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Back in late February I made on this forum this prediction:
Well the Dow fell below 20,000, to about 18,500 several weeks later.
Now, we're at a corner. The market can breakout or it can collapse. Not a hard prediction anymore, the market is going to collapse again under bad economic data, and I see a 15,000 Dow in our future by summer or fall.
I see a massive run on real estate prices. I see a recession that may even be a depression.
Thoughts?
Corporations are pumping serious money into company stock buy backs using the $4 trillion the Fed gave them, so it might keep the market afloat. As for the rest of the economy, it is going down big time due to the government fear mongering + shutting everything down. Trump owns this even if he argues the shut-down was the right thing to do.
A lot of tech stocks with heavy cloud components are probably near bottoms, like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. They're safe investments.
Anyone who tells you the cruise industry, aviation industry, hotel industry, or Boeing is near bottoms is just guessing. They maybe right, but just as easily maybe wrong.
Corporations are pumping serious money into company stock buy backs using the $4 trillion the Fed gave them, so it might keep the market afloat. As for the rest of the economy, it is going down big time due to the government shutting it down. Trump owns this even if he argues the shut-down was the right thing to do.
A lot of corporations have agreed not to do buybacks anymore. Mostly because they know it will probably hurt them. When its a bull market, its a way to drive fake rallies and increase shareholder value. Now, they may just generate a dead cat bounce, and be soon stuck holding stock worth less than what they paid for.
I know you have a hard on for everything Trump, but no he doesn't fully own "this" so take this to another thread with your Trump obsession.
I’m 90% cash but expect to get back in about the middle of May baby Christmas we will be at 25k Dow
I agree with this.
I moved all what I call my "big" accounts to cash. They are primarily 457b and 401k accounts that I just transferred to cash around 3/16. I cannot make any changes for 45 days so I'm hoping that by May or June that the markets stabilize and I'll get back into the funds I was in.
I moved all what I call my "big" accounts to cash. They are primarily 457b and 401k accounts that I just transferred to cash around 3/16. I cannot make any changes for 45 days so I'm hoping that by May or June that the markets stabilize and I'll get back into the funds I was in.
That was probably not a very good time to do that, unless you are counting on the market falling more.
I expect a general decline trend over the next few weeks but not as dramatic as the 1000 point losses we saw at the start. Once Trump and Fauci defeat the virus we will be headed up again.
A lot of tech stocks with heavy cloud components are probably near bottoms, like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. They're safe investments.
Anyone who tells you the cruise industry, aviation industry, hotel industry, or Boeing is near bottoms is just guessing. They maybe right, but just as easily maybe wrong.
Oil is an interesting gamble, I may bet on.
I also agree with the bold. I have been looking to buy some individual stocks of 2 of the three above because of the price drops and will likely do so today.
I also have been looking into oil. But we'll see. I try to stay with more "safe" investments and I don't see oil as safe like Amazon lol.
Will note I've not sold a lot of my individually owned stocks in my brokerage account and primarily have bought more shares of what I already have. Only ones I am kind of worried about are the cannabis industry stocks since the main one I own is associated with the real estate market. They are still worth more than what I paid for them last year around this time but I was kind of POd as I was planning on selling them after a year and now I figure I'll hold onto them a bit longer
Back in late February I made on this forum this prediction:
Well the Dow fell below 20,000, to about 18,500 several weeks later.
Now, we're at a corner. The market can breakout or it can collapse. Not a hard prediction anymore, the market is going to collapse again under bad economic data, and I see a 15,000 Dow in our future by summer or fall.
I see a massive run on real estate prices. I see a recession that may even be a depression.
Thoughts?
It all depends on a number of things:
-how we respond to COVID in the US and globally
-If those in charge are viewed as stable or unpredictable
*Oil prices (this is probably a bigger influencer of the markets than COVID)
I predict a lot of volotility over the next 18-24 months, bottom at $1200-$1500 for DJIA, and a recovery starting in 18-24 months. If a Dem is in office, the recovery will be very slow, but long-lasting (like Obama), if Trump gets the nod, it will be less predictable and more volatile. (NOTE: That is not necessarily good or bad, just different. With more volatility and less predictability also comes more potential for ups and downs.)
My prediction is also that in five years from now, the DJIA will have crested $30k, and likely a lot more.
I expect a general decline trend over the next few weeks but not as dramatic as the 1000 point losses we saw at the start. Once Trump and Fauci defeat the virus we will be headed up again.
The virus will disappear on its own. The government just needs to release their strangle hold of the economy, and all the economic misery will also disappear on its own.
This will continue to go down until the worst is over, we are at the beginning and a recession was predicted before the virus hit. Many of these businesses are going to close and they wont be back tomorrow, we are going anywhere but down for next several months. Recovery will take several years, much worse than 2008.
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