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We appear to be there right now. The goal of the "Flattening the curve" strategy and the "social distancing" tactics was never to stop the virus from infecting most people. It was to reduce the peak at the outset enough to get enough ventilators in and to allow the hospitals and the cities to prepare for whatever comes.
We cannot stop this. We cannot contain it. The "cat" is out of the bag and she is not going back in.
The next step is to build up herd immunity, which all of the antibody testing which has been done suggests we are actually quite a bit further along towards than what the supposed "experts" had thought or been predicting based on their obviously flawed prediction models.
Building up herd immunity means some 60%-70% of people will be getting this virus, and maybe more. The goal is not to avoid that from happening, as that is inevitable. We cannot run away from that destiny. We cannot hide from it. We can not deny it away or avoid it. It WILL happen.
The best we can do is to provide safeguards for the elderly, especially those with the specific co-morbidities that tend to correlate with people dying from this disease, which appear to be primarily obesity, diabetes and heart disease, as far as I can tell.
Everyone else needs to expect to get this virus, as statistically speaking, we very probably will.
Everyone else will have to be smart, take what precautions are appropriate for your particular situation, and beyond that, be courageous enough to accept that risk is a part of life and that we all face risks, literally every day. This is just one of them.
We've been over that, that's incorrect. The total end size of the epidemics is different depending on the counter-measures.
There's a good post on something like this on facebook. Can't find it now to post word for word but what it's saying is if the government thinks it's time to open things up, let's see all the buildings, monuments, etc. in Washington, D.C. open up. Start up the tours through the White House. Let's see the State Capitol buildings, court houses and city halls open up. If they want people to think it's safe to get out again, let's see them do all that.
I realize that most working folks need to work to provide for their families, but is chancing bringing home a killer worth it? Keep in mind you won't be able to pay bills, buy food, or hug your kids from your coffin.
Valid concerns, but when do you anticipate the risk will be gone? Another year? Another three years? Another five years? What is your recommendation?
Have you thought about how many smaller businesses would go under for good if they have to remain closed for another year? Or even just another six months? The other day the local news here in Los Angeles interviewed some restaurant owners who were desperate to reopen at least on some level. Reduced capacity, whatever it takes. Profit margins were slim anyway, they're worried about possibly not reopening. Ever.
And that's not the only industry. There are lots of small manufacturing companies who are facing the same dilemma. Plenty of them here in Los Angeles. Years ago I worked from some in the Aerospace industry before changing to a career in computers. Nobody wants to face permanent job loss as companies close their doors for good. Businesses need to survive.
Choosing to wait until all risk is gone is simply not realistic. It might be nice if we could do that, but that's not how it works in the real world. There will always be some risk. Fortunately Governor Newsom here in California is very concerned about the state's economy and is working toward lifting business and work restrictions soon.
Valid concerns, but when do you anticipate the risk will be gone? Another year? Another three years? Another five years? What is your recommendation?
Have you thought about how many smaller businesses would go under for good if they have to remain closed for another year? Or even just another six months? The other day the local news here in Los Angeles interviewed some restaurant owners who were desperate to reopen at least on some level. Reduced capacity, whatever it takes. Profit margins were slim anyway, they're worried about possibly not reopening. Ever.
And that's not the only industry. There are lots of small manufacturing companies who are facing the same dilemma. Plenty of them here in Los Angeles. Years ago I worked from some in the Aerospace industry before changing to a career in computers. Nobody wants to face permanent job loss as companies close their doors for good. Businesses need to survive.
Choosing to wait until all risk is gone is simply not realistic. It might be nice if we could do that, but that's not how it works in the real world. There will always be some risk. Fortunately Governor Newsom here in California is very concerned about the state's economy and is working toward lifting business and work restrictions soon.
Here in PA we have takeout and delivery but not dine-in service. I know that isn't enough for the long term but I hope it is helping. I support those businesses because I want them to survive.
They don't need to develop herd immunity because their lifestyle choices will prevent most people from being infected.
People who take precautions and and are usually younger and healthier died. We are going to open - if we are too soon- we will know by June. I pray we have put this virus in time out - so we can rebuild and regroup - I really do. I wished all would wear their masks and be more diligent with distancing etc.
People who take precautions and and are usually younger and healthier died. We are going to open - if we are too soon- we will know by June. I pray we have put this virus in time out - so we can rebuild and regroup - I really do. I wished all would wear their masks and be more diligent with distancing etc.
Our Governor has stated "decreasing cases" as a condition of re-opening in pushing our state back to May 8th. Not new cases. Total cases. Now, it's changed to "leveling off of cases".
14 days ago, we were 52 new cases. The next highest since that day was 36, 4 days later. Since the 36 we've been: 14,13,13,3,15,7,7,8.
This is in a population of 11MM.
I think it has to be that type of open-ended dates and moving the goalposts for reopening that drive most people bonkers. Kind of makes one think they are stretching it out as long as possible.
Especially for those of us who were skeptical about the entire thing anyway.
I was talking about this earlier with a coworker and he said something that really got me thinking...
We have a fairly large protesting group in my state right now, that is demanding the governor re open everything and allow people to go back to work...now, from what the CDC is saying currently, this is a VERY BAD idea!
Maybe all these people are only saying they want everything re opened, people going to back work, etc...when what they really want, is for the number of infected to explode and skyrocket as soon as everything re opens...then of course, everything will be forced to shut down again...and for MUCH longer?
It makes sense to me. NO sane person should be calling for places to re open at this point, (especially with what the CDC is saying currently!), doing this will be like jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
I was listening to our cashiers talk to customers in the store today, and many were making comments on our state deciding to re open places, (it was was split 50/50 between those for it and those against it), but one common thing I did hear, from majority of people....if places did re open soon, they, personally, would NOT be going or taking their families, (that was pretty interesting), I would have thought people that agreed with re opening, would be more likely to start going out again, taking their families out, I was WRONG.
The people pushing for this and protesting are like those with criminal minds - their brains are not normal and they need instant gratification.
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