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With 15% of the world vaccinated 9 months into this the problem is production and distribution. We had the "formula" for the vaccine a few days after the data was sent from China. 4 years from now the original vaccine will be in every human who wants one. That is not a good plan. There is probably a way for the world to mobilize and do it quicker. But its probably too late now. Why were there not plants set up everywhere to mass produce vaccines back in 2020? And some system to get it to everyone quickly? Is that not the job of WHO? The UN? Its a horrendous failure to humanity that was not done. Perhaps there is no money in vaccinating billions of poor people. Or these organizations are simply worthless in dealing with real problems.
And if this virus mutates to the point that current vaccines do not work then would a booster work? The boosters they are talking about now are just a 3rd jab correct? That would just raise the efficacy against the original strain or perhaps Delta. Would they not have to start from scratch again if a variant evades all current vaccines? Sure you get a vaccine designed within a few days but then you have to through the whole process just like we did in 2020. Or do we skip all of that and just say, take it. No time for testing? People don't like the rushed one year plan. Now you want to cut that to a month or two and expect people to all go for that?
I would say the time is now to let it rip. While the current vaccines still have efficacy. We can get everyone infected in a matter of days. Mask up, social distance will just give the virus time to mutate into something we have no control over. I don't think we can grasp the concept of letting millions of old people die to protect billions on this planet. But that is probably the best thing to stop it.
I don't want anyone to die needlessly.
But people have been sold a false bill of goods that covid can be eradicated by vaccinating everything that moves in the US. Or by masking. Or by lock downs. Or by vaccine passports.
Covid is never going away. It was never going to go away.
And every expert and scientist that has said so much has been told to sit down and shut up.
So now you have legions of scared angry people who have been whipped into a frenzy from the msm and are literally being told that this is the fault of the unvaccinated and those people need to be removed from society.
We would've been closer to the end if we wouldn't have turned the 15 days to slow the spread into 18 months of unattainable goals.
I think we need to look at the big picture and not just repeat the same strategy that has not worked. Better to allow everyone to catch it quickly. Instead of waiting years for enough people to be vaccinated assuming we could get enough people to agree to it.
The whole world would have be vaccinated. 9 months of vaccinating and last I read we were at 15%. There is no way we are going to vaccinate enough people before a mutation that evades the vaccine appears and probably already does. Seems to me makes more sense to let everyone get covid as quickly as possible and allow natural immunity to work. No guarantees we will succeed.
Unfortunately I think the big picture is bigger than the one you mention.
I also embrace the instinctive appeal - LET'S JUST GET THIS OVER WITH, ENOUGH. Less problematic variants can outcompete the more problematic. For example, look at B.117 (Alpha, more infectious) and the S. African variant (Beta, more of an escape variant). Alpha outcompeted Beta. So let's go with Delta then becomes the proposal.
However, the problem with mass natural infection - outside of all the societal issues - is that approach puts mutation pressure on the entire virus, not just the spike crown.
The majority of the vaccines (outside of inactive vaccines like Sinopharm) focus on the spike protein that anchors on the cell allowing for coronavirus entry. The vaccines are designed to prevent the complete virus from infecting the cell by targeting the spike.
Now obviously - certainly for Delta - some number of pathogens manage to avoid the nAbs created by the vaccines that target their spikes, leading to a breakthrough infection that to date are mild. There have been mutations on the spike crown. This will continue to happen, which is SAGE scenario two. These variants - the VOCs - to date developed in unvaccinated populations. Scientists are working to broaden the vaccine platform.
BUT the worst-case is SAGE scenario one, where the virus mutates to become more lethal. So far that has not been demonstrated with any the spike mutations to date. Analyses identify specific mutations on the spike that allow for greater infectivity or partial vaccine evasion. However, there have also been mutations within remaining proteins of the whole virus.
What I am saying is that any factor that promotes viral entry to the human cell in substantial numbers (mass infections and cross mutations) in any one locale and stay for an extended period of time in an individual (no nABS or durable immunity from vaccination) probably promotes more whole cell mutations. Increasing the possibility of a virus that is also more lethal.
