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Old 04-15-2020, 09:09 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, Arizona
2,940 posts, read 1,803,702 times
Reputation: 1940

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MacInTx View Post
Ignorance is bliss.


The "corporations" are not affected by the current "stay at home" shutdowns. The "corporations" are all staying in business, with their employees working from home.


The businesses that are being KILLED by the "stay at home" shutdowns are the sole proprietor businesses...the hardware store that's been in the family since 1947, the restaurant that was bought by the former busboy in 2001, the barber who has been running a one chair shop since 1975.


Big business will recover. These individually-owned businesses may not.


Hold on to your "you can shutdown as long as you like" thought. The Great Depression lasted for ten years despite all of the "keep giving money to people" efforts of FDR.
If I wanted to turn this into an macroeconomics forum I could but I won't.
I wasn't being specific. I wasn't speaking technically as say to just kill all businesses and force people to stay home. In reality, if we keep all small businesses afloat as well as individuals we will be fine. Through the PPP + stimulus checks. We play it safer to reduce the spread rather than trying to get everyone to go think it's normal.

I mean if you don't think the keep giving money to people works, you just haven't understood macroeconomic theory. That's how it was built when it first was devised/developed. There is no political agenda behind that theory. Where you spend said money is different. But the concept stands - spending money during a downturn prevents the downturn from getting worse. Now if you want to get into specifics of what went on during the FDR administration sure, that's a different thread.

I'm not going to debate with you whether deficit spending helps the economy. Same as if I won't debate how arithmetic works. That theory has been proven since the 30's - which is why deficit spending (fiscal policy) has always been the tool of governments around the world since then. The debate is where you spend that money not if you spend it.

 
Old 04-15-2020, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Native of Any Beach/FL
35,492 posts, read 20,860,187 times
Reputation: 14173
Quote:
Originally Posted by TB12inTB2020 View Post
I have, in effect, volunteered first. I have it. Actually, I am just about through it now. It was awful. I am now signing up to volunteer my plasma.
Well, I am very, very happy to know you survived it with out lasting effects on your body and glad can help others with the plasma - kudos ! However my dear - I probably would not fair well as you, and my family still needs me - and I’m speaking for millions. We all may not be as strong as you, but not ready to give up the ghost either - if can avoid it. One reason I wait on the red light to turn green- no guarantees - but improve my chances to continue my trip.
 
Old 04-15-2020, 09:12 PM
 
Location: Raymond James Stadium, FL
413 posts, read 208,022 times
Reputation: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by man4857 View Post
If I wanted to turn this into an macroeconomics forum I could but I won't.
I wasn't being specific. I wasn't speaking technically as say to just kill all businesses and force people to stay home.

I mean if you don't think the keep giving money to people works, you just haven't understood macroeconomic theory. That's how it was built when it first was devised/developed. There is no political agenda behind that theory. Where you spend said money is different. But the concept stands - spending money during a downturn prevents the downturn from getting worse.

I'm not going to debate with you whether deficit spending helps the economy. Same as if I won't debate how arithmetic works. That theory has been proven since the 30's - which is why deficit spending (fiscal policy) has always been the tool of governments around the world since then. The debate is where you spend that money not if you spend it.
I am not against short term money. Don't get me wrong with that. We need to do what we need to do to try to keep everything as intact as we can. This is a limited timeframe issue and we just need to get to the other side with as little damage as possible. It was nice discussing this with you. Time for bed. Have a wonderful night and stay safe.
 
Old 04-15-2020, 09:14 PM
 
Location: Raymond James Stadium, FL
413 posts, read 208,022 times
Reputation: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by tinytrump View Post
Well, I am very, very happy to know you survived it with out lasting effects on your body and glad can help others with the plasma - kudos ! However my dear - I probably would not fair well as you, and my family still needs me - and I’m speaking for millions. We all may not be as strong as you, but not ready to give up the ghost either - if can avoid it. One reason I wait on the red light to turn green- no guarantees - but improve my chances to continue my trip.
Thank you very much. I cannot say no lasting effects at this point. As a matter of fact, I am pretty sure I have some long term damage, but I am alive and now I can be useful to help others, so I feel blessed (as much as an anti-religious person feels "blessed"...LOL).
 
Old 04-15-2020, 09:17 PM
 
Location: Gilbert, Arizona
2,940 posts, read 1,803,702 times
Reputation: 1940
Quote:
Originally Posted by TB12inTB2020 View Post
Sure. My pleasure. It is this part "My argument is as long as you keep giving money to people (Through a UBI or just constant checks until this crisis is over) - NOT corporations to maintain their homes, keep food on the table, and pay bills, you can shutdown as long as you'd like. If companies fail that's fine because all that will happen is kill off the Wall Street folks - particularly bad management at corporations who didn't think to save their profits for a rainy day instead of spending it on stock buybacks and C-suite bonuses. Letting them collapse is a way to teach them a hard lesson and get rid of terrible management. I'm all for this."

