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I am tired of reading posts that say the "cars are dangerous, too" argument or analogy does not apply to the COVID-19 crisis as it stands now -- and now that the number of virus cases is being more accurately predicted and IS being planned for.
So, excluding the possibility that hospitals in some states have or might have more COVID-19 patients than they can handle, what is the difference? ...
The rationale evidently is that cars or cancer are “known” quantities. We don’t expect an explosion of a new and devastating kind of cancer, which will waylay and kill potentially millions of people, without precedent. Nor do we expect a new automotive technology that say enhances efficiency but kills 20,000 people in the space of a couple of months, before the NHTSA discovers it and puts a stop to it.
The new virus is new, and hence unknown. The bounds on its potential damage are indeterminate. So, goes the reasoning, the response must be unbounded in its intensity and breadth.
The problem with this argument is multi-fold. First, we can only extrapolate from known cases to arrive at potential estimates of the virus’ damage. Short of running the experiment, there is no way of knowing if the virus is really as deadly as is purported. What if vastly more people were infected, than we thought? Second, there is no guarantee that the adopted remedies will be effective. And even if they “flatten the curve” successfully, what of a relapse or re-infection? Third, there is no reckoning of the costs of the remedy.
We’re told that if 3 million Americans die, then the economy would crash anyway. So might as well try to save their lives. We can have a dead economy with maybe 60,000 corpses, or a dead economy with 3,000,000 corpses. Surely the former is better? And it is. But we forget that (1) there’s no guarantee that 3,000,000 corpses would by themselves crash the economy. (2) how many corpses would there be from a crashed economy itself? (3) Maybe that 3 million estimate is grossly exaggerated. And (4) we may ultimately still have 3 million corpses – it’s just that we’ll have them later, and not all at once.
Quote:
Originally Posted by katharsis
...Why is it okay if approximately 40,000 mostly healthy people in the U.S. die every year in motor vehicle accidents, but it is okay to have millions of people unemployed because 60,000 (or even 100,000) mostly very old and/or unhealthy people in the U.S. might die from a virus?
The best rationale of which I can think, is that it’s believed that looking out for one’s elders, or for persons in any sort of compromised or vulnerable position, is a good in itself. It’s a behavior that we should encourage, even if the costs are high and the gains are small, because the virtuous principle matters more than the naked calculation of losses and gains. Such behavior is the quintessence of having a civilization, so that if we forego such behavior, we have debased our very civilization. For a statement of this philosophy, see for example https://theweek.com/articles/902582/...y-save-economy
The problem with this argument is that it’s a false trade. The young making sacrifices for the old, doesn’t guarantee that the old really will survive – or for how long. And the surviving-old will suffer too! It’s mostly the old people who own stocks. As the stock market plummets, it’s not the Millennials who are losing their life-accumulations. It’s the Silents and the older Boomers, who have 40+ years of earning-and-saving behind them, who are now too old to attempt to recoup their financial losses through going back to work and drawing a salary.
Neither is it just pitting young adults vs. old ones. Millions of schoolchildren have been bereft of their school-year. They are going to fall behind, possibly with a lifelong deficit in education. In a conventional war, we ask 19-year-olds to make sacrifices. In this war, we’re asking the 9-year-olds. How perverse is that?
Unfortunately, you don’t really have any better way of proving your narrative spin was the correct or more accurate representation of reality either compared to the people who would disagree with you. It’s just theory and assumption regarding how effective any countermeasures have actually been.
Quarantine is a fundamental of epidemiology. It does work, but it works better if everyone complies.
We will never know with precision how many would have been infected in the absence of the mitigation procedures now in place, but would have been some number larger than what it ultimately turns out to be.
If everyone had just taken a month long staycation the virus might have been stopped in its tracks.
I said from the start that our friends on the left needed at least 100K deaths in the US from this in order to use it, they might end up with half that....but they'll still try to use it anyway, it just won't be effective.
