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Reality did not force an adjustment, the adjustment was from the fact actions are being taken, actions recommended by doctors to mitigate the number of people dying.
From his own words;
"Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)"
He has stated that it remains that the 500k figure is correct absent the actions "controls" implemented.
No one ever said it was the end of the world, models however said it will be for a lot of people if actions were not taken.
Many more people would be dying if actions were not taken, when ICU space runs out.
They were just scenarios, and tbh the initial papers are now outdated as the entire country is in lockdown meaning it's diofficult to pass the virus.
However the true figure remains to be seen, as NHS workers and key workers and other may yet pass on the virus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by National Review
A narrative rocketed around social media earlier today: An Imperial College study said that COVID-19 could kill 500,000 Brits, but in recent testimony, Neil Ferguson, the head of the group behind the study, put the number below 20,000. Clearly the lying alarmist was walking back his ridiculous predictions!
Well, no. The paper actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5)
Since the paper came out, Great Britain has adopted a strategy of aggressively containing the virus and expanded its intensive-care capacity, so a prediction of a much lower death toll and less stress on ICUs hardly seems surprising.
Models like this will always turn out to be wrong in some way or other, because they rely on very strong assumptions about aspects of the disease we haven’t thoroughly studied yet. If nothing else, the original Imperial model will be obsolete soon, because it didn’t predict what could happen with extensive testing and contact tracing, which is likely the next step once the spread is contained and we have enough tests to go around. But it hasn’t been walked back just yet.
Reality did not force an adjustment, the adjustment was from the fact actions are being taken, actions recommended by doctors to mitigate the number of people dying.
From his own words;
"Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)"
He has stated that it remains that the 500k figure is correct absent the actions "controls" implemented.
No one ever said it was the end of the world, models however said it will be for a lot of people if actions were not taken.
Many more people would be dying if actions were not taken, when ICU space runs out.
Hey chief, unless you can divine the future, even without controls, there's no telling how many people would have died regardless of the rate of transmission. The 500K number is an educated guess based on data modeling and if the data is either intentionally manipulated or unintentionally skewed by differences in reporting standards, the models are going to produce garbage.
It might turn out that millions of people have already had this virus and have built up antibodies against it. We don't know. However, what we do know is that it came from China, they are culpable for it, the attempts to use the response to hurt Trump politically have backfired, capitalism and innovators are far superior problem solvers than bureaucrats pointing the finger at each other, and that this heralds the end of globalism and open borders.
Hey chief, unless you can divine the future, even without controls, there's no telling how many people would have died regardless of the rate of transmission. The 500K number is an educated guess based on data modeling and if the data is either intentionally manipulated or unintentionally skewed by differences in reporting standards, the models are going to produce garbage.
It might turn out that millions of people have already had this virus and have built up antibodies against it. We don't know. However, what we do know is that it came from China, they are culpable for it, the attempts to use the response to hurt Trump politically have backfired, capitalism and innovators are far superior problem solvers than bureaucrats pointing the finger at each other, and that this heralds the end of globalism and open borders.
Yes, the virus is both harmless and no significant measures are needed and also millions of people in China have perished because of this harmless virus even with extreme lockdown measures because China is lying about their deaths. Trumpsters believe both is true.
Hey chief, unless you can divine the future, even without controls, there's no telling how many people would have died regardless of the rate of transmission. The 500K number is an educated guess based on data modeling and if the data is either intentionally manipulated or unintentionally skewed by differences in reporting standards, the models are going to produce garbage.
It might turn out that millions of people have already had this virus and have built up antibodies against it. We don't know. However, what we do know is that it came from China, they are culpable for it, the attempts to use the response to hurt Trump politically have backfired, capitalism and innovators are far superior problem solvers than bureaucrats pointing the finger at each other, and that this heralds the end of globalism and open borders.
He's full of it. Unless you are old and/or otherwise health and immune system compromised, your chances of dying from this virus are very, very small. Little more than from a normal flu.
Hey chief, unless you can divine the future, even without controls, there's no telling how many people would have died regardless of the rate of transmission. The 500K number is an educated guess based on data modeling and if the data is either intentionally manipulated or unintentionally skewed by differences in reporting standards, the models are going to produce garbage.
It might turn out that millions of people have already had this virus and have built up antibodies against it. We don't know. However, what we do know is that it came from China, they are culpable for it, the attempts to use the response to hurt Trump politically have backfired, capitalism and innovators are far superior problem solvers than bureaucrats pointing the finger at each other, and that this heralds the end of globalism and open borders.
These studies are just used in order that they can look at ways of reducing deaths.
The fact that other than some key workers the entire country is locked in their homes and self isolating has had a big impact, and there are now fines and spot checks in relation to anyone venturing out.
This is unpreceded, and is why the figure is being reduced, and hopefully will be reduced further through continueds testing of health workers and others.
The worst figure in UK history remains the Spanish flu at 250,000, however at the time there was no lockdown, and without a lockdown this virus had the potential to kill hundreds of thousands.
In terms of the Soanish flu, it wasn't really Spanish and one of the potential starting points of the virus was Kansas in the US, were it fitst broke out on a US Army base in 1918.
The current break out was from China, and the world needs to pressure China in to changing it's policies in relation to eating certain animals and in relation to wet markets.
He's full of it. Unless you are old and/or otherwise health and immune system compromised, your chances of dying from this virus are very, very small. Little more than from a normal flu.
That means 100 million people with high blood pressure. Obese people, it means smokers. It means diabetics. The list goes on and on and on. Huge numbers of people are in the risk group. Thats why 20% need to be hospitalized. You're hospitalized if you cough blood, need oxygen to breathe properly etc. This isnt the normal flu.
Yes, the virus is both harmless and no significant measures are needed and also millions of people in China have perished because of this harmless virus even with extreme lockdown measures because China is lying about their deaths. Trumpsters believe both is true.
Yes, that was exactly what I was saying, and with super smart people like you around to draw accurate meanings from words and events, we should have nothing to worry about.
Tell you what, professor. Voters aren't blaming this virus and the downturn in the markets on Trump. They have noticed that leftists put their agenda before peoples' lives and livelihood.
He's full of it. Unless you are old and/or otherwise health and immune system compromised, your chances of dying from this virus are very, very small. Little more than from a normal flu.
Yeah, I think I might have had this back in January. Out of the blue, I came down with a persistent headache, cough, and was spitting up lung butter for a little over a week. I used Nyquil, Mucinex, aspirin, and bourbon to kill it. I'm not sure, but it came out of nowhere and didn't really slow me down all that much.
These studies are just used in order that they can look at ways of reducing deaths.
The fact that other than some key workers the entire country is locked in their homes and self isolating has had a big impact, and there are now fines and spot checks in relation to anyone venturing out.
This is unpreceded, and is why the figure is being reduced, and hopefully will be reduced further through continueds testing of health workers and others.
The worst figure in UK history remains the Spanish flu at 250,000, however at the time there was no lockdown, and without a lockdown this virus had the potential to kill hundreds of thousands.
In terms of the Soanish flu, it wasn't really Spanish and one of the potential starting points of the virus was Kansas in the US, were it fitst broke out on a US Army base in 1918.
The current break out was from China, and the world needs to pressure China in to changing it's policies in relation to eating certain animals and in relation to wet markets.
Yes, that was exactly what I was saying, and with super smart people like you around to draw accurate meanings from words and events, we should have nothing to worry about.
Tell you what, professor. Voters aren't blaming this virus and the downturn in the markets on Trump. They have noticed that leftists put their agenda before peoples' lives and livelihood.
Last I checked "the leftists" didn't control the presidency nor the senate.
This is yet the latest example of how republicans aren't in charge even though they are in charge. They are always under the thumb of "the leftists". They are in charge of 2/3rds of the government but "the leftists" are in control.
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