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You can read my more detailed posts about this topic in the investment forum, and how I think the coronavirus is being used as a smokescreen to ram through record-setting central bank intervention across the globe, but let's look at some numbers for a second.
The coronavirus WORLDWIDE has killed about 37,000 people so far. In 2017-2018, according to the CDC, the flu, just in the United States killed over 80,000 people. The CDC also said that in 2017 the flu WORLDWIDE killed up to 650,000 people.
So where was all of the hysteria then that we are seeing now with far fewer numbers? No talk of shut downs then, no talk of lock downs, no talk of record central bank balance sheet expansion. NOTHING! Interesting to say the least.
What I think is that we were having MAJOR liquidity issues surfacing back in the summer of 2019. The Fed decided to do consecutive rate cuts at that time which made no sense whatsoever if we were truly in the "greatest economy ever." Then in September 2019, we get the repo crisis. The Fed said they would prop the repo market up for one week to help dissolve the liquidity issues that had surfaced between the banks with $50+ billion in daily repo operations. That was only supposed to last one week but then it got extended through October and turned into $100+ billion in DAILY repo operations. After October, these repo operations were extended "indefinitely."
So my point is there were major liquidity issues brewing well before any of the virus talks started. A crisis was needed (real or manufactured) as an excuse for central banks around the world to go "all in." That doesn't happen without a "crisis." The virus hysteria gave central banks the excuse to go all in.
Turn off the media for a second and think about all of it has a collective whole.
And in less than 48 hours another 7,000 people have died.
The shutdowns suck, but I dont know any other way to prevent millions of our people from dying. The mortality rate here is at 1-2%. So lets be optimistic and say 1%. If 80% of the population were to get this, that is roughly 3 million deaths in this country, alone. Is that acceptable? The shut downs are what is keeping this at bay. It is keeping us from getting to that 80%, until either the season is over (assuming it is seasonal, which we dont yet know) or we come up with treatments that keep people off ventilators. Because from what I am seeing, the people on ventilators rarely get off of them alive.
Two things.
First, the 1-2% mortality rate sounds high. It does not appear that we have that information yet. You are getting the worst cases and you are seeing this surrounded by that perspective. I am not going to insist you are wrong about those numbers, but I am going to retain an objective skepticism towards these numbers you are quoting for the time being, if you do not mind.
Second, do you remember Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs? At the base are our most fundamental needs for food, shelter, clothing, etc. Above that are basic security needs, employment, health, etc.
We are at war, as you know very well and better than most, with microbial life forms such as viruses and bacteria. It has always been so and likely always will be. This is not new. Of course all people die and many people die as casualties of this ongoing war. That is continuing, and the work that you are doing to try to mitigate those losses is admirable in the extreme.
However, despite the best efforts of our health professionals, this war will not be stopped and we also have to realize that people face many other existential threats, which they must also be able to fight back against and defend themselves from as best they can. This current threat, as important as it is, is not the only threat, nor is it transcendentally more important than many of these others.
People will do whatever they need to try to survive, and they must be allowed to do that. You are apparently not at risk from homelessness, starvation, or complete depravity, regardless of what happens with this situation. But many other people are. Your perspective is important, but as important as it is, your perspective is not the only important perspective here.
People are not going to sit on their hands and wait to lose their homes and starve to death. Only a person who is incredibly warped in their thinking would think it is reasonable to expect them to do so. This is not a sustainable solution and it will have to be modified shortly. If people are going to die, they need to be able to at least go down fighting, doing what they can to live and to survive.
Maybe they will live, maybe they will die. That is life here in this realm. It has always been so. We are going to have to take a more balanced approach to this shortly. If we do not, then the people will decide for themselves, independent of what any of the "experts" say. And a lot of them do not have very much confidence in the "experts" to begin with.