I make my living as a financial advisor and many people underestimate just how bad the ripple effect would be to their personal finances (regular folks like you and me who have retirement accounts and/or pensions which are invested) if people stopped "working" and companies started falling. Not only is there the basic infrastructure of the businesses which are very difficult to ressurect, there is the businesses that depend on the businesses who depends on that business and so on. Small and medium companies are much more intertwined and dependent on larger companies than most realize. Once those dominoes start to fall, we go from a really bad situation to a devastating situation that would rip the foundation out from under people and their life savings. Most people live basically paycheck to paycheck. They have only two things of value. Their house and their retirement account. If we allow the destruction of their retirement account, the rest of their lives will be destroyed. They will almost certainly lose their house once they lose their savings. It's not something we every want to entertain happening. I know there is a ton of waste in the spending package and yes, companies who should not get the money will. However, in times like these, we always have to err on the side of doing too much for too many and never allow ourselves to come up short.
Valid argument and I don't disagree. A lot of the anger back in the 2008 bailout was directed at the Wall Street folks and well, this would be the perfect opportunity to kind of have a payback is what I was thinking. But you're probably right with how intertwined businesses are. I think some corporations you can allow to fail and it won't hurt too much - I think for example if you let cruise lines fail - it's a fairly isolated industry in terms of supply chain in comparison to say if you let Boeing fail - that will definitely have massive ripple effects on the supply chain and sub suppliers.

I will argue though that yes even though a lot of people own stocks in retirement funds and sorts, we know from statistics that the top 10% own a huge majority of the stock market - something like 70-80%. So if they get wiped out, it's in a sense to allow the opportunity for normal people to grab a piece of the pie - even though our own retirements gets wiped out with it.
 
Old 04-15-2020, 10:14 PM
 
Location: Del Rio, TN
39,809 posts, read 26,385,498 times
Reputation: 25704
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude View Post
It should remain a goal to slow it as much as possible until a vaccine is available, even if there is a partial reopening.
The whole argument for "flattening the curve" was to avoid overloading the hospitals and causing unnecessary deaths due to lack of treatment. But that argument assumed that the same number of people would die-just over a longer time. The area under the curve was constant. (rather that theory is accurate is another story). Practically-we want to infect people as quickly as we can-without overwhelming the health care system, build herd immunity, and get this over with. Not stretch it out for a year and a half until a vaccine is ready-and have far more die from the resulting economic collapse and poverty than the bug will ever get.

Last edited by Toyman at Jewel Lake; 04-15-2020 at 10:27 PM..
 
Old 04-15-2020, 10:15 PM
 
Location: Raymond James Stadium, FL
413 posts, read 208,022 times
Reputation: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toyman at Jewel Lake View Post
The whole argument for "flattening the curve" was to avoid overloading the hospitals and causing unnecessary deaths due to lack of treatment. But that argument assumed that the same number of people would die-just over a longer time. Practically-we want to infect people as quickly as we can-without overwhelming the health care system, build herd immunity, and get this over with. Not stretch it out for a year and a half until a vaccine is ready-and have far more die from the resulting economic collapse and poverty than the bug will ever get.
Yep
 
Old 04-15-2020, 10:19 PM
 
Location: Oklahoma
17,681 posts, read 13,540,200 times
Reputation: 17638
Quote:
Originally Posted by TB12inTB2020 View Post
You said the most important key word there. "FULL" reopening. No one, not even the Bad Orange Man, is saying we go from 0 to full opening.
The Bad Orange Man wanted to open things up with a "Big Bang" just a couple of weeks ago. His own words.
 
Old 04-15-2020, 10:22 PM
 
Location: Del Rio, TN
39,809 posts, read 26,385,498 times
Reputation: 25704
Quote:
Originally Posted by tinytrump View Post
Disantis can’t get the dam unemployment checks out after 3 weeks and yet he is ready to open up with now over 650 deaths and 21800 plus cases! FL is still a hot spot. The man is a fr3aking lunatic and needs to step down ! I wonder how many deaths are under his belt for letting the spring breakers hang out - 100% true piece of shyte.
So much drama. Florida isn't in the top 20 for infection rate. It makes sense to keep NY and NJ "locked down" a little longer-both due to the number of cases, but also due to the population density and potential for a rapid second peak. Most other states aren't even close to their numbers.
 
Old 04-15-2020, 10:23 PM
 
Location: Raymond James Stadium, FL
413 posts, read 208,022 times
Reputation: 495
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddie gein View Post
The Bad Orange Man wanted to open things up with a "Big Bang" just a couple of weeks ago. His own words.
He never said everything and all at once. That is just haters trying to make things fit their agenda, as usual.
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