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View Poll Results: How would you react to the availability of a vaccine?
I want that vaccine! Immediately! In fact, I'd get it even in the experimental stage! 1 2.86%
Yes, I'd certainly want to get the vaccine early on. 11 31.43%
Yes, I'll want to get the vaccine, but I know there will be millions lining up, so I won't make myself crazy rushing to get it. 4 11.43%
I'm definitely looking forward to the vaccine availability, but would wait for a while--maybe six months or a year--to see if any problems develop. 9 25.71%
No, I'm very wary of the vaccine and won't have any plans to get it. 10 28.57%
Voters: 35. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-11-2020, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Central Indiana
43 posts, read 22,433 times
Reputation: 48

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Quote:
Originally Posted by phetaroi View Post
My old neighbor in Colorado never had a flu shot in her life.
Died of pneumonia during flu season.
How old was your "old" neighbor?

Were there other complications?

If she had a flu shot at the age of, say, 90 - would that have saved her life?

Or would she have been allowed to have the flu shot because her health was otherwise too restricted to sustain the flu shot?

If I live to be "old"er than say 70 with all the asbestos, lead, radiation, germs, animal feces, etc that I've been exposed to, I'll count myself rather fortunate, to be quite honest, with or without a flu shot.

 
Old 05-11-2020, 03:20 PM
 
3,145 posts, read 2,665,813 times
Reputation: 11955
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
If herd immunity is real, then why is there a Flu Season? There shouldn't be one and yet there is.

In fact, why does Influenza exist at all? If herd immunity was real, then Influenza should have died out decades ago.

Why is there no herd immunity for the common cold?

Herd immunity is a hypothesis, not a theory. It's not been proven and it has never been demonstrated to rise to the level of theory.
This is untrue. The viruses that cause colds and influenza mutate throughout the year. As they mutate, people who had developed immunity to the old strain lose their protection. Some people's immune systems are more robust and may maintain immunity from one cold or influenza infection for several years against multiple mutations. Other people lose immunity within a year or less.

Another factor in colds and influenza is the forcing function of cold weather and close quarters. Rt of these viruses increases in the winter due to a variety of mechanisms, so that it is greater than 1. Influenzas and colds spread through a population, the population develops immunity, the colds and influenza die down, summer comes along and further reduces their prevalence.

If we had an influenza that mutated into a radically different form, and no one who was previously immune had any immunity to it, it would turn from and outbreak into an epidemic, and possibly to a pandemic.

Herd immunity does not eradicate a virus that has community spread, it merely tamps it down to background levels. This is likely to happen with COVID-19 once the majority of the population has been infected and either died or cleared the virus. We will probably have COVID-19 flare-ups for 2-3 years until a safe vaccine is created and administered to the entire population.

This is similar to what happened to measles and polio, and is reasonable to expect from this new virus. It is not an alien superbug. It is a common coronavirus for which we presently have only 2-to-20% immunity depending on the location. It is going to be a a long scary (and miserable-to-deadly for those who are symptomatic) summer until we get to 60-70% immunity. Or a miracle vaccine.
 
Old 05-11-2020, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
8,851 posts, read 5,805,396 times
Reputation: 11467
Will be jumping for joy. Although, would want assurance from medical/public health officials (and the FDA) that it is safe.
 
Old 05-11-2020, 04:12 PM
 
3,154 posts, read 2,043,984 times
Reputation: 9288
Quote:
Originally Posted by personone View Post
Will be jumping for joy. Although, would want assurance from medical/public health officials (and the FDA) that it is safe.
"I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help you".

Uh, oh.
 
Old 05-11-2020, 05:27 PM
 
Location: So. Calif
1,115 posts, read 948,603 times
Reputation: 2893
Quote:
Originally Posted by phetaroi View Post
My old neighbor in Colorado never had a flu shot in her life.
Died of pneumonia during flu season.
I have always gotten my flu shot and have not been ill. Will I get the vaccine? If my Internist thinks I should.
 
Old 05-11-2020, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Log "cabin" west of Bangor
7,058 posts, read 9,036,929 times
Reputation: 15628
Quote:
Originally Posted by phetaroi View Post
I'm not sure that's correct.

My understanding of why "regular" flu vaccinations are not more effective is that they are produced before we know exactly which strains of the flu are coming.

In the case of Corona, the exact strain or strains are already known.

But I'm no doctor.

Yes, it's a 'best estimate' as to which strains will be predominant. A number of strains will be circulating at any given time, it is not possible to predict exactly which of those strains will dominate. Some protection is better than none, even if it turns out that they guessed wrong and it is not 100% effective.

An Israeli company is already testing a covid vaccine.

Quote:
Last month, IIBR announced that it had begun testing a COVID-19 vaccine prototype on rodents.
https://www.jpost.com/health-science...vaccine-626913
 
Old 05-11-2020, 07:37 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,810,630 times
Reputation: 6690
They are testing all of the best candidates through the end of summer. The problem is to make sure we pick the best one(s) from a safety profile, it takes time we don't have. So the early adopters are taking a risk. But so are people who wait and see, since they are risking infection.
 
Old 05-12-2020, 07:39 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,258 posts, read 18,778,406 times
Reputation: 5090
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink View Post
To me, the "Game Changer" will not necessarily be a "preventative vaccine", but rather, an "effective treatment" that will minimize the effects of the virus. If, for instance, the odds of death or debilitating injury from Covid-19, could be greatly reduced from current (especially if almost no one would have to be intubated from it), the fear of getting it would be greatly reduced, and "herd immunity" could be established much earlier, there would be much less need for a preventative vaccine at that point.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if this horrible event resulted in the production of antiviral drugs that worked across the board to lessen the effect of ALL viral-borne diseases? Diseases like HIV, Ebola, Corona, Flu, even the common cold would be much less feared.

Hey, I can dream, right? By the way, I also want Oreos that taste exactly the same, but with only two calories each, and with all the antioxidants of broccoli.

Good points!

I can respect the "wait 6 months to see if problems develop" crowd given the speed it's being worked on (though that speed is understandable given the stakes involved and I voted a bit higher than that option), but if too large a percentage simply refuse it forever, it will waste the herculean efforts all our medical scientists around the world are doing now and means we will probably have to wait 1-3 years for this to go away to a point where we truly are back to "normal".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zymer View Post
Yes, it's a 'best estimate' as to which strains will be predominant. A number of strains will be circulating at any given time, it is not possible to predict exactly which of those strains will dominate. Some protection is better than none, even if it turns out that they guessed wrong and it is not 100% effective.

An Israeli company is already testing a covid vaccine.



https://www.jpost.com/health-science...vaccine-626913
That's great but a couple of candidates are actually well past testing in rodents and are up to Phase 2 in humans (i.e. the 2nd trial on them). The Oxford (UK), Pfizer (US/German) and one of the Chinese vaccines all succeeded in rhesus monkeys, a much closer creature to us genetically (however, there are examples of past vaccines that did well in them but not in humans before you get too excited).

Although I can't find the article now, Israel is very ahead of the pack on creating antibodies in the lab as a breakthrough treatment.
 
Old 05-12-2020, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Log "cabin" west of Bangor
7,058 posts, read 9,036,929 times
Reputation: 15628
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Although I can't find the article now, Israel is very ahead of the pack on creating antibodies in the lab as a breakthrough treatment.
Yes, that was the lead-off in the article I linked.
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