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When we are allowed to operate again, things will turn around rather quickly due to the robust economy prior to this artificially created meltdown.
Let me know when the masses return to Disney or cruising or spectator professional sport stadiums or concerts or trade shows or.....
The second largest employment sector in Alaska is tourism. Most tourists arrive via cruise ship mid May- early September. Every passenger pays port taxes and fees, the highest in the world. This income is shared by the state and port municipalities.
Tourism contributes $86 billion to the Florida state economy and employs 10 million people. Let us know when attendance at Disney and the other 7 major amusement parks are going to return to pre- pandemic levels. Let us know when the dozens of cruise ships that depart from Miami and Port Everglades return to pre pandemic booking levels. Without demand, airlines will not restore schedules. Without tourism, hotels and condo rental bookings won’t happen. Without tourism......
Let us know when major shows return to major convention cities, Orlando, Chicago, Las Vegas and NYC.
Premature/ abrupt elimination of the Federal Social Distancing/ Gathering guidelines and thus state Shelter in Place May be counter- productive and will likely cause infection and hospitalization rates to increase. Here we go again.
I doubt that will happen during Trump's first-term. Even if cases drop in the summer, we'll still likely see a lot of restrictions to prevent a rebound of cases in the fall. And even if Trump got on TV and said "Okay, folks, all systems go," who is going to start planning a family vacation to Disney World or a couples retreat to Vegas?
Some states will recover much slower than others. Florida and Nevada are screwed. Georgia, which depends on transportation (i.e, Delta) and large conventions and sporting events, is not as screwed, but still screwed.
I don't think there will be a full bounce back for a while simply because people are not going to be eager to spend money for the rest of the year. Some smaller businesses won't exist by the time this is over. I suspect a lot of the Big Box stores will focus more on their online presence and shutter some of their brick and mortar locations.
People are going to be in need of a vacation, and if it's not Disney, the beaches will attract people, and when the come they will eat and drink in our restaurants.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
Trump is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Keep the economy shut down and job losses will continue to mount, which will most certainly lead to electoral doom. This is the best thing to do for the long-term well-being of the country, however. "Open the economy" and the cases will spike, which will lead us right back to square one with the economy still in shambles.
I don't think this is hurting him in November. The whole world did the same thing, and he was expected to follow suit, which he did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
We can write the script for this play already.
Act 1: The curve flattens and begins its downward slope in most states by early summer. Trump declares victory over COVID-19 and encourages everyone to go out and return to the normal lives we knew before CV-19. Fox News and Republican governors will play along and tell people it's safe to go out and tell everyone they have a patriotic duty to get the economy humming again. Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci and other experts say lifting most social restriction measures would be premature and could cause a very sudden spike of cases around October. Trump will put the muzzle on him.
Trump is Trump. He can't help it. He will fire Fauci and blame him and the media for the economic disaster, and then start taking credit for recovery.
Let me know when the masses return to Disney or cruising or spectator professional sport stadiums or concerts or trade shows or.....
The second largest employment sector in Alaska is tourism. Most tourists arrive via cruise ship mid May- early September. Every passenger pays port taxes and fees, the highest in the world. This income is shared by the state and port municipalities.
Tourism contributes $86 billion to the Florida state economy and employs 10 million people. Let us know when attendance at Disney and the other 7 major amusement parks are going to return to pre- pandemic levels. Let us know when the dozens of cruise ships that depart from Miami and Port Everglades return to pre pandemic booking levels. Without demand, airlines will not restore schedules. Without tourism, hotels and condo rental bookings won’t happen. Without tourism......
Let us know when major shows return to major convention cities, Orlando, Chicago, Las Vegas and NYC.
Premature/ abrupt elimination of the Federal Social Distancing/ Gathering guidelines and thus state Shelter in Place will likely cause infection and hospitalization rates to increase. Here we go again.
We can write the script for this play already.
Act 1: The curve flattens and begins its downward slope in most states by early summer. Trump declares victory over COVID-19 and encourages everyone to go out and return to the normal lives we knew before CV-19. Fox News and Republican governors will play along and tell people it's safe to go out and tell everyone they have a patriotic duty to get the economy humming again. Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci and other experts say lifting most social restriction measures would be premature and could cause a very sudden spike of cases around October. Trump will put the muzzle on him.
Act 2: Lo and behold, it turns out that the people who have spent careers studying this stuff were right, and the cases rebound in the fall. Whatever progress was made through social distancing in the Spring of 2020 has now been wiped out.
It is indirectly his fault on how he chose to handle the situation and this could have been minimized had things been handled better starting back in January.
instead of addressing it head on he chose to try to dismissing it hoping it like other things he has done before would just go away.
People are going to be in need of a vacation, and if it's not Disney, the beaches will attract people, and when the come they will eat and drink in our restaurants.
That's wishful thinking. And I'm someone who LOVES Florida's beaches and hotels. I can't really think of a better way to contract a highly contagious disease than to stay in a hotel with thousands of different people coming and going every day. A cough in a tight elevator will never be viewed the same.
What is the rate for last week? I've been looking and haven't found it. IIRC UE was up to around 9% when Obama was in office (at its worst). Though I agree-it WILL be worse-we have ordered a very large portion of the US economy to shut down and lay off workers-of course it will. I'm actually surprised it isn't over 20% now, given the number of businesses that have been forced to close-seems like far more than 1 in 5 people I know are on forced shutdown.
Which is why we need to have the government get out of the way as soon as possible and let the nation go back to work. Private businesses have a lot of work to do to undo the damage caused by government actions.
UE peaked in 2010 at 9.3%. It was 4.7% in 12/ 2016, a -4.6% reduction.
The rate was 3.5% in 12/2019, a - 1.2% difference over 3 years and viewed as full employment.
like I said, I never said it was Obama's economy otherwise my comment "I thought this is Obama's economy before the pandemic?" would not be in a question.
that question was for people who claimed that the economy is booming (before the pandemic) is credited to Obama and not Trump
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