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I think many of you underestimate your regular old daily chance of dying. In a year, it's about 1%.
Yep. Of all the death around you - accidents, strokes, heart attacks, cancer, bullets, snake bites and boat accidents -all adds up to your odds of about 1 in a 100. Now add in the COVID -where your odds are ALSO 1 in a 100.
So if you catch COVID - seems to me you are twice as likely to die as you were before...no? 2 in a 100?
With that in mind - yep - it's priceless. It is - literally - worth ALL the other death combined. It's THAT bad. Don't believe it? Get out a calculator and find my mistake.
I think many of you underestimate your regular old daily chance of dying. In a year, it's about 1%.
Yep. Of all the death around you - accidents, strokes, heart attacks, cancer, bullets, snake bites and boat accidents -all adds up to your odds of about 1 in a 100. Now add in the COVID -where your odds are ALSO 1 in a 100.
So if you catch COVID - seems to me you are twice as likely to die as you were before...no? 2 in a 100?
With that in mind - yep - it's priceless. It is - literally - worth ALL the other death combined. It's THAT bad. Don't believe it? Get out a calculator and find my mistake.
The issue isn't the use of a calculator, the issue is knowing when and what to use the calculator on. The 1% chance of dying in general per year includes EVERYBODY who's died in the US including the elderly who die of complications from mother natures #1 killer (and it's been that way forever), time. Simple minded adding and multiplying will simply get you numbers that have no connection to reality (from a life or statistics perspective).
I'm not following. I said that. I said it includes all the people from all the causes - including elderly.
If your point is that some of the 1% will overlap - undoubtedly - but not all or even most of them.
Only about 50% of that 1% dies from heart disease and cancer - and a big chunk of those will survive corona.
It agree it's not completely additive - my scenario is a simplification - but the point is - a 1% risk is not really tiny..it's a significant adder to the risk you ALREADY tolerate.
So using your numbers, 1/100 die from it, out of those 992/1000 had at least one serious underlying condition, meaning 8/1000 would be considered "healthy" with no known underlying condition.
Therefore 8/100,000 or 1/12,500 so-called "healthy" people with no known underlying condition would die from the virus, on average.
Thank you....that’s what I was looking for. (And of course I understand that it’s an average.)
Now, the next thing I am wondering is how many healthy adults die in a car crash in any given year? About 50,000 or so? That’s about 1/6800. (That much math I can do.) So....it is more likely that a healthy adult will die in a crash this year that succumb to this virus. Yet, people are not afraid of driving.
So, with the understanding that vulnerable populations (like the elderly) still need to be protected, it seems we are close to at least opening lower-risk regions of the country, albeit still practicing social distancing. My guess is that this WILL happen by May 1.
I'm not following. I said that. I said it includes all the people from all the causes - including elderly.
If your point is that some of the 1% will overlap - undoubtedly - but not all or even most of them.
Only about 50% of that 1% dies from heart disease and cancer - and a big chunk of those will survive corona.
It agree it's not completely additive - my scenario is a simplification - but the point is - a 1% risk is not really tiny..it's a significant adder to the risk you ALREADY tolerate.
My point is that 1% number is not a RISK number, it's simply a statistic. If you truly want to measure RISK, you HAVE to factor things differently. That's like saying my risk of death by shark attack can be calculated by taking the number of shark attack deaths and dividing by a population. Fact is that my risk is very different than a daily surfer in Australia. I can guarantee that your insurance company doesn't calculate your risk score by coming up with a national average for all car accidents and dividing by the population.
Not to mention the assumption that 1% for the CV19 death rate is accurate (which it isn't, at least not what's commonly bandied about).
It seems at this juncture that approximately 1% of those who are infected succumb to the virus (RIP), and a study from Italy showed that 99.2% of those dying had at least one serious underlying condition. So, what is the percentage likelihood that a healthy adult would catch the disease and then succumb to it? Would it be 1% x .08%?
P.S. I was horrible with word problems in junior high and still would be. (I have other talents.)
You would be correct. Sort of.
Whatever the percentage of all deaths being underlying issues the balance would most probably be those who are healthy. That is the basic solution.
Where these numbers get washed out is when you account for age, gender, race, income.
All the numbers will be gone over and over and over in the coming years. All the percentages will be broken down. They will constantly be changing as nothing is static.
Quote:
Originally Posted by austinnerd
My point is that 1% number is not a RISK number, it's simply a statistic. If you truly want to measure RISK, you HAVE to factor things differently. That's like saying my risk of death by shark attack can be calculated by taking the number of shark attack deaths and dividing by a population. Fact is that my risk is very different than a daily surfer in Australia. I can guarantee that your insurance company doesn't calculate your risk score by coming up with a national average for all car accidents and dividing by the population.
Not to mention the assumption that 1% for the CV19 death rate is accurate (which it isn't, at least not what's commonly bandied about).
Just to throw a wrench into the statistics.
There's indications that hospitals are pumping the numbers because they get $13,300 for each covid patient. Let's say a person breaks their leg in an accident, tests positive (false or whatever), yet is a-symptomatic. They are listed as a covid patient. BOOM $13,3 TY very much.
OH right, on that 1% thing. Just as COVID is. And I agree 1% was a guess - but that wasn't my guess - it was upstream, and it's also a pretty common guess. Another thread going around here has some interesting German data (i mean, the author is german ,the data is worldwide) and it is indeed trending towards 1%...or at least, not more. Time will tell..
But regarding the 1% - yes - whatever percent die of shark bite can be removed if you never swim. Same with cars and, well, more generally, being old. That 1% chance goes down if you're young, and way down if you're a woman. Apparently, if you want to live forever, be a young woman. If you want to die soon, be an old man.
I'm not saying it's a literal thing - but neither is COVID. The 1% (IF that's it) trends heavily to old people - just like real life - so your real "odds" are probably changing from 0.1%....to 0.2%....so it's still twice as likely.
But - like you can avoid sharks, and lightning, and boating accidents (well, water, I guess), you can avoid COVID too - or you can push your luck, and be a statistic. Lots of things are easy to change. Like sharks. Lots are impossible. Like age or gender. Many - many - others are by choice. Like OD. Or COVID if you get it because you pushed your luck by bucking the system. In that regard, it's like getting IN the water With the shark on purpose. Odds go way up.
So, if China and most everywhere else experience 3% plus, then why would the US experience different? A miracle?
We are far enough along now to make some educated guesses for the first wave - that being about a 3 month period from mid-march to mid-june. We cannot predict further....with any accuracy.
It is likely a million tested and confirmed cases will exist. We are still at 1/2 that and MANY already infected will, of course, die. Yet we are already at 4% (if we include home deaths extra due to CV, etc.).
Yet somehow it will magically come down to 1% ???
Impossible. Also, if we use the time basis, we'd have to multiply it out by 4X for a yearly odds.....if all else were equal (it's not)......
If 1% of airline flights crashed each month no one would get on a plane. If 1% of airline flight crashed each year, no one would get on a flight.
Your normal odds of dying in a plane crash are something like 1 in 10 MILLION.
That would be akin to 0.00001%
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