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Highly anticipated antibody testing results out of Santa Clara County in California headed by a Stanford University professor were released on Friday, showing that the estimated number of positive novel coronavirus cases is likely 50-80 times higher than reported, thus significantly dropping the estimated fatality rate.
The study, the first large-scale community antibody testing in the nation and led by Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University, found that 2.5 to 4.2% of the 3330 subjects tested were found to have COVID-19 antibodies.
Quote:
“These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases,” the study’s abstract explained.
So, the death rate is far lower than what we've been lead to believe (by a factor of 50, meaning lower than the flu!). And while we aren't there-"herd immunity" is closer than we've been led to believe.
If there are that many people with it, this is the likely most contagious disease ever. It supposedly just started in one small market in Asia last November.
Regardless this has killed 10s of thousands of people and will continue and we dont know ANYTHING about the true damage long term this virus is causing. (Destroyed immune system leaving us susceptible to other illnesses, We already people are retesting positive for the virus after being cleared. Is another deadlier strain of this coming? ) But lets reopen everything. and quick . People need to go back to serving food and handing out movie tickets and going to bars and parties . Thats more important
As far as know, this thing could be AIDS without the sex, sharing needles etc. , in the long term. Tired of these talking head "experts" that think they know the future and can make rash decisions at a whim without being educated to the long term effects to their flawed decisions
So, the death rate is far lower than what we've been lead to believe (by a factor of 50, meaning lower than the flu!). And while we aren't there-"herd immunity" is closer than we've been led to believe.
The population of Santa Clara County is 1.9 million. 81,000 of 1.9 million is 4%. That means 96% of people don't have antibodies.
Why don't you check your numbers before you misrepresent a study next time.
If there are that many people with it, this is the likely most contagious disease ever. It supposedly just started in one small market in Asia last November.
Santa Clara County has almost 2 million people, 81k infected is nothing.
Well that's very good news then, assuming the antibody tests are close to accurate. However, 2.5 to 4.2% showing positive is hardly herd immunity. We'll need to get up to high double-digits for that to happen. Plus South Korean is finding multiple cases of re-infection, in many cases symptomatic. This thing doesn't go away easily. I wouldn't give up social distancing just yet.
Brownstein, also an ABC News contributor, “cautioned that the results for the California county are not necessarily representative of the U.S. population and noted the use of online ads to find participants could skew the candidate pool,” the network noted.
The fact that you had to respond to an online ad for testing likely means an overrepresentation of people that thought they had had it and therefore wanted to be tested.
So again, my opinion is an interesting data point but needs to be confirmed by other studies, possibly with more random sampling.
So, the death rate is far lower than what we've been lead to believe (by a factor of 50, meaning lower than the flu!). And while we aren't there-"herd immunity" is closer than we've been led to believe.
don't believe everything you read, it seem to me that the death rate is actually higher than we are being told here in NJ/NY anyway
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