Coronavirus News/Updates Pt. 2 (Missouri, laws, website, health care)
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no it's not. There must be at least a 10 fold number of cases that are not reported, so the death rate is much less.
Take that 3.4% death rate, and divide that by 10.
0.34% is the more realistic death rate. I don't care what anyone says.
stop overreacting with that "100x deadlier" nonsense.
Think about it logically. How can something so mild be 100x more deadly than the common flu when the symptoms are so similar?
No one is coughing to death except the ones who would have coughed to death with the regular flu. Also, most kids are spared from covid symptoms.
Coronavirus started to spread around the end of last year.
Year to date, the common flu has killed 18,000 people already in the USA, which dwarfs the number of deaths from COVID19 even in China.
since many COVID carriers are asymptomatic, she must have been hanging out with those people
For starters, putting a hundred carriage returns in your post does not make it more convincing. Fixed that for you.
Okay so please feel free to check my math for yourself:
Quote:
COVID-19 is more airbore than the flu. It survives longer on surfaces than the flu. It has an incubation period. The flu doesn't. The COVID-19 incubation period lasts anywhere between 1 and 27 days, and all the while you're contagious. So you have no clue that you've got the thing, but you're spreading the disease anyways.
So what about lethality. The 2009 flu "pandemic" ended up being a fairly average flu season. About 1.4 billion people got the H1N1 "swine flu". The highest estimate of fatalities is 575,400. If we go with the maximums, we come out with a death rate of 0.04%.
There are 128,343 confirmed COVID-19 cases right now. This genie just barely got out of the bottle. With that tiny start, it's already killed 4720 people and that's not even counting deaths that China and Iran refuse to admit to. In most of the cases, we're still waiting to see whether the victims live or die, so we really shouldn't factor the full total in. Still, just for fun, let's do so anyways. COVID-19 has killed 3.7% of everyone who's caught it, which would make it 92.5 times more deadly than the Swine Flu. But if we do the numbers right, we look at the total recovered 68,324 vs the 4720 dead. Added together, we have all COVID-19 cases that have reached a final resolution. That's where you get the kill rate for this thing.
68,324 + 4720 = 73044
4720 / 73,044 = 6.4%
So that's 160 times deadlier than the Swine Flu.
What does that look like when it reaches the same kind of numbers as a flu outbreak?
1 billion COVID-19 cases = 64 million dead people
2 billion COVID-19 cases = 128 million dead people
3 billion COVID-19 cases = 256 million dead people
4 billion COVID-19 cases = 512 million dead people
Yeah that's one helluva lot scarier than the flu. And remember, this thing is more contagious and one helluva lot better at spreading than the flu, so it certainly can reach a few billion victims.
Numbers on the swine flu or any other flu are easy enough to find just about anywhere. I used Wikipedia but there's a ton of other sources to find the same numbers.
Trump already somewhat admitted this when he stated he didn't want those on the cruise shop to be docked and released on American soil because the numbers would go up and he liked them where they were. He said that in front of a camera.
None of us really know how bad this is going to get but it's not reassuring knowing we have a president who had downplayed the seriousness of COVID-19 and has not been transparent from the get go.
Trump already somewhat admitted this when he stated he didn't want those on the cruise shop to be docked and released on American soil because the numbers would go up and he liked them where they were. He said that in front of a camera.
None of us really know how bad this is going to get but it's not reassuring knowing we have a president who had downplayed the seriousness of COVID-19 and has not been transparent from the get go.
Granted the guy contradicts himself a lot, but I specifically remember him saying something to the effect that he wanted the passengers of the Grand Princess off of the ship so it doesn't end up being another Diamond Princess scenario.
As a person who is much more at risk of getting killed by COVID-19, I have mixed feelings about Trump's handling of it. It's true that he shut down travel from China early on. That was a good move. It's also true that he tried to cut funding to the CDC a few years back, but was stopped by Congress. That's bad. The CDC's test kits failed miserably. Not really sure that's got anything to do with Trump but it's certainly bad. Despite our massive population and massive trade relationship with China, we have relatively few cases and deaths from this little bug. That's a good thing.
And then there's the biased news media constantly trying to blow smoke up our butts putting their own spin on it. Not useful at all, but certainly well calculated to cause panic. When Chicken Little is doing his Chicken Little "the sky is falling" thing, and nothing much is going on, we tend to ignore him. When there's a real crisis going on, people start to listen against their better judgement.
But somebody please explain this part to me. WHY TOILET PAPER?? OF ALL THE THINGS TO HOARD AND FIGHT IN THE STORE OVER, WHY IN THE NAME OF ALL THAT IS HOLY IS IT TOILET PAPER????
