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Originally Posted by rstevens62
I trust the nations top virus expert, Dr Fauci, he says infected cases will skyrocket within the next few months.
Although if you think about it, Im not sure they can give an accurate number, because ultimately there are only so many tests and only certain people are being tested, so its impossible to come up with numbers unless every person in the country was checked twice a month for 3 months, (that is obviously not practical or possible though).
It's more complex than that. States that have not done a shutdown will have more cases sooner, and their death rate will increase. I have a friend on a ventilator for another 10 days, for a total of 17 days on power breathing assist. His prognosis is improving. Without the ventilator, he would be a week dead. As hospitals run out of ICUs and ventilators, the line will move toward the fatal side.
States in lockdown will have fewer cases later. Rather, their cases will be spread out over months, and treatment will generally be available. Physical isolation is not to keep people from getting it, it is to keep everyone from getting it at once. High tech treatment is how we pulled the fatality rate from 4.7% to less than 1%. Max out the hospitals and the fatality rate will start to climb again.
I am very impressed with the Bay Area in California. They locked down before anybody, and are doing very well at controlling contagion even though they were the first area to identify community transmission. They suffered horribly in the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and obviously remember that lesson. Plus, they have a bunch of really bright people who understand what "exponential" means. That epidemic is still with us, and so far has killed 25 million to 30 million people worldwide.
CV-19 promises to be much worse. The death rate is far from the 100% fatality of the early years of AIDS, but you don't have to engage in risky behavior to catch it.
Last edited by Larry Caldwell; 03-31-2020 at 10:05 PM..
Interesting fact I saw tonight.
Congress remained in session throughout the Spanish Flu and several died.
They want to stay out of session now - are their lives more important or jobs less important now than they were then?
Trump had to keep talking about his drug cocktail. It's time for him to shut up.
Now spinning the question on what would have the curve been if we started taking the threat seriously in late January and February.
Hartley his.
China threw everything and the kitchen sink at the Corona. The medication reduced sumptoms and hospitalization times in some patients some of the time.
But Spanish Flu still killed more people in absolute numbers, just a lower percentage due to greater population. And the Black Death actually affected a huge chunk of Eurasia. Both the Ilkhanate, and Golden Horde were hit hard too.
When we are looking at the numbers, we need to look at percentages, instead of just totals.
No one is giving the good news.
The bottom line is we can only protect ourselves. We cannot protect others, including our own families. We need to wash hands, we need to keep our hands away from our face. We need to remind our families to do the same.
After learning that this is the way it’s transmitted, I know I’m being far more vigilant about keeping my hands away from my face. Also reminding my family (like a broken record) to wash their hands.
But that is not a huge jump from number of deaths per day prior to Covid-19. That cannot be cause for such alarm that we lock down the whole country.
The number of Americans that died today from COVID-19 is about the same TOTAL amount that died prior to a week ago. That seems like quite a bit of growth to me, and that is with a lockdown going on. The situation doesn't seem very "retarded" to me.
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