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Old 03-19-2020, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Chicago Area
12,687 posts, read 6,734,867 times
Reputation: 6594

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Trump did pretty much the same thing: hid the ball, played games, bad mouthed and discredited the media trying to report it, failed to prepare the medical response, botched testing. Trump was caught with his pants down (sorry about that optic). Trump owns the virus in the US.
Trump hid the ball the same way China did? When? There was a 30-something year old doctor in China who was desperately trying to get the word out about this Chinese Plague. China intentionally infected him with the virus and then refused any effort to save his life as the virus killed him, then erased all mention of the man everywhere they could.

This is from a month ago when China was still the epicenter of the disease. That particular YouTube channel reports on the kind of stuff that China desperately wants to pretend isn't happening. The mainstream media has tends to shut up when they are told to shut up by Beijing.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tChy...ctr=1584628438

By the way, WTF YouTube!?! "Adult content" = any criticism of the Chinese government.

Trump's initial response wasn't great, but he's got nothing on China for evil sadistic practices. Saying, "Trump did basically the same thing." is like say that telling a derogatory joke about Jews is basically the same thing as Hitler and the Holocaust. Not even remotely similar.

 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Free From The Oppressive State
30,253 posts, read 23,737,137 times
Reputation: 38634
Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill View Post
Okay -- thinking you are overly dramatic.

I did not panic...I simply, clearly, calmly stated we will al be adversely impacted.
That's not freaking out or panicked. It's merely a statement.

Deep breath -- I think you're hyped state is dramatizing what folks are saying......it's okay -- we will be fine. You failed to read or cite or quote my posts saying we will come back.......I'm not the one freaking out here....lol.
Sigh. I'm not talking about YOU, I'm talking about everyone else out there in public. Or have you not been to your local grocery stores lately? Have you not been getting the 40,000 emails from businesses you've ever done business with sending you information on what they are doing to help stop the spread, even though everything you do is online? Or have you not been aware that people are already losing their jobs because businesses won't open due to how this has been blown up into something huge when no one has all the facts yet - but let's just keep freaking everyone out.

I'm going by what we have seen so far, most people seem to be going on "Ifs". We've got people talking about martial law, for cripes sake. "Close the beaches", "close everything", "stay in your home" - yeah, that's real easy to say if you have the money to sit at home or you can work remotely. How many millions do not have that luxury? And you've got people ticked off that they continue to go to work.

I was at the DMV the other day getting my license for my new state. They made us sit one chair apart from the next person. Seriously? How the hell is that doing anything effective? It's not. All it's doing is putting more fear into people. One chair apart, oh, that's all it takes?

The DMV lady in the front at one point coughed - JC, almost everyones head whipped up, and you could see their eyes wide and/or imploring. We don't want to get to that point - but that's where this is headed. We keep on with this panic nonsense, and we're going to get to the point that if someone coughs in public from a dry throat, nothing to do with this virus, or someone sneezes because of the sunlight, nothing to do with this virus, we're going to have a mob mentality going after that person. People are angry that a beach was crowded - angry about it! Just wait until the mob mindset sets in.

The good that has come from this is that at grocery stores, the bakery, for example, no longer has their donuts and cookies out for people to use tongs or the pieces of paper to grab a treat. Now everything is packaged for us. That's how it should have been in the first place!

People are using the hand sanitizer as soon as they come in the store, and as they leave. That's how it should have been in the first place. People are using their sleeves to push the carts - (not all, but more) - that's how it should have been in the first place.

People are wiping things down that they bring in their homes. That's how it should have been in the first place. People are taking their shoes off before walking through their house, they are removing their street clothes and putting on clean clothes once inside the house - that's how it all should have been in the first place.

People are covering their damn face and nose when they cough or sneeze. That's how it should have been in the first place. Not just because of this virus, but because of all of the viruses we are subject to - from ebola, to corona, to the flu, to the common cold - this is how people should have been acting.

We wouldn't have tens of thousands die every year from the flu if people had been doing this all along. We wouldn't have people freaking the hell out right now if people hadn't been acting like pigs all along. There's no need to panic, just stop living like a pig.

Someone stuck in a nursing home, elderly, health compromised already - they're stuck. There isn't a damn thing they can do about their situation. I'm not "dismissing" them nor am I saying that they are "not as worthy" as other people - as some stupidly state I'm saying - they don't have control of anything. They're in a damn nursing home.

It's everyone else who needs to stop panicking. As someone said in another post, being aware and being paranoid are 2 different things. Unfortunately, we have a whole lot of paranoid people out there right now. Just do what your mother told you to do. I've been saying this for posts on end. Proper hygiene, stay away from sick people (if you don't work in healthcare), and if you see some twit blasting their spit and snot out in public, remove yourself from the area, and again, feel free to tell them what aholes they are for doing so - any time. Any time, not just now. Any time. Should have been doing it, feel free to do it now, and going forward, let them know how disgusting they are. They hate when you call them out, they get angry - so what. If more people spoke up, maybe they'd stop spitting and snotting everywhere.

For all of the lecturing that has been going on in these threads, I guarantee you that those who seem to relish in the panic, are going to go back to doing what they've always done when this has calmed down. And then, we'll have another outbreak of something - want to talk about selfish and inconsiderate? Those are the selfish and inconsiderate people - the ones who spread their germs everywhere because they are too lazy, it's "too much work" to keep clean and not spread their crap everywhere. Those words have been said on posts in regards to what people are doing right now - things they should have been doing.

I've asked that question several times now: How many of you are going to continue being clean and using proper hygiene, and doing the extra to prevent catching someone elses germs? The funny part is, no one ever wants to answer that question.