The first wave of Bubonic plague came from the middle east and traveled east to Mongolia. The second wave brought it back west. But so what?
HIV came from Africa.
H1N1 came from Mexico.
Ebola is African.
Spanish flu, the biggest killer of all time has been pegged at American in origin by some (it was first ID'ed in Kansas) but realistically it is unknown.
Why do some people want to blame China? Pathogens are part of our biome. We live with them daily.
Didn’t read the links I guess. Scientists traced the Bubonic Plague to China in 2010. The first influenza virus epidemic came from there it appears. I wasn’t necessarily blaming China for those other viruses. How could they be responsible for viruses coming about in 14th century, before anyone even knew about germs? But I definitely lay this particular virus on China.
no it's not. There must be at least a 10 fold number of cases that are not reported, so the death rate is much less.
Take that 3.4% death rate, and divide that by 10.
0.34% is the more realistic death rate. I don't care what anyone says.
stop overreacting with that "100x deadlier" nonsense.
Think about it logically. How can something so mild be 100x more deadly than the common flu when the symptoms are so similar?
No one is coughing to death except the ones who would have coughed to death with the regular flu. Also, most kids are spared from covid symptoms.
Coronavirus started to spread around the end of last year.
Year to date, the common flu has killed 18,000 people already in the USA, which dwarfs the number of deaths from COVID19 even in China.
since many COVID carriers are asymptomatic, she must have been hanging out with those people
The disease has only just begun in the US. What happened with the flu has no bearing whatsoever on what may happen with coronavirus. China which used HARDBALL methods to contain the spread, literally nailing buildings shut, is also a false equivalency. The only reason coronavirus didn't spread throughout China was their HARDBALL methods. China successfully contained it.
There are lots of detailed articles all over in how this virus worms its way into the vulnerable and the damage it can do. One can also relapse. Even when one is 'recovered' one can shed the virus and infect others. I heard a doc on TV tonight say exactly that.
The fact is the virus is lethal for 15-20% of the over 70, especially males, who get it. The ICU's have been overrun in Italy. Italy is not treating anyone over 65 who presents at a hospital with a comorbidity. In other words, if you are at all compromised, they go on to the healthier patient.
Virtually every resident in the WA nursing home who has tested positive has eventually died.
If the virus finds it way from the throat to the lungs it can do serious damage to heart and lungs - and nervous system.
This is NOT the flu. It is NOT a cold. Symptoms are a hybrid of the two. Generally, fever, sore throat, cough. And, then, later into the lungs if you don't fight it off. This is when it gets bad. Virus take weeks to progress from mild to severe. You think you're improving and you're not - you're just moving to the next stage.
Recovery can take three-eight weeks, often leaving permanent damage.
The reality is this is a very nasty bug - -especially for the wrong people.
If too many present with complications at the same time, the medical system in this country won't be able to handle it. Witness Italy and Wuhan.
Harvard epidemiologist on CNBC tonight said we could have 1,000 deaths a day. I heard weeks ago from a Republican doctor, up to 70% could become infected, 20% of those hospitalized, 10% of those dead.
Death rate among confirmed cases IS 2-4%.
There have been many posts and links on Part 1 of this thread and on the coronavirus thread on current events bearing out every word of the above.
This is especially dangerous for old people who can get it from their kids and grandkids. Which is why testing is so important. One can be young and not think it's a big deal, visit grandma and grandpa - and six weeks later you're at their funeral.
This Not Nothing.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 03-13-2020 at 12:55 AM..
I did my own math because I don't trust other people to do it for me. People tend to lie for their own ulterior motives.
Your math is OK but your analysis is faulty. That 6.4% you calculated is the percent of confirmed cases, not total cases but you are multiplying by a made-up number of total cases. We have no idea what the total cases will be but it is worth noting that the worst hit province in the world, Hubei, had 4000 deaths out of 60 million people. If it were the US we would have 16,000 deaths. That is way lower than your projections.
How did South Korea successfully and quickly mass test their population...quarantining all positives and why can't America do that too?! Cat out of the bag now...still needs to be done! Hope we don't look like Italy in a few weeks!
Yeah, I’m surprised this one above your post is not on some elite medical team specializing in pandemics...or either just a know it all, smart-ass blowhard.
The fact that you think someone possessing common knowledge is worthy of being on a specialized pandemics medical team speaks volume about IQ of the right-wing.
The same group who thinks windmills cause cancer is also the same people who are saying COVID19 is just a flu.
IMPORTANT: Beware of Fake Coronavirus Treatment Sold by Right-Wing Pundits
Low-life scums like Alex Jones are selling treatments for the coronavirus. They are fake!!! Folks (especially right-wingers) don't fall for it - there are no cure for COVID19.
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