They are not just going to sit around on their hands and wait to be thrown out of their homes and to watch their families starve, which is the unfortunate conclusion of where this society wide shutdown/stay at home policy is headed if our government was so foolish as to try to impose it over the long term. It is not sustainable and whether you like it or not, or whether you think it is a good idea or not, it cannot and will not happen like that.
First, the 1-2% mortality rate sounds high. It does not appear that we have that information yet. You are getting the worst cases and you are seeing this surrounded by that perspective. I am not going to insist you are wrong about those numbers, but I am going to retain an objective skepticism towards these numbers you are quoting for the time being, if you do not mind.
Second, do you remember Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs? At the base are our most fundamental needs for food, shelter, clothing, etc. Above that are basic security needs, employment, health, etc.
We are at war, as you know very well and better than most, with microbial life forms such as viruses and bacteria. It has always been so and likely always will be. This is not new. Of course all people die and many people die as casualties of this ongoing war. That is continuing, and the work that you are doing to try to mitigate those losses is admirable in the extreme.
However, despite the best efforts of our health professionals, this war will not be stopped and we also have to realize that people face many other existential threats, which they must also be able to fight back against and defend themselves from as best they can. This current threat, as important as it is, is not the only threat, nor is it transcendentally more important than many of these others.
People will do whatever they need to try to survive, and they must be allowed to do that. You are apparently not at risk from homelessness, starvation, or complete depravity, regardless of what happens with this situation. But many other people are. Your perspective is important, but as important as it is, your perspective is not the only important perspective here.
People are not going to sit on their hands and wait to lose their homes and starve to death. Only a person who is incredibly warped in their thinking would think it is reasonable to expect them to do so. This is not a sustainable solution and it will have to be modified shortly. If people are going to die, they need to be able to at least go down fighting, doing what they can to live and to survive.
Maybe they will live, maybe they will die. That is life here in this realm. It has always been so. We are going to have to take a more balanced approach to this shortly. If we do not, then the people will decide for themselves, independent of what any of the "experts" say. And a lot of them do not have very much confidence in the "experts" to begin with.
They are not just going to sit around on their hands and wait to be thrown out of their homes and to watch their families starve, which is the unfortunate conclusion of where this society wide shutdown/stay at home policy is headed if our government was so foolish as to try to impose it over the long term. It is not sustainable and whether you like it or not, or whether you think it is a good idea or not, it cannot and will not happen like that.
I have to go, but I just wanted to quickly address the mortality rate. As of today, the US has almost 200,000 cases, and a little over 4000 deaths. So I think the 1% I used in my calculation is generous. It is allowing for double the amount of cases.
In the US all foreclosures have been stopped and you cannot be evicted from your home during this period.
Unemployment for all, gig workers, self employed, and others, unemployment PLUS $600 a week.
Most mortgage and credit card companies are working with all customers in good standing, with no reports to your credit score.
This is hardly Mad Max.
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I have to go, but I just wanted to quickly address the mortality rate. As of today, the US has almost 200,000 cases, and a little over 4000 deaths. So I think my calculation of 1% is generous.
In the US all foreclosures have been stopped and you cannot be evicted from your home during this period.
Unemployment for all, gig workers, self employed, and others, unemployment PLUS $600 a week.
Most mortgage and credit card companies are working with all customers in good standing, with no reports to your credit score.
This is hardly Mad Max.
This may sound like free stuff to you. But what leftists never seem to understand is that nothing is actually free and one day all of this will have to be paid for, one way or another.
If you or anyone who thinks like you believes that the filthy rich are going to be picking up this tab, you have got another think coming.
Also, how long will most people be able to live on $600 a week? And how long will even that last?
This may sound like free stuff to you. But what leftists never seem to understand is that nothing is actually free and one day all of this will have to be paid for, one way or another.
If you or anyone who thinks like you believes that the filthy rich are going to be picking up this tab, you have got another think coming.
Well, that is another subject now isn't it? You went all drama queen on how people are going to be evicted and starve.
I am a registered Republican BTW.
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My posts as a Mod will always be in red.
