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If I recall (this is going back to a phone call in December), she said they were in no shape to drive, so they didn’t bother going to the doctor until a few weeks later . They live in a very rural area about 30 mins from the nearest hospital, but go into the nearest city a few times per week, which is presumably where they caught whatever they had. I don’t remember asking if they had been tested for the flu because, at the time, there was no reason to think it was anything but a flu. Anyway, like I said, anecdotal. If I ever hear any update (if they get an antibody test) I’ll report back.
It seems you are totally unaware of the fact that there was a problem with testing. Tests were rationed because there were too few test kits and they were being used to test people most likely to have positive results. There was no purposeful attempt to prevent cases from being found. As I mentioned above, researchers in Seattle looked for the virus in swabs obtained in January and February. The first positive swab was from February 21, well after the initial cases were reported in China.
The virus came from China to the US, not the other way around.
I am not saying you are wrong. I am saying I don't KNOW. I am saying that the CDC could tell me anything, in regards to the problems with testing, and I would not know if it were true or not. I have read, however, that during the time we were having all our trouble with testing.....South Korea was testing up to 20,000 people a day. Are they super geniuses in South Korea or something? Who is the super power with all the top technology and scientist in the world....the US or South Korea? A country of 330 million vs a country of 50 million and they could test 20,000 people a day and we could barely test 2,000.
You are asking me to believe that we are intellectually and technologically incompetent as a nation. I don't believe that.
sorry, i meant this quote: "The virus came from China to the US, not the other way around."
there is no unrefutable, scientific, peer-reviewed evidence of this.
I've seen reports that only one strain is found in china, whereas the US has 3 strains of the virus (and the US strains are not offsprings of the chinese strain), AUS has 2, taiwan has 2 or 3, etc.
i'm not claiming the virus did or did not start in the US or china. I am saying at this point, there is no definitive evidence to suggest we know where it began, and from what country it came to the US from.
for all we know, it could've began somewhere outside of wuhan, then brought there during the military games, then started to spread as the athletes returned home.
The virologists have developed a timeline based on genetics that shows when the virus first emerged.
All of the viral strains are offspring of the one first identified in China. That different strains are now predominant in different countries does not negate that fact.
All of the viral strains are offspring of the one first identified in China. That different strains are now predominant in different countries does not negate that fact.
That is one article out of many, one study out of many. You can find research that says that the greatest genetic diversity of the corona virus exists in the US and that the US has the PARENT strain, which they call the A strain, which the B and C strains descended from. Again, I don't know what is true. I am just reading research with no ability to prove any research true or false.
What I KNOW is that its much more beneficial to the US if the virus is believed to have started in China than if it is believed to have started in the US. People are already wanting to sue China, reduce trade with China, punish China...for the virus. If the origin of the virus was the US, that animus would be directed toward us. We would not just accept blame and face a global backlash. I don't know much for sure...but THIS I KNOW. The US does not take responsibility for any damages it brings to the world....or its domestic wrongs.
That is one article out of many, one study out of many. You can find research that says that the greatest genetic diversity of the corona virus exists in the US and that the US has the PARENT strain, which they call the A strain, which the B and C strains descended from. Again, I don't know what is true. I am just reading research with no ability to prove any research true or false.
What I KNOW is that its much more beneficial to the US if the virus is believed to have started in China than if it is believed to have started in the US. People are already wanting to sue China, reduce trade with China, punish China...for the virus. If the origin of the virus was the US, that animus would be directed toward us. We would not just accept blame and face a global backlash. I don't know much for sure...but THIS I KNOW. The US does not take responsibility for any damages it brings to the world....or its domestic wrongs.
The "A strain" started in China. After it spread it became the dominant "strain" in the US. Also, there is now some criticism of the paper that described the evolution of the "A strain."
I think we can probably assume that the bats were making people sick for some time before it mutated into the deadly and super contagious version.
The virus did not jump directly from bats to humans. There was an intermediate animal. Right now the most likely one is the pangolin, although there is no definitive proof of it.
What is not known is whether the virus mutated to the one found in the earliest cases while it was in the intermediate animal or after it jumped to humans.
