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the most interesting thing in that list is that the number of reported cases is doubling every 3 days.
the death rate at 1.8 is 18 times that of the flu which kills 12k per year.
Italy's death rate is at or near 8% as of Friday. That number is based on the fact that the system is overwhelmed.
If we can keep that from happening here, we can certainly keep the death rate to a minimum but a surge in cases in the next 14 days will break our system.
i do think we can push the wave out and "flatten the curve" if we are smart.
smart means social distancing, really good hygene and DONT PANIC.
oh and stop buying toilet paper. you are all home. you all have running water.
you can always clean yourself. geez.
Cases are going up because more people are being tested as tests become more available.
And Italy's death rate is higher because they have a lot of older, more vulnerable people there.
Average age in Italy is something like 10 years older than America.
They just don't get it, economy will be ruined if this thing goes on and on and on forever.
Look at china, suck it up for a month or two and I am pretty sure their economy will bounce back very soon.
Italy, well, God helps us all
With about 60 million inhabitants, Italy has about the same number of people as the Hubei province of China, which accounted for the vast majority of Chinese cases (2 to 3 times as many as Italy has so far).
Hubei is already recovering, the most important city of Wuhan (kind of the equivalent of Milan in Italy) is gradually relaxing the restrictions.
There is no reason why Italy should not go the same way 6 weeks from now.
They keep on saying the most vulnerable group are the older generation, that is the wrong approach
The most vulnerable group are our doctors, nurses, EMT, firefighters.. They go down, we go down.
Yet EMT's and firefighters get paid peanuts while congress gets paid big bucks. Nurses do a little better but after years of education, shifts and long hours.
You can't do a long range plan, we are almost incapable of a short range plan, though that is improving.
What do you think should happen?
Slow the progression, shore up your medical system, set up for home care of individuals with food / Rx delivery, work on treatment protocols, work on vaccine, etc.
I think we should not go total lock down as Italy is doing as I think the cure will be worse than the disease.
Basically I think we should do what we did in the Spanish Flu which is flattening the curve but not by lock-down but by social distancing. Let people work but work smartly - free hand sanitizer, no big meetings, etc. Most cities banned all public events in the Spanish flu. Some schools were closed but not all. We should do the same thing.
People will die whatever we do. But I think it is likely that this virus could become endemic which means it never goes away, it just keeps mutating and coming back. We cannot have a strategy that is based on shutting down our society every time it re-emerges and this is what I am smelling here.
I think we need to learn to live with it but gradually.
Yet EMT's and firefighters get paid peanuts while congress gets paid big bucks. Nurses do a little better but after years of education, shifts and long hours.
With about 60 million inhabitants, Italy has about the same number of people as the Hubei province of China, which accounted for the vast majority of Chinese cases (2 to 3 times as many as Italy has so far).
Hubei is already recovering, the most important city of Wuhan (kind of the equivalent of Milan in Italy) is gradually relaxing the restrictions.
There is no reason why Italy should not go the same way 6 weeks from now.
yeah I think Italy will recover too, but it is going to be a very long and painful recovery. Totally unnecessary.
Italy chose to drag this thing on and on, China? suck it up and deal with it.
yeah I think Italy will recover too, but it is going to be a very long and painful recovery. Totally unnecessary.
Italy chose to drag this thing on and on, China? suck it up and deal with it.
Europe unfortunately has Schengen, the agreement that ensures open borders and made EU countries refrain from closing their borders early on. China, once they woke up and realized the size of this thing, completely sealed off the entire Hubei province, thus protecting the rest of the country. The EU didn't do that, and now basically the whole continent is contaminated. Same thing seems to be happening in the US now.
Europe unfortunately has Schengen, the agreement that ensures open borders and made EU countries refrain from closing their borders early on. China, once they woke up and realized the size of this thing, completely sealed off the entire Hubei province, thus protecting the rest of the country. The EU didn't do that, and now basically the whole continent is contaminated.
Yet EMT's and firefighters get paid peanuts while congress gets paid big bucks. Nurses do a little better but after years of education, shifts and long hours.
This whole crisis is exposing the shortcomings of the US economic structure. The entire restaurant and hospitality industry along with local labor contractors have zero health care coverage, zero work-from-home or unemployment benefits. In addition, local restaurants and bars will lay off staff and not be receiving subsidies or bailouts yet will suffer most of the fallout of any self quarantine.
There are going to be huge numbers of people going broke from this - which in turn will further tank the already plunging economy.
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