not go up, because they were deaths instead, just due to who got infected - a nursing home with the very elderly, on the other side if our positives are on younger people, they tend to not to go that severe. I think we would have a better view if we had case statistics for the US, but I haven't been tracking gender, age, etc. that would be needed.
But I'm just guessing, because I haven't been paying attention to the critical number (though I should).
Lot's of guesses, no facts.
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They could test 1 million people. That's no help to you is it ?
But the one that tested positive and appears on the CDC website is important.
Epidemiologists use datasets as complete as possible to analyze disease progression. The characteristics of the population that is being tested is, of course, highly relevant. WHO examined figures in China - that included total tests - with tentative results that have the potential to change how we view this epidemic.
(Graduate degree here in public health, emphasis on biostatistics and epidemiology but never practiced in the field. I've been following a website of health professionals, watching how they use and interpret various scientific analyses. So far we have not been able to catch a break on this virus.)
Epidemiologists use datasets as complete as possible to analyze disease progression. The characteristics of the population that is being tested is, of course, highly relevant. WHO examined figures in China - that included total tests - to arrive at key information that has the potential to change how we view this epidemic. WHO's conclusions for China have altered my personal take. Here ... we do not know.
(Graduate degree here in public health, emphasis on biostatistics and epidemiology but never practiced in the field. I've been following a website of professional, watching how they use and interpret various scientific analyses.)
Ok but for the normal Joe they don't care about analyzing any of this.
I'm sure scientists are gathering this info from all over, not just the US.
Epidemiologists use datasets as complete as possible to analyze disease progression. The characteristics of the population that is being tested is, of course, highly relevant. WHO examined figures in China - that included total tests - with tentative results that have the potential to change how we view this epidemic.
(Graduate degree here in public health, emphasis on biostatistics and epidemiology but never practiced in the field. I've been following a website of health professionals, watching how they use and interpret various scientific analyses. So far we have not been able to catch a break on this virus.)
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