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Well, the reopenings will definitely put the curve on an uptick. Americans are not going to stay home much longer. The best we can do now is try to mitigate that uptick w/public awareness, social distancing, disinfecting - and ramp up to deal with the inevitable increased hospitalizations and deaths.
I've repeatedly said, new therapies are continually coming to the fore - see Coronavirus Science thread on Current Events - and we are getting better at managing the hospitalizations, less use of ventilator, more use of less potentially damaging therapies. We need to find a way to live with this as we work our way through it because this virus will be with us for years.
THAT was the point of the shutdown in the first place. Until the tyrants that have gotten a taste of complete power have moved the goal post to "not even one death is acceptable".
We live with this, and work our way through this, like we do the flu. Take precautions, and go on with our lives.
And hospitalization rates among the 20 - 50 is around 25%. You want hospital bills, lack of income from being hospitalized, and possible lifelong health problems? Go for it!
And hospitalization rates among the 20 - 50 is around 25%. You want hospital bills, lack of income from being hospitalized, and possible lifelong health problems? Go for it!
Oh yes, much better to inflict loss of income, shutting down of businesses, bankruptcy and possible lifelong health problems that come from those things, because an infinitesimal number of people might be hospitalized.
Interesting development that I saw on NBC Nightly News just now, out of 177 kids that tested positive, 40% had no pre-existing conditions and 1 in 4 required hospitalization. So much for it don't effect kids...
"Nobody" with 1/8 of a brain says kids cannot get COVID.
Can I assume this 177 kids are those with this Kawasaki-like diagnosis?
there are 52MM in the US 19 or under. the case rate is somewhere around 3-5%
I don't think so much it is "living in fear". I know that "living in fear" is a right-wing response, but I think it is more than that. Yes, we will all die at some point and it is likely we will see our parents die sometime. What we don't come to terms with when we will. It is tough knowing how soon we may die. It is tough knowing our children can die before us. Some parents never recover from it, just look at parents that had a child taken away by cancer, a DUI or a school shooting. At least with those, there can be energy directed. Life is tragic and finite but we are never prepared for it.
you read it every day in these topics and in your own local forums - and especially on some Facebook Groups and Nextdoor if you're into those.
in my state, 6,445 cases age 25-49.
in my state, 63 deaths in that group.
that's a 1% chance of dying IF you get COVID ...
Now that NC's done quarantine for a month, we're running ~8% positive. It could be hypothesized that % positive would only go down as testing begins moving well beyond the symptomatic
So, in NC it could be said 10.5MM x 8% x 42% (rate of positives 25-49) = 352,800 cases. If deaths in this category triple, that's 189 deaths = 0.05% chance of a 25-49 year old NC resident dying from COVID.
That's otherwise known as 5 in 10,000. Also known as 9,995 do NOT die.
If we split out hospitalization rates by age group, we could do that exercise too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by serger
Lol, please tell me you are not serious assuming that 8% of the population in NC is infected. It is nowhere close to that.
If you re-read what I bolded then you would see. We are running about 8% positive. IF that held, despite trends, THEN the worst-case would be 8%.
You'll also note I SWAG'd a 3x mortality for this group - to be conservative ie "worst case"
Call it my very own IHME-like back of napkin projection if you like.
I sincerely hope that holds true, but my understanding is that not all RNA viruses are self-limiting.
All their planning suggests they hope this one is too. In reality it presentswith infinitely complex signs and symptoms that it's not just one and done.
I was not blaming Trump. I was stating that he has an issue of wanting it to look better for him than it really maybe if it looks bad for him. In this case, it was the death counts, especially as new models came in...
Sure you were...or blame for death counts. Everybody wants to blame Daddy. OK I get it....I really do.
But for ****s and giggles the behavior of a virus is like a teenage girlfriend on crack.
What do you think of IHME's projections for NC compared to SC and Georgia
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal
where is this?
nevermind, I saw later you were referring to IHME. I haven't seen anything resembling a simple explanation of how they model.
Personally, I quit worrying about models having watched closely from April 1 to ~April 10. Even by then, their estimates for cases but especially ICU needs were so far below reality.
it would be interesting to see how they arrived at 3x the deaths we've had any single day so far.
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