Be sure to review Terms of Service: TOS
And check this out: FAQ
Moderator: Relationships Forum / Hawaii Forum / Dogs / Pets / Current Events
I cant even answer these posts anymore. There is a total disconnect.
From my perspective, it is like I am looking out my front window, watching bombs going off everywhere, soldiers shooting each other in the street, and someone trying to tell me it is just a few kids horsing around.
Just in my hospital alone, we have 69 people on ventilators, and another 40 who look like they are on deck. Deaths rates in the double digits every day. And a daily scramble to find more ventilators and more space to put these patients. I cant even find words that adequately describe how far from normal this is.
And it’s hard to believe that it could be worse, but in reality, it would be 10 times worse here if people have been going around with their daily lives as usual, like we do in flu season.
If it doesn’t get this bad in most of the country, it is only because of the distancing measures we have in place.
If the death toll is not in the millions, it is only because of the distancing measures we have in place.
For the people that doubt it, I only wish I could take them to my hospital for 1 day. And then transport them back in time to the worst flu season in the last 25 years, where they wouldn’t even notice it was flu season in the hospital.
Also, it needs to be said that when they are talking about the global mortality rate thus far, they are including the mortality rate that China is reporting. Even with their draconian measures, if China was truly surprised by this virus, the death rate would be magnitudes higher than is reported, even before they figured out what the hell they were dealing with.
I appreciate the work you are doing and the risk you are under. I totally accept that what you are experiencing is real and that the virus is real. However, its not an issue of mutual exclusivity. Both sides can be right.
I, for one, believe we did the right thing by shutting down society as much as possible to prevent the spread. One the other hand, I also believe that it is plausible that the virus, in and of itself, is not that much worse than the flu. We don't have enough data yet and no entity that could get such data seems to be in a hurry to get it.
As I pointed out in my other thread, there is a phenomenon known as the nocebo effect. Its real. It's the opposite of the placebo effect. It's long been established that the mind can influence the health of the body through the minds intense beliefs. People with severe knee pain have been "cured" of their pain by "fake surgery". Just the thought they they were getting the real surgery led them to believe that they were actually being treated and fixed. There are numerous other examples of how the placebo has made people feel better and physically get better...when there was no other explanation.
The nocebo effect works the same but in the opposite. People can make themselves sick by believing they actually have something that is deadly. They can make themselves sicker....with all the symptoms of the disease. There are people who panic in fear of their condition....making their condition worse. People don't usually panic over the flu because its not new and most people don't think it will kill them, because they have had it before. Hence, it's possible that fear and panic from an unknown virus that people believe as deadly can make them panic and make their situation worse. I am just saying that this is plausible. I am not saying that this is what is going on. Now, the media and government is saying prepare for a calamity from the virus....and that can create a self fulfilling prophecy. However, damned if you do damned if you don't. If you don't tell the public that you are not being honest. If you suggest that to the public...it can become self fulfilling.
You are a doctor and I think there are other doctors on this forum. I would never pretend that I know more about medicine than any of you. Thus, correct me where I am wrong. Is it not possible that the nocebo effect could be elevating the severity of the illness in many people? It's possible also that the virus has been in the United States since late last fall. When people were infected....they did not panic because they just assumed it was the cold or flu. They did not think it was some deadly NEW virus sweeping the globe. hence, no mass run on hospitals or the like.
I am certainly not in a politically motivated camp on this. I honestly could not care less who the President is come next year. I personally think that absent not having the data.....we should risk a recession rather than risking hundreds of thousands of lives. The question of whether it is overblown or not, absent data, is irrelevant. It might be overblown but until that is KNOWN for sure, you we have had to act to protect lives first.
I still am not understanding how some people are thinking this is some media driven event. All I see is the media broadcasting what the government and health experts are saying.
Can someone point out in that article where the media is falsely putting out stuff to create hysteria? All I see is the media doing its job, which is reporting what has happened and what the government and experts are saying.
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