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You must be getting your numbers from early March Dr. Falsie. We have actual data now out of Stanford and USC that proves the mortality rate is less than 0.05% and probably less than influenza.
Putting the rate of mortality aside, when was the last time 60,000 Americans died of respiratory failure in a single month?
It doesn't sound like you understand this then. The actual data gets changed based on behaviors and what's available. The models are best guesses, but when they are revised down, they also take into account things like social distancing and other changed habits. It's not something you "predict"--it's something that people actually did. You wanting to be right is good and all, but you also to be honest with yourself--you probably aren't an epidemiologist with any qualifications.
I don’t need to be. I’ve still been more accurate than Fauci and Birx though.
It doesn't sound like you understand this then. The actual data gets changed based on behaviors and what's available. The models are best guesses, but when they are revised down, they also take into account things like social distancing and other changed habits. It's not something you "predict"--it's something that people actually did. You wanting to be right is good and all, but you also to be honest with yourself--you probably aren't an epidemiologist with any qualifications.
So I take it you create statistical models for a living then, No?
Was the decision to grind the US economy to a halt based on an assumption of millions of deaths or thousands of deaths? Because the former was just dead wrong and that makes any policy based off that prediction just as wrong.
So I take it you create statistical models for a living then, No?
Was the decision to grind the US economy to a halt based on an assumption of millions of deaths or thousands of deaths? Because the former was just dead wrong and that makes any policy based off that prediction just as wrong.
Oh no way, that's a bunk job. I do a decent number of machine learning projects and had a year where I was doing a lot of GANs related stuff including having to source and clean up data due to an ongoing project, so I know some stuff, but I'm definitely not close to the models used for this epidemic. I'm definitely NOT an epidemiologist. That being said, I do get that it's a lot of work and expertise to make these and there's the element of it being a constant work in progress. I think early on it was explicitly based on millions to hundreds of thousands, wasn't it?
I guess it hits older people worse because probably a lot of their retirement money is in portfolios that have taken a dive whereas a lot more younger people work essential jobs, are less likely to die from such, and are also more likely to have white collar professional jobs that can easily move to a work from home paradigm.
Oh no way, that's a bunk job. I do a decent number of machine learning projects and had a year where I was doing a lot of GANs related stuff including having to source and clean up data due to an ongoing project, so I know some stuff, but I'm definitely not close to the models used for this epidemic. I'm definitely NOT an epidemiologist. That being said, I do get that it's a lot of work and expertise to make these and there's the element of it being a constant work in progress. I think early on it was explicitly based on millions to hundreds of thousands, wasn't it?
Based upon what you've said here, your work with AI should give you enough of an understanding of decision trees, adaptive responses, and Monte Carlo simulations to present an informed opinion of what a model can produce. You don't have to be an expert on a subject to have an informed opinion about it because you apply knowledge from your areas of expertise to form that opinion.
I will never trust any policy based on models again because of the poor assumptions used at the outset. Take this assumption that drives many state retirement funds: Markets will produce a 7.0% return per annum. That little gem has crushed many retirement funds because it was absolutely wrong. One wrong statistic can produce errors that are orders of magnitude from reality.
Based upon what you've said here, your work with AI should give you enough of an understanding of decision trees, adaptive responses, and Monte Carlo simulations to present an informed opinion of what a model can produce. You don't have to be an expert on a subject to have an informed opinion about it because you apply knowledge from your areas of expertise to form that opinion.
I will never trust any policy based on models again because of the poor assumptions used at the outset. Take this assumption that drives many state retirement funds: Markets will produce a 7.0% return per annum. That little gem has crushed many retirement funds because it was absolutely wrong. One wrong statistic can produce errors that are orders of magnitude from reality.
That's my rant about models.
^^^^^^This. I do Financial Pro Formas and Financial Modelling for work. It is ALL in the assumptions used, and of course the data. But, you can have great data, and do anything you want with it based on the assumptions. Escalation factors, interest rates, cost of money, reversion numbers etc.
^^^^^^This. I do Financial Pro Formas and Financial Modelling for work. It is ALL in the assumptions used, and of course the data. But, you can have great data, and do anything you want with it based on the assumptions. Escalation factors, interest rates, cost of money, reversion numbers etc.
Are you an FA? Because if you are, we need to talk.
Was the decision to grind the US economy to a halt based on an assumption of millions of deaths or thousands of deaths? Because the former was just dead wrong and that makes any policy based off that prediction just as wrong.
The former was a worst case scenario assuming no mitigative measures. The latter estimate could still come to fruition.
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