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Old 03-29-2020, 10:23 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,516,836 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
If that happens that would be the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu killed 675,000 Americans in a country of 106 million. Today we have over triple the population, so the Spanish Flu will be much worse.

Covid-19 will unfortunately easily pass the swine flu a decade ago that had 10,000 Americans die.
Annual estimated flu deaths (CDC)

2010-2011 - 37,000
2011-2012 - 12,000
2012-2013 - 43,000
2013-2014 - 38,000
2014-2015 - 51,000
2015-2016 - 23,000
2016-2017 - 38,000
2017-2018 - 61,000
2018-2019 - 34,157
Avg annual - 37,462

So every year, the deaths from the flu exceed 10,000, usually by a factor of nearly 4 times that amount and frequently quite a bit more than that.

Last edited by Spartacus713; 03-29-2020 at 10:32 AM..

 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,725 posts, read 12,800,389 times
Reputation: 19281
Quote:
Originally Posted by censusdata View Post
100k is best case scenario. 1+ million more likely. This virus started with wealthy travelers and their friends, once it reaches the working class the mortality rate will skyrocket with our huge population of unhealthy people. Working class people are mostly ignoring warnings in my experience.
They have no choice because so many of them are living paycheck to paycheck.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:39 AM
 
5,527 posts, read 3,250,937 times
Reputation: 7764
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBideon View Post
100,000-200,000 is VERY conservative. We can only be so lucky it's that low.
How do you know that? Maybe you should be advising the government.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,725 posts, read 12,800,389 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TBideon View Post
100,000-200,000 is VERY conservative. We can only be so lucky it's that low.
If I knew that it would not surpass 200,000, I'd go about my normal routine starting now.

That is only 7/10th of 1% fatality rate. I'm healthy and <60, so at .7%, I'd take my chances.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:47 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,516,836 times
Reputation: 10096
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
If I knew that it would not surpass 200,000, I'd go about my normal routine starting now.

That is only 7/10th of 1% fatality rate. I'm healthy and <60, so at .7%, I'd take my chances.
Thank you for providing some reasonable perspective here.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:48 AM
 
45,676 posts, read 24,004,475 times
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I think that's his worst case scenario right?

And maybe if we had considered the worst case sooner we might not have been caught so unprepared
 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:55 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,516,836 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill View Post
I think that's his worst case scenario right?

And maybe if we had considered the worst case sooner we might not have been caught so unprepared
No, that appears to be his expectation. We will see if he is right or not soon enough.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
12,408 posts, read 9,510,794 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill View Post
I think that's his worst case scenario right?

And maybe if we had considered the worst case sooner we might not have been caught so unprepared
No, I think it's more like his middle ground estimate at this point. He's not in the modeling business, but he sees the results of the various research groups doing it, and he can take all their predictions into account. Now mind you, the outcomes still depend very much on what we do. So a precise prediction is simply not possible, even if you had a perfect model. But we have already done what we have done these past 3 months, and so getting off lightly is no longer a reasonable expectation. We already have 125K verified cases, and that's substantially an incomplete count due to limited testing capacity, and it's clear that the situation is still accelerating today.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Morrison, CO
34,230 posts, read 18,571,948 times
Reputation: 25799
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
Annual estimated flu deaths (CDC)

2010-2011 - 37,000
2011-2012 - 12,000
2012-2013 - 43,000
2013-2014 - 38,000
2014-2015 - 51,000
2015-2016 - 23,000
2016-2017 - 38,000
2017-2018 - 61,000
2018-2019 - 34,157
Avg annual - 37,462

So every year, the deaths from the flu exceed 10,000, usually by a factor of nearly 4 times that amount and frequently quite a bit more than that.

The Media is largely Democrat controlled and are all about doom and gloom right now. They don't want people to know the facts, nor that this is no more than a bad Flu. As you note, we have large numbers of people die from the Flu each year, and they are usually old and already compromised by other nasty illnesses and health issues. Not saying we shouldn't try to minimize the risks to those people, but the fact is we've never crashed the economy and shut down the country until now.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:02 AM
 
45,676 posts, read 24,004,475 times
Reputation: 15559
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
The Media is largely Democrat controlled and are all about doom and gloom right now. They don't want people to know the facts, nor that this is no more than a bad Flu. As you note, we have large numbers of people die from the Flu each year, and they are usually old and already compromised by other nasty illnesses and health issues. Not saying we shouldn't try to minimize the risks to those people, but the fact is we've never crashed the economy and shut down the country until now.
Is Dr. Fauci a Democrat?

He said it -- the media didn't make it up.

If you can show where the media misrepresented some information you might have a point.
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