It's really unfortunate how things turned out for them.
After the whole failed Russiagate and then the failed Ukraine/Empeachment-gate in which Joe Biden was the actual villain that needed prosecuting, you’d think the left would be a little more embarrassed and pee shy about using the flu to achieve their political ends. You’d think that...
Quarantine is a fundamental of epidemiology. It does work, but it works better if everyone complies.
We will never know with precision how many would have been infected in the absence of the mitigation procedures now in place, but would have been some number larger than what it ultimately turns out to be.
If everyone had just taken a month long staycation the virus might have been stopped in its tracks.
Theoretically, and I mean only theoretically, that might be true, but are we supposed to crash the economy and fire everybody every winter now when flu season hits? That would be insane right? So why did they do it this time is what you have to ask yourself, and the timing itself on this ordeal is mighty suspect for more than one reason.
Theoretically, and I mean only theoretically, that might be true, but are we supposed to crash the economy and fire everybody every winter now when flu season hits? That would be insane right? So why did they do it this time is what you have to ask yourself, and the timing itself on this ordeal is mighty suspect for more than one reason.
It was done this time because the virus is new and its potential behavior was totally unknown. It could have turned out to be as deadly as MERS. Thank goodness it is not.
Okay, time to re-open country then. Everybody can come out from under their desks. I’m missing workouts over here and getting tired of the news talking about nothing but how deadly the flu is to 80 year olds and the infirm. (We already knew that)
Your premise seems to be a bit off, added with a pinch of some revisionist history. When I posted a couple of weeks ago that predictions from the "experts" would come in as being WRONG and the death total would be much lower along the lines of the flu numbers each year, people went absolutely nuts. It sounded to me these individuals were the ones wishing for much higher numbers. And now these same people can't admit they were grossly misled by the "expert" bureaucrats and the media.
You are wrong.
COVID-19 is the leading cause of the death in the US for the last few days.
Over heart disease, which was #1.
The flu is never the leading cause of death in the US. EVER!
COVID-19 being the leading cause of death currently is mostly due to a localized outbreak in a single metro (NYC) where it was passed around significantly before people started taking it seriously. NYC has lost more than 3x the number of people as they did on 9/11.
Does it have to tear through your local neighborhood before you understand the severity?
Okay, time to re-open country then. Everybody can come out from under their desks. I’m missing workouts over here and getting tired of the news talking about nothing but how deadly the flu is to 80 year olds and the infirm. (We already knew that)
You don't have to miss workouts.
Get creative.
Bodyweight, maybe some yoga, or even other types of mobility or circuit work.
Okay, time to re-open country then. Everybody can come out from under their desks. I’m missing workouts over here and getting tired of the news talking about nothing but how deadly the flu is to 80 year olds and the infirm. (We already knew that)
Theoretically, and I mean only theoretically, that might be true, but are we supposed to crash the economy and fire everybody every winter now when flu season hits? That would be insane right? So why did they do it this time is what you have to ask yourself, and the timing itself on this ordeal is mighty suspect for more than one reason.
I agree with your overall post but what's your view on the "suspect" timing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010
It was done this time because the virus is new and its potential behavior was totally unknown. It could have turned out to be as deadly as MERS. Thank goodness it is not.
Timing? Yes, Mother Nature is a ...
Does that mean every time a flu-like illness comes out you're advise shutting down the country?
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84
Your premise seems to be a bit off, added with a pinch of some revisionist history. When I posted a couple of weeks ago that predictions from the "experts" would come in as being WRONG and the death total would be much lower along the lines of the flu numbers each year, people went absolutely nuts. It sounded to me these individuals were the ones wishing for much higher numbers. And now these same people can't admit they were grossly misled by the "expert" bureaucrats and the media.
I wonder why the experts would want to hurt us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude
Does it have to tear through your local neighborhood before you understand the severity?
And just who is it killing or seriously sickening? Does it have anything to do with age? Pre-existing conditions? Smoking?
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