This is purely anecdotal, so take it for what it’s worth. Both my parents were violently ill for about 10 days in the second half of November. My mom said she had flu-like symptoms and a dry cough for “almost 2 weeks,” and couldn’t lift herself out of bed for 6 days. My dad fared a bit better, but had similar symptoms. She said it was worse than any flu she had ever experienced. They told me about this in early December, before the world knew of Covid-19. I’m not saying it was Covid, but it is, at minimum, a little suspicious. I told her that when possible, they should go get an antibody test.
I agree your parents should get tested. If positive, it won't confirm they had it in November, but they'll know if they had it at all.
That is your claim, not a fact. There is numerous cases of evidence by Doctors that they are being urged to claim Covid is the cause, even when they are not sure. Also, the CDCs guidelines specifically state they are not required to verify if it is, merely any "speculation" is acceptable to establish it as such.
The guidelines specifically state that the death has to be due to COVID-19 in the best clinical judgement of the person certifying the death. That is not mere speculation.
"An accurate count of the number of deaths due to COVID–19 infection, which depends in part on proper death certification, is critical to ongoing public health surveillance and response. When a death is due to COVID–19, it is likely the UCOD [underlying cause of death] and thus, it should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I of the death certificate. Ideally, testing for COVID–19 should be conducted, but it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate without this confirmation if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.
"Within a reasonable degree of certainty" does not mean coding every death that happens as a COVID-19 death.
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Upon death, before Covid, deaths had to be established based on direct cause. That could mean someone could have the flu, but die of pneumonia. What was the cause of death? Flu? No, pneumonia. Covid deaths are being reported as the cause, even though it is not directly responsible for the death. This is validated by many doctors who said before the CDCs current Covid guidelines, they established cause of death base on what I explained, now it is pushed for covid if covid is present.
Many deaths have always been reported as probable or possible. If someone with known heart disease drops dead after having symptoms of a heart attack, the certificate will say probable or suspected or presumed myocardial infarction. Rarely will it be confirmed, because that would necessitate doing an autopsy.
If someone has flu and dies from pneumonia the underlying cause of death is influenza and the certificate should reflect that fact, though it may not. By the time the patient is critically ill a test for the virus may be negative.
There seems to be this idea that "pneumonia" is some free standing condition all by itself. Pneumonia has to have a cause.
Thus:
Respiratory failure due to pneumonia due to pneumococcal infection
Respiratory failure due to pneumonia due to influenza (influenza itself causes pneumonia)
Respiratory failure due to pneumonia due to secondary (bacterial) infection due to influenza.
Respiratory failure due to pneumonia due to COVID-19 (test for the virus was positive)
Respiratory failure due to pneumonia due to presumed or probable COVID-19 (case with features compatible with what, in the opinion of the person filling out the certificate was COVID-19 but for some reason it could not be confirmed with a test for the virus.)
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You are making a lot of words, and proclaiming excuses, but providing nothing in rebuttal to my point. Flu deaths are way down. That is fact. Why? Well, that should be looked into, but as I said, combined with Covid policy as is stated by the CDC, Covid is being leaned on regardless of cause of death. That is clear by the CDCs own guidelines.
No, the guidelines do not advocate misattributing COVID-19 deaths. See above.
I cannot help it if you do not understand that people are not catching flu because they are staying at home and are wearing masks when they do go out. The measures put into place to mitigate COVID-19 also have mitigated influenza. It really is that simple.
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Where does it say that you can disregard the liberties because you are afraid?
"The liberties" are not being disregarded. The Bill of Rights does not give you the "right" to do anything you want to whenever you want to.
It is constitutional to limit your "liberties" in order to prevent the spread of disease.
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You have every right to hide in a bubble house, to protect yourself form your fears. You have no right to dictate your fears to others. The founders, the Consitution, the Bill of rights differ with your reckless disregard of liberties. Might I suggest a bit of reading on those things before you presume to speak to their meaning?
Normally I would ignore the error, but if you are going to be snarky you might at least proofread your post and spell Constitution correctly.