Slowing the virus down allowing for gradual exposures that minimize viral pressure is difficult and imperfect, clearly - but that comes from the biology of this, and still imperfect human weapons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound
No guarantees we will succeed. But certainly the masking and vaccinating route has not worked and is impossible at this point.
What the SAGE scientists are saying is that there is no way out that does not bring pain - that is seemingly "impossible." The last and 'best' scenario is that Covid mutates to become less harmful, more like a common cold but that will only happen over an extended time period.
Obviously I vote for that, but still there is an unanswered question. Mutation apparently is a given. That's how viruses work. And that's what the SAGE analysis focuses on. Fair enough.
Still, could there be a scenario where the mutations remain generally benign to where immunities either from vaccination or natural infection occur as the virus continues to spread around the world gradually to minimize the possibility of natural selection and viral mutation? Eventually most people will have some form of immunity, slowing the virus in that manner - outside of a substantial mutation.
Perhaps that falls under the SAGE scenario 4, but seemingly without that extra boost from a mutation to become less harmless. Either way, this is going to take awhile. That's not good news.
Once the original Pfizer/Moderna vaccine gets full approval, it's pretty straightforward to tweak based on new characteristics just like with the flu shot, which is different every year and doesn't need special approval. And we've gotten supply chains figured out a lot over the past year.
15% of the world is vaccinated. I have been watching the data. We are up about 1% in the past month. At this rate we will be at 20% by the end of the year. And if we have to start all over by then with a new vaccine for everyone I just don't see how that works.
Its a moral dilemma to intentionally infect everyone. But if it mutates into something as deadly as previous pandemics like SARS and highly infectious like Delta its going to be way too late to play vaccine catch up. And a lot more people will die.
But people have been sold a false bill of goods that covid can be eradicated by vaccinating everything that moves in the US. Or by masking. Or by lock downs. Or by vaccine passports.
Covid is never going away. It was never going to go away.
And every expert and scientist that has said so much has been told to sit down and shut up.
So now you have legions of scared angry people who have been whipped into a frenzy from the msm and are literally being told that this is the fault of the unvaccinated and those people need to be removed from society.
We would've been closer to the end if we wouldn't have turned the 15 days to slow the spread into 18 months of unattainable goals.
That is the moral dilemma. Like the scenario that a runaway train car has two passengers on it. Down below there are 20 people that may die if the car is not stopped. You have the chance to derail the car which will for sure kill the two on board. There is only time to make split second decision. What do you do?
I was fine with going along with the original approach. Mask up avoid getting sick and wait for the vaccine to conquer the pandemic. That failed. Its time to detail the runaway train.
Well crap. Scenario one & two are what I have been afraid of (& suspecting) this whole time.
It's what any virologist was concerned about from the beginning, hence the world response to lock down in an attempt to minimize viral spread at any one time and place. Once it became clear in about February or so that Covid could not be contained, that became the strategy.
The next question - determined by the virus- was how stable it might be. RNA coronaviruses by definition are not stable with this a new virus in a totally naive population. That alone was terrifying with the implications not grasped by most, who derided Covid as a cold. You, however, understood the implications from the first. The problems that mass infection would bring.
Vaccination is a tool, and like all tools it should be used wisely. Both strategically and with an understanding that it is a medical intervention in an individual that itself may lead to side effects etc. Another tool are public health restrictions to also manage both mutation pressure and communal side effects. They absolutely come at an enormous cost.
There really are no 'perfect' pain free answers to what biology (or another factor, that I've never investigated but that I know you believe in) has done.
15% of the world is vaccinated. I have been watching the data. We are up about 1% in the past month. At this rate we will be at 20% by the end of the year. And if we have to start all over by then with a new vaccine for everyone I just don't see how that works.
Its a moral dilemma to intentionally infect everyone. But if it mutates into something as deadly as previous pandemics like SARS and highly infectious like Delta its going to be way too late to play vaccine catch up. And a lot more people will die.
