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Nor does the inflammatory OP acknowledge that the incidence of COVID cases seems to rise, peak, and fall later in the thinly-settled "flyover" regions than the densely-packed East Coast, with its larger portion of older housing.*
*And does anybody else here recall "Legionnaires' disease" (1976) which incubated in an older Philadelphia hotel hosting a convention patronized largely by WWII veterans -- mostly past the age of 50 at the time?
We must remember this: the purpose of the stay at home order was to prevent the hospitalization rate from outpacing available beds. Governors looked with horror at what was happening in New York City, as well as Italy and Spain.
We simply cannot keep the economy shut down until there are no new virus cases. That is impossible.
Anyway, a month ago there were close to 20,000 hospital beds available, as well as ventilators (I am not sure how many of the latter are available).
So, we are in a position, I believe, to reopen the economy if using wise guidelines.
If the spike in new cases also results in a spike in hospitalizations, and the number of available beds begins to significantly decrease, then a new stay at home order may be necessary. I imagine that if the number of beds declines to, say, 5,000, then Governor Abbott will revisit the issue.
As to the last, any new stay at home order will be ignored. Governor Abbott, by rallying to the side of that attractive blonde salon owner in Dallas (as well as Senator Cruz) whom reopened early and defied court orders, all but assured us that any future orders will be ignored.
Hopefully, it will not be necessary.
The answer is not to order everyone into an indefinite state of lockdown again, just because the hospital capacity starts to tighten up a bit. The answer - if that were to happen - will be to establish overflow facilities where treatment can be provided.
This whole government-mandated 'lockdown' fetish that some people have is warped and twisted, and it is approaching this problem from the wrong end.
I don't think hospital capacity will be the controlling factor. It is an attractive abstraction but not reality. One coming in the front entrance by ambulance for one going out the back door in a hearse is just not going to be acceptable when it's your mom, dad, aunt, sister, husband or children. Not only that, but rural hospitals have virtually no ability to accept many very sick patients. They lack the high level of urgent care in cities and are broke (especially in non-medicaid expansion states where millions have lost their employer coverage). We will shutdown again far short of the point where we are "Italy".
See this is the kind of answer that we always get. And it’s nonsense.
Oh my God it’ll be like Italy. It’ll be horrible, people will be dying... even if it’s just one person what if it’s your mother?
That’s not how you can govern a population! In my county twice as many people died by flipping their cars this month than died from this virus. No one is calling for getting rid of our cars. (Well maybe a few people… but not for safety reasons!)
We have learned a lot about how to treat this virus since the beginning. Hospitals far and wide now have that information going forward. We know how to better protect the elderly and the vulnerable. Most people who catch it now should be those young and active people who are coming into contact with it out in the wild. And most will recover without much, if any treatment needed. What we need to look for going forward are places where the local resources are actually being taxed. If that isn’t happening then we need to keep lifting more restrictions!
We can’t just keep going this way out of fear anyone might get sick. We need to get out and get this country going again. This is the reality we have to learn to cope with.
My two cents
Last edited by Diana Holbrook; 05-16-2020 at 09:59 AM..
Thank you, that answers most questions. What I really would like to see is capacity, also.
I'm in the camp that I thought this was way, way overblown from the beginning and although at 85K deaths right now it's higher than I thought it would get nation wide, it just seemed the fear has been unnecessary that we would run out of medical care capacity. Which has absolutely not happened with the possible exception of NYC.
Anyway, thanks so much for the data. Unless I'm missing it, the data also doesn't include how many are hospitalized.
Cases and fatalities, by county, are there but I could find that by state on WorldOMeter daily. That's such a tiny piece of the picture.
Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported
https://www.foxnews.com/us/colorado-...us-death-count ( Colorado has made a stunning and significant change to the way it counts COVID-19 deaths that reduced the statewide figure from more than 1,000 to 878, according to a report.
The change came after Colorado’s Department of Public Health admitted that its COVID-19 death toll was counting those who tested positive for the coronavirus but had died of other causes, Fox 31 Denver reported late Friday.) ( MY OP: this going start in other states as well)
See this is the kind of answer that we always get. And it’s nonsense.
Oh my God it’ll be like Italy. It’ll be horrible, people will be dying... even if it’s just one person what if it’s your mother?
That’s not how you can govern a population! In my county twice as many people died by flipping their cars this month than died from this virus. No one is calling for getting rid of our cars. (Well maybe a few people… but not for safety reasons!)
We have learned a lot about how to treat this virus since the beginning. Hospitals far and wide now have that information going forward. We know how to better protect the elderly and the vulnerable. Most people who catch it now should be those young and active people who are coming into contact with it out in the wild. What we need to look for going forward are places where the local resources are actually being taxed. If that isn’t happening then we need to keep lifting more restrictions!
I can’t just keep going this way out of fear anyone might get sick. We need to get out and get this country going again. This is the reality we have to learn to cope with.
My two cents
There is nothing "nonsense" in anything I wrote. It is fact, and I did not say OMG this is Italy. Attitudes change when loss is personal. Rural hospitals have very limited capacity and are financially challenged. Our tolerance is not likely to be maximum capacity. You clearly read with a jaundiced, defensive and biased eye that keeps you from comprehending what was actually written.
If the spike in new cases also results in a spike in hospitalizations, and the number of available beds begins to significantly decrease, then a new stay at home order may be necessary. I imagine that if the number of beds declines to, say, 5,000, then Governor Abbott will revisit the issue.
Hopefully he will abide by the science, the medical experts and the facts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by legalsea
As to the last, any new stay at home order will be ignored. Governor Abbott, by rallying to the side of that attractive blonde salon owner in Dallas (as well as Senator Cruz) whom reopened early and defied court orders, all but assured us that any future orders will be ignored.
I feel sorry for law enforcement. Governor signs a law, law enforcement does their job, then the Governor lacks the spine to back up the law he himself signed, leaving law enforcement twisting in the wind?
May 13, Texas had 1,636 new cases, a record high.
May 15, Texas has 2,012 new cases, smashing the record set just 48 hours prior.
This surge of new cases will result in a surge of new deaths in about 10 to 14 days.
The rush to reopen is and will take its toll in human suffering and death, there is no denying that.
The right wing is politicizing the pandemic, trying to make it into right vs. left. It isn't political, it's reason and science versus ignorance and uninformed populism.
Science doesn't care what you think. Ignore the science, pay the price.
Are they testing more? Absolute numbers of cases mean SQUAT if you don't consider the fact that the number of people tested is increasing, too.
The left-wing is politicizing this pandemic - trying to use it to push through their radical left-wing socialist Green Deal crap. "Never let a good crisis go to waste!"
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Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported
