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Hello. Can you explain why the virus is doing worse in liberal states like NY and NJ and liberal stronghold Detroit, MI?
At least 70% of people won’t become infected like what might happen on Germany under liberal icon Merkel
The hot spots are in cities. The northeastern cities in particular are very crowded. The original narrow streets and high density housing are still in place.
The number I am looking for - hard to find - is total cases in the USA expected confirmed by August. That number would be needed to measure against the 60K to 80K expected dead in the US by that time.
We do have to adjust for the dead at home. Just NY alone suspects an increase in deaths at home of almost 200 per day right now...they admit likely most are CV. Not much other reason for an immediate increased of that side (it's from about 50 normally to 250 now)...
The "other" deaths (suicides, heart attacks, strokes) right now actually appear to be down....hospitals are not sure why yet. Obviously MV deaths would go down. A couple theories out there. I would not be surprised if, when people are in a fearful and survival mode, their bodies hardened to deal with it. That is, we'd release the chemicals to protect us (fight, not flight)...and be less likely to be worried about all the normal things that might cause heart attacks, etc. - let alone that many may actually be eating better (less fast food)...as well as drinking or taking meds to lower stress.
This will be studied for many years and may yield some surprising answers. I would not be surprised if the stress of the rat race, in come cases, is worse than the stress of worrying about ONE major thing that everyone else is worried about also.
I honestly hope you did not think I was talking only about the United States. Did you read and comprehend the link I provided....
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
The number I am looking for - hard to find - is total cases in the USA expected confirmed by August. That number would be needed to measure against the 60K to 80K expected dead in the US by that time.
We do have to adjust for the dead at home. Just NY alone suspects an increase in deaths at home of almost 200 per day right now...they admit likely most are CV. Not much other reason for an immediate increased of that side (it's from about 50 normally to 250 now)...
The "other" deaths (suicides, heart attacks, strokes) right now actually appear to be down....hospitals are not sure why yet. Obviously MV deaths would go down. A couple theories out there. I would not be surprised if, when people are in a fearful and survival mode, their bodies hardened to deal with it. That is, we'd release the chemicals to protect us (fight, not flight)...and be less likely to be worried about all the normal things that might cause heart attacks, etc. - let alone that many may actually be eating better (less fast food)...as well as drinking or taking meds to lower stress.
This will be studied for many years and may yield some surprising answers. I would not be surprised if the stress of the rat race, in come cases, is worse than the stress of worrying about ONE major thing that everyone else is worried about also.
Never mind, the bold clearly say's you did not. Why am I not surprised.
Hello. Can you explain why the virus is doing worse in liberal states like NY and NJ and liberal stronghold Detroit, MI?
Loaded question - poverty is ALWAYS deadly. Who died in Katrina?
Georgia is getting hit quite hard. CA, like SF, is NOT. Well, if it was measured by "liberal" San Fran would be doing horribly.
Each of these situations differ.
NYC is one of a kind. The closeness of people and international travel and some of the initial spread through close-knit religious communities.
NO and Detroit are getting hit due to Poverty...and the well know factors that go along with it.
Initially, travel was really the single issue. Then the "social" scene went into play. The Bay Area is super crowded but it's not like NYC which is virtually stacked up on top of one another.
There is no doubt that "room to move" helps in the case of this Pandemic. On the other hand, Alabama and Georgia are looking like they will suffer due to not having done distancing and shut down early enough.
Some predict that many more "flyover" areas will peak a couple weeks after. But I think it won't be as bad because they saw on TV and in the papers what happened elsewhere - so even tho they are late to the game, the virus is late to them also.
I'm seeing, so far, that the virus isn't as easy to catch as we might think...in most cases without being packed together on a ship or an airliner or a funeral or religious services. Assisted living and jails are bad also.
But for those of us who have the luxury of being fairly in control of our environment, there are benefits.
Some are suggesting that Europe (Italy) may be really bad due to adults living with their parents...extended families. That means the active younger people infect the older and there is nothing that can be done. Our social isolation (relative) in the USA actually helps a little.
I'm not going to say I'm hopeful here because it's already much worse than what I would have imagined. But at least we'll have data, information and hospital capacity as the result of FINALLY following basic public health measures.
Trump did virtually nothing to help the situation. He told the States to figure it out themselves, so they did their best and coordinated as best they could without National leadership.
Yep. He sat on his little hands for several months and didn't at up a plan when he had initial Intel in December 2016
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacqueg
Trump's not doing a thing.
What's doing it? Ordinary Americans upending their lives in order to stop the spread of this thing. And it is working.
Trump is likely hurting it by not getting PPEs to healthcare workers fast enough and tests out there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mares
And if Trump called a national emergency, called in the military and police to force people in their homes, force businesses to shut down, force people to manufacture ventilators and masks, what would you be saying about him.
I don't think we would be able to really full shutdown. If anything it would be similar stay at home orders to most states. As for what he should have done, Trump should have put in the Defense Production Act sooner. And not just ventilators. Also I don't know why he didn't check the national strategic stockpile until it was too late...
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToyVW55
The reaction to these numbers is predictable. If we do the right thing, by extreme social distancing, the numbers will be lower and everyone will complain that we overreacted, when in fact, we did the right thing.
To the OP, are you somehow trying to pin this good news on Trump? You can thank the individual states who led on their own when just 4 weeks ago the federal government couldn't get their message straight for the lowering of numbers.
If we do things right it is seen as weird and doing too much. If we don't we look like idiots with a higher death rate. I rather look like we over planned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
Quote:
Coronavirus death toll revised down again from 81,000 to 60,000
Trump's numbers have ranged from 15 to 3 000 000, and every day brings forth a completely different estimate, so who can take this seriously?
Apparently models in.the last week or so have US numbers now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeutralParty
Wow. Just....wow.
I would imagine most Trump voters will either scroll right past this, or call it fake news.
I knew when this started it was way overblown. Time to open up the schools and business and get on with life.
We're still not out of the woods. The curve is flattened but we need to keep it flat. We can only return to normalcy once the curve trends downwards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diesel350z
I'm sure Trump supporters will make some kind of excuse. Fact is we are closing in on 2,000 deaths a day when Trump said he had it under control 2 month ago. What happened Mr. Trump? I thought you SAID you had it under control?
He didn't have a handle on it. The virus is handling Trump.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
2 months ago?
Feb 8?
It was under control. CDC announced on Feb 18 that "risk to Americans is low". There were less than 12 cases in US.
Yeah. It was under control. And now 10's of thousands of lives are being saved because Trump acted when he did.
I admire his courage in shutting down a healthy economy during an election year. People will recognize that courage in November.
Now, thanks, to decisive administrative action, all the models are proving to be wrong. This pandemic will not be nearly as bad as it could have been.
They might, it depends how bad the economy is in October/November.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
.. And he was right.
One person had died. It wasn't until a month later that local transmission was observed in the US. Before that it was not known that person-to-person transmission could happen.
The Left does this all the time.
They go back in history and try to find something wrong with what was said and ignore the time period.
No doubt about it. Trump was right. And we were right not to worry, too.
i thought that the first death was about thevtime the first reported community spread cases happened...
You are not seeing the numbers because they are staying home and not passing the virus to each other. Duh!
Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
It sounds like once this thing ravaged, "conservatives" thought California or Seattle and Portland would be completely infected.
They didn't count on people using actual science, logic and reason to do the right thing.
It took awhile, but now all but the most "conservative" of Govs. have come along with the liberal suggestions...liberal meaning science based in this case (only 6% of scientists ID as Republicans).
So if the liberal measures tone this think down the "conservatives' will tell us it was all overblown. Funny stuff...never fails. Just like the conservatives caused the wars, deficits, great recession, etc. and then yap about how bad liberals were for the ways they tried to fix Humpty Dumpty.
I'm still missing the Tea Party. Where did it go? Surely those millions will be sending back their checks and never taking any help from the Big Gubment?
SThe wet market theory is in serious doubt now. One third of the first people in China never visited the market. The first case discovered was one of them. The idea gaining popularity is that it came from bats and probably from a Chinese farmer who was infected while gathering bad guano in caves (used as fertilizer). The specific virus is an intestinal virus in bats. The farmer may have visited the market or infected others who moved around Wuhan. We will never know for sure.
Nope. Who knew it would be so hard to figure out a virus?
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri
Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
It sounds like once this thing ravaged, "conservatives" thought California or Seattle and Portland would be completely infected.
They didn't count on people using actual science, logic and reason to do the right thing.
It took awhile, but now all but the most "conservative" of Govs. have come along with the liberal suggestions...liberal meaning science based in this case (only 6% of scientists ID as Republicans).
So if the liberal measures tone this think down the "conservatives' will tell us it was all overblown. Funny stuff...never fails. Just like the conservatives caused the wars, deficits, great recession, etc. and then yap about how bad liberals were for the ways they tried to fix Humpty Dumpty.
I'm still missing the Tea Party. Where did it go? Surely those millions will be sending back their checks and never taking any help from the Big Gubment?
Trump now claims he will have done a “very good job” if the toll is held below 200,000 dead.
Yesterday 5 died from Covid 19 in the Philippines.
My own siblings repeat the mantra that facts don't matter and facts are wrong.
How long can they keep believing this mantra and deny facts and science when the numbers of dead are so high?
Note: This group also does State projections and NY is expected to over 13k in August. NY is already at over 6k so they anticipate a dramatic drop in daily rate soon. Hopefully they are correct.
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