Horowitz: WHEN did coronavirus begin in the US? And why it matters

[hooligan]

Originally Posted by Pilot1

I disagree with Trump not recommending reopening to the Governors sooner. However, he is in a no win situation, especially with a MEDIA that is 98% anti Trump and just purveyors of Propaganda. What would you have him do or say?

"My COVID-19 Task Force recommends xxxxxxx, I strongly suggest that be the guidance that every state in the union follows. However, the ultimate decisions are obviously the individual governors to make."

[moneill]

THe problem with Trump's reopen strategy was that he first suggested a strategy that would play well for a movie's big happy ending but wasn't practical or based in reality at all.

So that set the tone from the admin.

They then suggest guidelines --- some issues with the guidelines --- gyms in phase one -- what?.......and really not based on reality.

But then this federal government just stops -- that's it - that's their strategy. The federal guideline should lead the country in how testing and tracing can be done to allow for a return to some kind of normalcy and still addressing the potential for the virus.

Interestingly enough that common sense doesn't prevail. I made a comment elsewhere about how a tattoo parlor in the first phase is not a good idea. People thought I was objecting to tattoos... No not all. Tattoo parlors NEED and USE PPE all the time. AT a time when many of the reputable tattoo places gave up their PPE to help front liners......what kind of common sense is there in opening up an industry that needs so many PPE and aren't really economic engines for any community

[Arya Stark]

Originally Posted by moneill

So many people are saying they think that's what they had in November/December.....and not people living in New York City or LA -- the Dells in Wisconsin in winter -- where would you be getting a virus from Wuhan ---

Still say it could be likely based on travel -- how did Michigan get so bad?

I have an appointment with my doctor (via my phone) this afternoon... I am asking for an antibody test.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by erasure

Again - the Chinese doctor posted the warning to his colleagues about quite a few cases of virus (already spreading, apparently in Wuhan) on December 30th.
Between December 30th and January 23 ( when Chinese authorities put the city on a lockdown,) 5 million people left the city and went to different points of destinations ( US including.)
So 6th of February sounds about right, if to take in consideration 2 weeks or less of incubation period.)

No, it doesn't sound about right, because that's not how it works.

The peer-reviewed clinically accepted definition of epidemic by certified epidemiologists is "more disease than anticipated over a given time period."

We have 17 hospitals where I live and in any given month, about a dozen people show up in ERs presenting with symptoms of E. Coli.

Sorry, but that is not an epidemic no matter how much people rant and protest.

But, 12 people showing up at the same hospital within 8-12 hours, that is an epidemic, because that is more diseases than anticipated over a given time period. Ohio statutes require the hospital to notify the county board of health who will determine whether it goes any further than that. If all 12 victims were at a family picnic, it won't go any further than that, but if they all ate at Chipotle, the State Department of Health will be notified who will in turn notify the CDC who will in turn notify the USDA and FDA and they will track down the source of contaminant and shut it down.

COVID-19 was operative in August/September of 2019.

COVID-19 does not result in automatic hospitalization. Only about 20%-22% require hospitalization in any form.

In August/September, infected people who are asymptomatic or had flu-like systems for 2-10 days are walking around spreading COVID-19 to everyone, including Americans, Canadians, Brits, Italians, French, Spanish and others who are in Wuhan on business and they take COVID-19 back to their respective countries.

One person showing up at one of China's 33,000 hospitals with flu-like symptoms in September is not an epidemic no matter how much people protest and will trigger no action in China for the same reason it would trigger no action in America. It's not an epidemic.

By October, dozens of people are showing up in Chinese hospitals, but it is not an epidemic. After all, it is Flu Season and during Flu Season you expect to see more people with flu-like symptoms.

Dozens of people showing up at any one of the 5,235 hospitals in America in October is not an epidemic, either.

By November, a lot of people are showing up in Chinese hospitals with flu-like symptoms, but still not enough to trigger an alert.

But that is 3 months -- 3 months of asymptomatic carriers and others who had symptoms for 2-10 days spreading it all over, including spreading it to foreigners in Wuhan for business or pleasure.

By December, it is an epidemic. There are more cases than anticipated, even when you factor in Flu Season.

Tests keep showing it is not influenza, but other tests hint at corona virus in some cases.

