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I have been attending our local YMCA for over ten years. In those 10 years I have made gym acquaintances. One such person is this lady who I talk with regularly. She and her husband are conservatives. The other day we were having a conversation and somehow politics came up. Her faced turned red with anger as she started to talk about about how bad the market would get if the democrats win. She said that they were looking to put their money, which she said was "a lot" into other investments if it looked like a democrat would become president. She seemed like a totally different person once she started talking about politics. It seemed to be all emotions, as she normally comes across as an intelligent person.
This is the same type of fear that would trigger certain demographics to move out the neighborhood when too many of another demographic starts moving in, due to fears that home values will drop. This women strikes me as the type of person who would move out of her neighborhood if too many of a different kind started to move in, despite her living in an upper income community. People like her, in mass, makes their own fears come true.
There are many people who thinks like this gym lady. They predict something bad will happen....."If". However, the number one factor causing the "if" to happen is the changed behavior of the predictor. Yes, the market will decline if democrats win and a good number of conservative people start pulling money out of the market. It's called a self fulfilling prophecy. That is what I told this lady. She had nothing to say but it definitely did not change her emotions. If she acted on those fears.....she would be contributing to creating what it is that she feared.
I feel like this women is a kind of microcosm of how beliefs, in and of themselves, concerning "if", influences the economy (and frankly many other things). The "Trump" economy or the boost in the economy under Trump is mostly a self fulfilling prophecy of many people with businesses and money believing that things would be better under Trump than under Obama. Those entities started behaving differently and more positively, thus making things improve in the economy even more so than under Obama. Once people started behaving differently, based upon speculation, the changed behavior can result in the manifestation of what was feared. It does not even have to be a fear. It could be any perception that has been unconfirmed leading to a change in behavior or what you would normally do.
Last edited by Indentured Servant; 03-01-2020 at 06:36 AM..
Quote "She seemed like a totally different person once she started talking about politics. It seemed to be all emotions, as she normally comes across as an intelligent person."
So why does she no longer seem intelligent? Because she is voting Republican? Because she is talking politics?
I have been going to the YMCA since 1995. You can talk about how many sit ups you did, or how much that new CV equipment made you hurt or even how bad that new class is. But I see no reason to talk politics there. During the impeachment the guy beside me lounging on the Cybex machine was talking to another old guy about if they removed Trump him and thousands of well armed guys like him would be marching on DC. I just went on with my workout, Trump supporters seem immune to facts anyway. What is the point?
Being concerned about the impact to the market an anti business president seeking to increase taxes and double the size of government is absolutely valid.
Quote "She seemed like a totally different person once she started talking about politics. It seemed to be all emotions, as she normally comes across as an intelligent person."
So why does she no longer seem intelligent? Because she is voting Republican? Because she is talking politics?
She did not seem intelligent because she essentially is creating what she fears through her behavior.
Being concerned about the impact to the market an anti business president seeking to increase taxes and double the size of government is absolutely valid.
It's also absolutely valid that if people change their investment and economic behavior due to speculating what would happen if a democrat wins........it will change outcomes in the markets and the economy.
It's also absolutely valid that if people change their investment and economic behavior via speculating what would happen if a democrat wins........it will change outcomes in the markets and the economy.
Sure... but you'd be foolish not to given what they are running on. Would the panic caused by a Bernie type being elected president harm the economy before Bernie got a chance to do it himself? Of course..... but that doesn't change the fact that he plans on crushing the economy.
It's like complaining about people rushing for the exits in a building that is about to collapse. Will people be hurt in the stampede? Of course, but if they stay they will be crushed by the collapsing building.
Sure... but you'd be foolish not to given what they are running on. Would the panic caused by a Bernie type being elected president harm the economy before Bernie got a chance to do it himself? Of course..... but that doesn't change the fact that he plans on crushing the economy.
It's like complaining about people rushing for the exits in a building that is about to collapse. Will people be hurt in the stampede? Of course, but if they stay they will be crushed by the collapsing building.
Again....you are speculating on what would happen under a Bernie economy. I doubt that anything radical could pass the legislature. There is a system of checks and balances. The damage to the economy would mainly be from speculators such as yourself....changing their economic activity. Then after the economy tanks.....you would then blame Bernie.....when it was YOU and your like minded thinkers at fault.
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