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Man, I have a friend who's a nurse. Haven't spoken with her in a couple of years. Makes me think about how she's doing in all this...
Just to add to it, someone else commented before and I felt it was important to share it:
She is not claiming that the numbers of confirmed cases announced by the media are false. She's means that the number of tests conducted is so low that the number of confirmed cases isn't anything close to the real number of infected people.
Yeah, I think that's obvious at this point. Just using the reported number of 800K right now - you'd have to run several million more tests DAILY to (accurately) double that number - which is just increasingly impossible.
So the days of an accurate real-time count are behind us. It's not useless info - when it stops growing, that will be good to know.
he is not claiming that the numbers of confirmed cases announced by the media are false. She's means that the number of tests conducted is so low that the number of confirmed cases isn't anything close to the real number of infected people.
I've been screaming this from the rooftop for months. Nobody cares. They go by the "official" numbers.
The way this spreads, by the time you identify your first local case, your community is likely to be widely infected. It's why I sent everyone to work from home a week before "stay at home orders" started popping up (they were confused then; they aren't now), and why I'm already in my 3rd week of isolation, despite the county only suggesting it about a week and a half ago.
The confirmed numbers in the U.S. are so high by comparison because the U.S. has done more actual testing than any other nation.
The USA is far behind in testing though.
When tests are readily available at some later point in time, I sincerely doubt that they will all come up negative, so we should reasonably expect an increase.
I will say that while we appear to be the world's hot spot now, I am sure there are other countries who have it worse, or will have it worse in the near future.
Man, I have a friend who's a nurse. Haven't spoken with her in a couple of years. Makes me think about how she's doing in all this...
Just to add to it, someone else commented before and I felt it was important to share it:
She is not claiming that the numbers of confirmed cases announced by the media are false. She's means that the number of tests conducted is so low that the number of confirmed cases isn't anything close to the real number of infected people.
Until we can take a test and learn the results in short order and test large portions of the population, it's just a guess how many are infected....surely it's likely multiple times the identified number.
I've been screaming this from the rooftop for months. Nobody cares. They go by the "official" numbers.
The way this spreads, by the time you identify your first local case, your community is likely to be widely infected. It's why I sent everyone to work from home a week before "stay at home orders" started popping up (they were confused then; they aren't now), and why I'm already in my 3rd week of isolation, despite the county only suggesting it about a week and a half ago.
The actual word of mouth reports from people doesn't suggest we had a huge blowup of the illness before the reported numbers started ramping up though. It would have been seen especially among the older population. At best the actual cases might be double or triple, but that still leaves a long ways to go. Say 2.5 million people or even 5 million are infected, and they expect a worldwide infection rate of 2 billion let's say... this will be going on for around 3 months yet. Keep pumping those stocks more into bubble territory though!
When every American can either be tested or get the antibody test, then we're still in the dark, just like every other nation on earth.
Exactly. For all we know the actual number of people who've had this disease in the US alone may be a multiple of 10 more than the worldwide confirmed cases. It wouldn't surprise me if over 1 million people in NYC have had it over the last few months. The number of pneumonia cases you are seeing is not a result of how deadly this disease is, but just how contagious it is. Let's say a normal yearly covid outbreak had an RO of 1.5 or something and was just as deadly as this. You'd see a mild bump in the people needing hospitalization. Because this is so contagious, it's just sheer volume leading to the number of people needing care.
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