Yes, there is a corona virus test. There are tests for all four strains of corona virus that cause the common cold and there are tests for the dozen strains of corona virus that cause flu-like symptoms which can progress to pneumonia and result in death.

It appears to be corona virus, but not exactly. It is finally determined to be a mutation of COVID-2, which is one of the dozen strains of corona virus that present as flu symptoms.

But that is late December.

By that time in the US, you already have 10s of 1,000s of people spreading COVID-19 and probably had several deaths in November and December, but nobody knew it was COVID-19 because nobody was looking for it.

If one person showed up at one of the 5,235 hospitals in November with flu-like symptoms during Flu Season and it progress to pneumonia and they died, no one is going to think anything of it, because that is perfectly normal.

You could, of course, spend $10,000s digging up dead bodies and testing, but there's really no point in it.

Originally Posted by mike0618

My 18 yr old Daughter was pneumonia but flu negative.

Flu tests are not 100% accurate and often give false positives and false negatives.

Age is a factor in the accuracy of the flu test.

The elderly have high rates of false positives.

For middle-aged people, there is a high rate of false positives and false negatives.

For young people there is a high rate of false negatives.

It has to do with the "sensitivity" of the tests, which rely heavily on virus shedding which occurs at different rates based on age.

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

I am confident a lot of COVID-19 cases got misdiagnosed as pneumonia in December and January.

It's not a misdiagnosis.

Pneumonia may be the result of either viral or bacterial infection.

There is a vaccine for bacterial pneumonia, but not for viral pneumonia.

Viral pneumonia is caused by corona, influenza, parainfluenza, adenovirus and respiratory synctical virus and there are no vaccines for any of those virus.

Think of viral pneumonia as the end-stage of those viral infections just as the end-stage of many kidney diseases can be renal failure, although not always.

[MI1287]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

Still say it could be likely based on travel -- how did Michigan get so bad?

I have an appointment with my doctor (via my phone) this afternoon... I am asking for an antibody test.

DTW is a major Asian international hub for Delta.

[Mad_Jasper]

Originally Posted by Grlzrl

I know a few people who said something similar. My friend has a horrible cough as did her son for 2 months starting mid to late December. There are a bunch of people saying similar on our local mom's FB page. My friend said her doctor told her it was a virus, it lasted 2 months and there was nothing they could do.

My daughter and I had a very similar experience. I ran a fever, although mostly low grade, for 3 days. I had some congestion, but not like that of a sinus infection (I get a bad one once a year or so). I had a terrible cough that lasted for days. Aches and pains, especially afterward from coughing. The flu test was negative. I missed a week of work (I work from home) and was mostly out of commission for about 8 days.

My daughter became ill about a week to ten days later. Her symptoms mirrored mine but not as severe or as long. Again, a negative flu test.

Around the same period, my coworkers became ill. Same symptoms, negative on the flu.

We all were connected via work travel to Atlanta and it was mostly isolated to those that traveled to Atlanta. There were lots of jokes about coronavirus as we were having discussions on how to accommodate an increase in teleworkers.

I think it's unlikely that we had it based on other factors, but then again, I would not be surprised if we did.

[hooligan]

Originally Posted by MI1287

DTW is a major Asian international hub for Delta.

Bingo.

Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport.

Where are nearly half of all cases in MI? Wayne County (to include Detroit City even though Detroit's stats are tracked separately). That's one county out of 81, and it has approx half of the total cases.

Wayne is also the most densely populated county in the state, but Kent County (Grand Rapids) is nearly half the population of Wayne County and has 757 CV-19 cases compared to Wayne's ~14,500.

[suzy_q2010]

Originally Posted by Grlzrl

And you know this because.....?

Because if you had it you had already recovered, and the vascular problems that cause the skin lesions are not confined to one tiny area of skin.

Originally Posted by Mircea

No, it doesn't sound about right, because that's not how it works.

The peer-reviewed clinically accepted definition of epidemic by certified epidemiologists is "more disease than anticipated over a given time period."

We have 17 hospitals where I live and in any given month, about a dozen people show up in ERs presenting with symptoms of E. Coli.

Sorry, but that is not an epidemic no matter how much people rant and protest.