Limitation of your "liberties" to prevent spread of disease is constitutional. I suggest you do a bit of reading before you presume to be a constitutional scholar.
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The founders did not put a condition on those things because of technology for a reason.
I think it can be assumed that none of them, even Ben Franklin, ever foresaw what technology can do today. However, Franklin lost a beloved child to smallpox and advocated inoculation against the disease. If Washington had not inoculated the army against smallpox, the American Revolution might have failed. The founding fathers were quite familiar with the concept of quarantine.
The fact remains that the measures being taken to slow down the virus are perfectly constitutional.
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Here is what you can do.
You can stay home, protect yourself by living in a clean room, having your food, items, etc... all cleaned and provided for you to the level of your satisfaction. You can make this choice to isolate yourself from humanity, to be scared, protected, and "safe" to your own mind.
That is your choice, you can take your individual liberty and achieve this by not infringing on a single person. We will avoid you, let you run off to your private utopia where you can live in such a way.
You will not however dictate to us. You have no right, no legitimacy to demand we subjugate ourselves to your ideology, your expectation or mindset.
Now you may be young, you may be ignorant of history of this country and you may be spoiled in having lived your life in a society that has provided you with the means to be free to live as you see fit. That however is naive, ignorant and dangerous, as such will be the downfall of any society that refuses to accept the lessons of history. So please understand...
We will not accept it, we will not comply and if you wish to force it, you will have to kill us, to commit violence upon us to serve your convulsed ideal of "good" and "safe". Just remember, when you do come to kill us, we will not go quietly. Remember that if we ever reach that point, that all that you will be dealing with will be because you were afraid of the flu and arrogant enough to disregard the liberties of others to make yourself feel safer.
Very interesting. I can see the possibility if not probability that the virus was let loose far earlier than was known.
I have repeatedly maintained it was in play in September/October.
You don't need to be an "expert" to understand epidemiology. It's taught in relation to several fields/disciplines and in 2nd/3rd year statistics.
It's all standard population models.
If you have a population of a certain initial size, how fast will it grow and how many years will it take to reach N-number of people?
If a gene mutates, how long will it take to spread through a given population so that 100% of the population possesses the mutate gene?
You can substitute population clusters for a population. Think of "clusters" as family groups, settlements, villages, towns, cities or whatever you want. Now, calculate how long it will take the mutated gene to spread.
Now, substitute "gene mutation" with "disease."
Your model is a little more complex, because now you're factoring in method of transmission, rate of transmission and number of contacts per day, plus the likelihood in percent that a contact results in successful transmission, because although possible, it's unlikely 100% of contacts results in 100% successful transmission of the disease.
There you go.
One person showing up in one of China's 33,000 hospitals in October is not an epidemic for the same reason one person showing up in one of America's 5,325 hospitals is not an epidemic.
Even if one person showed up at each of China's 33,000 hospitals on the same day, it's not an epidemic.
October-March is Flu Season in the Northern Hemisphere.
3,000 people dying in a US hospital of flu in October is not an epidemic, because it's expected that 3,000 people will die.
When 5,000-10,000 die of flu in October, that's an epidemic. That's more disease than anticipated, which is the definition of epidemic. People start asking questions and searching for answers.
With respect to COVID-19, for every 100 people who get it, 1 dies, ~20 are hospitalized, ~40 are confined to bed rest, but no medical people know they are, and the remaining have no symptoms.
Work backwards and you can see COVID-19 was operative as early as September/October, possibly as early as August.
No one would have noticed, because the deaths would be in trickles, and masked by Flu Season, since patients all present with flu-like symptoms.
It isn't until December, when in the course of 3 days there's 16 people show up at the same hospital dying of flu-like symptoms and they all happened to work at a seafood market.
By that time, there's 10s of 1,000s who have been infected and it's already spread to other States.
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. They live in a very rural area about 30 mins from the nearest hospital, but go into the nearest city a few times per week, which is presumably where they caught whatever they had. I don’t remember asking if they had been tested for the flu because, at the time, there was no reason to think it was anything but a flu. Anyway, like I said, anecdotal. If I ever hear any update (if they get an antibody test) I’ll report back.