Because we both know they aren't going to continue it. So everyone here can spare me their lectures and bs. How people are acting now (minus the hoarding and freaking out) is how I've been living. I do my best not to spread my germs around, and I do my best not to get anyone elses = as much as I am able.

Unless people have already been living like that, they have nothing to say to me. Don't tell me what I need to worry about. I'm going to go about living my life as I have been for years - because I've already been living that way minus the panic buying and minus holed up inside my home watching 24/7 cable news and freaking out.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:10 AM
 
78,408 posts, read 60,593,823 times
Reputation: 49691
Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill View Post
You missed the anecdote. So someone presents with pneumonia -- they aren't testing. They die -- their death is put down to 'heart', 'pneumonia'. I suspect until recently we have not done autopsies on every person who has died of pneumonia in the last 8 weeks.....our numbers could be worse we don't know.
You're more right than the OP.

From a strictly analytical perspective:

1) Too many cases are yet unresolved and the sampling size is biased for a number of reasons to provide a good death rate. The best measure when the dust settles will be deaths/total population as it credits both prevention and treatment.

2) Again more bias in the sample is the initial nursing home outbreak that caused a surge of deaths. This was pointed to initially by left wing idiots trying to point how we "botched it" but because that made the death rate start high....we now have right wing idiots pointing to the declining death rate from that temporary high point. Ironically funny on some level as they both use the same bad analytics to argue the opposite points.

3) The untested deaths premise is unlikely to change the numbers much. If a lot of them existed, there would be a bad outbreak in that locale like the Seattle issue and the CDC would have investigated. There may be some but not a significant number. Now if you're arguing reported cases and not deaths then that's a different animal entirely. Exhibit A would be the Seattle nursing home, this disease doesn't just pick someone off here or there it spreads easily when people are unaware and take no precautions with the person that died of "pnuemonia" in your example and your scenario would thus create easily identifiable hot spots to create enough deaths to move the needle.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:10 AM
 
Location: NMB, SC
43,094 posts, read 18,259,632 times
Reputation: 34971
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Arizona is one of the younger states in the country. The median age in Phoenix is around 34, statewide 38. There are a lot of old people too, but many are seasonal and hopefully they are going back north now.

Arizona and Florida provide an interesting test of whether summer may slow down the virus. Both states now have temperatures and UV indices that pass for "summer" in the upper midwest.
Africa/South America already have those temps/humidity. WHO already has evidence that this will not die out in the summer.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...c/myth-busters

COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in areas with hot and humid climates

From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:11 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,573 posts, read 17,286,360 times
Reputation: 37320
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stylo View Post
That math makes no sense. New cases don’t die right away, it takes weeks.

However, one thing is for sure. Many many more than 8k have it.
We're about to see a spike in cases, but that's only because the backlog of samples is being tested at a much faster rate.
Still, by end of year we will see millions of cases, and therefore more than one hundred thousand dead.
Probably 200,000 cases at the end of March, which started with 106.


Vaccine next year.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:12 AM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
21,752 posts, read 28,086,032 times
Reputation: 6710
Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
Africa/South America already have those temps/humidity. WHO already has evidence that this will not die out in the summer.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...c/myth-busters

COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in areas with hot and humid climates

From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather.
Flu can be transmitted in hot weather too.

It’s not a matter of whether it can spread or not. It’s the rate. That’s still unknown.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
21,752 posts, read 28,086,032 times
Reputation: 6710
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
We're about to see a spike in cases, but that's only because the backlog of samples is being tested at a much faster rate.
Still, by end of year we will see millions of cases, and therefore more than one hundred thousand dead.
Probably 200,000 cases at the end of March, which started with 106.


Vaccine next year.
I’m optimistic the death rate is lower than 1%.

No one is doing 100% testing. Not even close.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:14 AM
 
78,408 posts, read 60,593,823 times
Reputation: 49691
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
The thing about these statistics is you won't know the true mortality rate for some time.

In the US we've had 155 deaths out of 9477 cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

So yeah, that's only 1.6%.

However, of those 9477, 9214 are considered active cases. A case can be resolved in two ways: the person recovers, or dies.
In the US we have 108 cases recovered.

So the death rate among resolved cases is 155 / (155+108) = 59%
Ok, I missed this beautiful post first pass thru. Well done.

See, we have one group of political hacks more or less pointing to the 59% number and another pointing to the 1.6% number....neither of which is a correct estimator of the final death rate.

I fully agree that cases are under-reported. This is a worldwide problem as some people just don't get sick enough to get tested although that has probably started to change but there can be asymptomatic carriers.

I have no way of quantifying if the US under-reporting is worse than average.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:15 AM
 
Location: East Lansing, MI
28,353 posts, read 16,381,866 times
Reputation: 10467
Quote:
Originally Posted by vacommonwealth View Post
Very encouraging numbers...

Because it's garbage math.

Mr. Gestetner may be right, or he might be horribly wrong. The point is, there isn't enough data yet to give an intelligent answer.

The "resolved cases" data upthread is closer, but still has problems.
 
Old 03-19-2020, 08:23 AM
 
Location: NMB, SC
43,094 posts, read 18,259,632 times
Reputation: 34971
The CFR this morning is 4.0% approaching 4.1%

The CFR though is not a projection nor an estimate. It is a datapoint in the timeline of this virus progression.
It is the Case Fatality Rate using confirmed cases/deaths. This is a factual data point.

It was 3.4% early on with only China. As it spread throughout the world though it is going up.

Here's a scientific research paper that explains it:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...going-outbreak
It is straightforward to understand what the CFR is. The case fatality rate is the share who died from the disease among individuals diagnosed with the disease.

It is simply the ratio between the number of confirmed deaths from the disease and the number of confirmed cases (not total cases).
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