But, 12 people showing up at the same hospital within 8-12 hours, that is an epidemic, because that is more diseases than anticipated over a given time period. Ohio statutes require the hospital to notify the county board of health who will determine whether it goes any further than that. If all 12 victims were at a family picnic, it won't go any further than that, but if they all ate at Chipotle, the State Department of Health will be notified who will in turn notify the CDC who will in turn notify the USDA and FDA and they will track down the source of contaminant and shut it down.

COVID-19 was operative in August/September of 2019.

COVID-19 does not result in automatic hospitalization. Only about 20%-22% require hospitalization in any form.

In August/September, infected people who are asymptomatic or had flu-like systems for 2-10 days are walking around spreading COVID-19 to everyone, including Americans, Canadians, Brits, Italians, French, Spanish and others who are in Wuhan on business and they take COVID-19 back to their respective countries.

One person showing up at one of China's 33,000 hospitals with flu-like symptoms in September is not an epidemic no matter how much people protest and will trigger no action in China for the same reason it would trigger no action in America. It's not an epidemic.

By October, dozens of people are showing up in Chinese hospitals, but it is not an epidemic. After all, it is Flu Season and during Flu Season you expect to see more people with flu-like symptoms.

Dozens of people showing up at any one of the 5,235 hospitals in America in October is not an epidemic, either.

By November, a lot of people are showing up in Chinese hospitals with flu-like symptoms, but still not enough to trigger an alert.

But that is 3 months -- 3 months of asymptomatic carriers and others who had symptoms for 2-10 days spreading it all over, including spreading it to foreigners in Wuhan for business or pleasure.

By December, it is an epidemic. There are more cases than anticipated, even when you factor in Flu Season.

Tests keep showing it is not influenza, but other tests hint at corona virus in some cases.

Yes, there is a corona virus test. There are tests for all four strains of corona virus that cause the common cold and there are tests for the dozen strains of corona virus that cause flu-like symptoms which can progress to pneumonia and result in death.

It appears to be corona virus, but not exactly. It is finally determined to be a mutation of COVID-2, which is one of the dozen strains of corona virus that present as flu symptoms.

But that is late December.

By that time in the US, you already have 10s of 1,000s of people spreading COVID-19 and probably had several deaths in November and December, but nobody knew it was COVID-19 because nobody was looking for it.

If one person showed up at one of the 5,235 hospitals in November with flu-like symptoms during Flu Season and it progress to pneumonia and they died, no one is going to think anything of it, because that is perfectly normal.

You could, of course, spend $10,000s digging up dead bodies and testing, but there's really no point in it.



Flu tests are not 100% accurate and often give false positives and false negatives.

Age is a factor in the accuracy of the flu test.

The elderly have high rates of false positives.

For middle-aged people, there is a high rate of false positives and false negatives.

For young people there is a high rate of false negatives.

It has to do with the "sensitivity" of the tests, which rely heavily on virus shedding which occurs at different rates based on age.



It's not a misdiagnosis.

Pneumonia may be the result of either viral or bacterial infection.

There is a vaccine for bacterial pneumonia, but not for viral pneumonia.

Viral pneumonia is caused by corona, influenza, parainfluenza, adenovirus and respiratory synctical virus and there are no vaccines for any of those virus.

Think of viral pneumonia as the end-stage of those viral infections just as the end-stage of many kidney diseases can be renal failure, although not always.

Your E. coli example would probably be called an outbreak rather than an epidemic because it was highly localized. Definitions here:

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss19...section11.html

It is not necessary to exhume bodies to look for antibodies earlier in 2019. There will be blood samples archived for various reasons that can be tested.

Your source for the effect of age on the accuracy of testing for influenza? I do not see that as a factor here.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professional...dance_ridt.htm

There are indeed vaccines for influenza and one for adenovirus, although that one is only used by the military.

[Arya Stark]

More than 20 percent of New York City residents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in a study launched by Governor Cuomo which, if accurate, means as many as 1.7million people have been infected in the city - and that the mortality rate is between 0.6 and 0.8 percent, far greater than the 0.1 percent mortality rate of the flu.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...mos-study.html

DOH.

[Arya Stark]

BTW my doctor refused the anti body test.

He said he was "scared" that the test wouldn't be accurate and he didn't want me to get a false sense of security. BULL, they just know their little grab for power is about to come to an end.