I wrote a long explaining post above.
The short version is: natural infection also promotes mutation, more really since it leads to longer and worse infections in an unvaccinated person and puts pressure on the entire virus where mutations may be more likely to lead to increased virulence. Most vaccines, in contrast, target the spike crown - where mutations to date resulted in increased infectivity and some escape variants. With those happening in an unvaccinated population.
Why would not the mass-infection situation be worse, when it comes to mutations? This is not a virus that spreads slowly. I didn't read the SAGE scenarios as being anti-vaccine but, more, explanatory of how viruses work.,
It's what any virologist was concerned about from the beginning, hence the world response to lock down in an attempt to minimize viral spread at any one time and place. Once it became clear in about February or so that Covid could not be contained, that became the strategy.
The next question - determined by the virus- was how stable it might be. RNA coronaviruses by definition are not stable with this a new virus in a totally naive population. That alone was terrifying with the implications not grasped by most, who derided Covid as a cold. You, however, understood the implications from the first. The problems that mass infection would bring.
Vaccination is a tool, and like all tools it should be used wisely. Both strategically and with an understanding that it is a medical intervention in an individual that itself may lead to side effects etc. Another tool are public health restrictions to also manage both mutation pressure and communal side effects. They absolutely come at an enormous cost.
There really are no 'perfect' pain free answers to what biology (or another factor, that I've never investigated but that I know you believe in) has done.
This was the perfect storm. A pandemic starts in a country we were essentially in a cold war with who is probably lying about what really happened there. At the same time we were in the most divisive presidential race in decades with both sides totally distrusting the other. So a whole series of bad moves were made on both sides. Many on the right did not believe all of it was real. Those on the left overreacted with ill advised shut downs and mask mandates. So we got consumed with race riots and all the issues surrounding the election. Meanwhile the virus kept chugging along infecting more people and mutating. So we just dragged it out instead of letting very low risk people get infected and grow herd immunity. Now we are at a crossroads where no decisions are easy.
The short version is: natural infection also puts pressure on the virus, more really since it leads to longer and worse infections in an unvaccinated person and puts pressure on the entire virus where mutations may be more likely to lead to increased virulence. Most vaccines, in contrast, target the spike crown - where mutations to date resulted in increased infectivity and some escape variants. With those happening in an unvaccinated population.
Why would not the mass-infection situation be worse, when it comes to mutations? This is not a virus that spreads slowly. I didn't read the SAGE scenarios as being anti-vaccine but, more, explanatory of how viruses work.,
In your perfect world everyone is quickly vaccinated and the virus is muted. That world does not exist for many reasons.
We are not going to succeed with mass vaccinations. I don't think that its a viable goal at this point. We are simply too slow at it. And too many don't want it to take it. If we are stuck at 10-20% of the world vaccinated against whatever new variant covid is attacking us with. How is that a plan? I don't think the SAGE people are really pro or anti vaccine. But they are pointing out the reality of what might happen.
The vaccine helps me personally avoid getting Delta. Its a personal thing. But that has nothing to do with what were are dealing with on a global basis. And if we continue to refuse shut all incoming travel to this country what happens globally will effect us directly. If you have a fly problem in your house and refuse to shut the front door. Spraying your indoors over and over is a temporary solution. Better to close the front door.
Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 08-06-2021 at 09:39 AM..
I was saying back in March 2020 that "flatten the curve" is the same as "lengthen the curve".
Precisely, which from a biological point of view allows for lesser pressure on the virus. This isn't just going to go away with the world now reaching the end of a curve.
When a problematic variant does arise in an index case (hypothesized to be more likely in someone immunologically compromised), good genomic monitoring and tracing cases - allows for faster identification and suppression. This is only possible when there is not an overwhelming number of cases. Society is going to have to adapt to living with a new pathogen.
I'm not in the least 'opposed to natural immunity.' But there cannot be too many cases at any one time in any one place.
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