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My goal is not to run away and hide from this virus. If I was a person who was in the high risk category, then I would likely be more concerned and taking a lot of the precautions that you seem to advocate for everyone, for an interminable period, without any plausible end in sight.
For all I know, I have already had it. Statistically speaking, I probably will get it - if I have not had it already - and so will you. There is testing going on in Texas, but I do not see any reason why I should want to get tested at this point.
Prove to us that you are mentally healthy, cowering in fear from a virus that is fended off with ease by the immunity systems of the VAST majority of people. Talk about unhealthy.
Well, we learned in the last couple days that Trump’s Valet has Covid. These positions are usually filled by Navy personnel, so no doubt he had been in very good health before this. You never know about this virus—it’s very tricky. Cocky can get you in trouble...
Well, we learned in the last couple days that Trump’s Valet has Covid. These positions are usually filled by Navy personnel, so no doubt he had been in very good health before this. You never know about this virus—it’s very tricky. Cocky can get you in trouble...
This virus is not tricky at all. It is doing what viruses always do, and our immune systems are responding to it in the way that they always do. This routine has been going on for as long as we have been on this planet. There is nothing new or novel happening here at all.
As far as your morbid eagerness to see harm come to President Trump, why am I not surprised? So much for the compassion and humanity of the "democratic" left. What a farce.
My goal is not to run away and hide from this virus. If I was a person who was in the high risk category, then I would likely be more concerned and taking a lot of the precautions that you seem to advocate for everyone, for an interminable period, without any plausible end in sight.
For all I know, I have already had it. Statistically speaking, I probably will get it - if I have not had it already - and so will you. There is testing going on in Texas, but I do not see any reason why I should want to get tested at this point.
Prove to us that you are mentally healthy, cowering in fear from a virus that is fended off with ease by the immunity systems of the VAST majority of people. Talk about unhealthy.
Yeah, if we do things in a stupid way, that would be the result.
Now, math on all of this has been known for a long time:
I suggest you concentrate on these two paragraphs:
"Herd immunity occurs for a disease if enough people have disease-acquired or
vaccination-acquired immunity, so that the introduction of one infective into the population does not cause an invasion of the disease. Intuitively, if the contact number
is σ, so that the typical infective has adequate contacts with σ people during the
infectious period, then the replacement number σs must be less than 1 so that the
disease does not spread. This means that s must be less than 1/σ, so the immune
fraction r must satisfy r > 1 − 1/σ = 1 − 1/R0. For example, if R0 = σ = 10, then
the immune fraction must satisfy r > 1−1/10 = 0.9, so that the replacement number
is less than 1 and the disease does not invade the population"
The distancing and counter-measures modify the contact number σ
If nothing is done, then σ for this virus is very high. And the only way the number of infected to start going down is to infect huge number of population (we are nowhere close at this point). So assuming that lasting immunity exists, you end up there, you also end up with humongous number of dead. The system is guaranteed to be overwhelmed as well, if you want do it quickly.
Now, if you manage to effectively lower σ by counter-measures and bring it under 1, then quoting:
"If R0 = σ ≤ 1,
then the replacement number σs is less than 1 when io > 0, so that the infectives decrease to zero"
And this is the reason the graphs for Germany and Texas, for example, look so very differently:
I suggest you concentrate on these two paragraphs:
"Herd immunity occurs for a disease if enough people have disease-acquired or
vaccination-acquired immunity, so that the introduction of one infective into the population does not cause an invasion of the disease. Intuitively, if the contact number
is σ, so that the typical infective has adequate contacts with σ people during the
infectious period, then the replacement number σs must be less than 1 so that the
disease does not spread. This means that s must be less than 1/σ, so the immune
fraction r must satisfy r > 1 − 1/σ = 1 − 1/R0. For example, if R0 = σ = 10, then
the immune fraction must satisfy r > 1−1/10 = 0.9, so that the replacement number
is less than 1 and the disease does not invade the population"
The distancing and counter-measures modify the contact number σ
If nothing is done, then σ for this virus is very high. And the only way the number of infected to start going down is to infect huge number of population (we are nowhere close at this point). So assuming that lasting immunity exists, you end up there, you also end up with humongous number of dead. The system is guaranteed to be overwhelmed as well, if you want do it quickly.
Now, if you manage to effectively lower σ by counter-measures and bring it under 1, then quoting:
"If R0 = σ ≤ 1,
then the replacement number σs is less than 1 when io > 0, so that the infectives decrease to zero"
And this is the reason the graphs for Germany and Texas, for example, look so very differently:
I have taken plenty of math classes. If I needed another one, it certainly would not be from you.
I guess if taking Algebra 1 three times counts as plenty of math classes.
Fortunately, Governor Abbot is taking a measured approach.
Got my haircut today. People waiting were kept six feet apart. Some people were turned away. Glad I was white. Masks were worn by employees and customers alike.
Well, we learned in the last couple days that Trump’s Valet has Covid. These positions are usually filled by Navy personnel, so no doubt he had been in very good health before this. You never know about this virus—it’s very tricky. Cocky can get you in trouble...
....and he'll probably be sick for less than a week, tragic really.
I have taken plenty of math classes. If I needed another one, it certainly would not be from you.
How about this math: at the end of April, Texas had 28k confirmed cases. It now has 38k confirmed cases. A 40% increase in 9 days.
There is a reason why new cases are declining in NY but accelerating in Texas.
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