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There has a lot of discussion on how demographic changes will affect elections and political party strength. A lot of people had said will benefit democrats/liberals due to a more diverse racial (less white) population.
However, after doing some research I think instead the Aging population is the main demographic change which will instead help Republican/Conservatives! Older folks are a lot more conservative plus they actually show up to vote in larger numbers.
Here a great example of how USA population is aging and there will a whole lot more 60+ year people than younger ones. This shows maps of Ohio and the USA (if you scroll down).
Ohio is seeing a drastic change with a whole ton of 60+ people. In fact, I am willing to bet that is one of the main reasons Ohio has been a lot more solid Republican state. A lot of other swing states are also going that way (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn.)
In the next decades with large % of the USA population being older, they actually make Conservatives / Republicans stronger.
You bring up an interesting point. There will always be bleeding heart white leftists. But as they and other leftists continue to vilify white people for being white, I expect numerous heavily populated white states that currently vote blue to start swinging red over time. Note, we've already seen this transformation with some states (more so purple states going to red, though to be fair we've also seen some red and purple states go blue as their black and Hispanic populations increased), and states like PA, WI, and MN are primed for a rightward trend under the right circumstances.
Needless to say that I believe that these riots are going to backfire on Democrats spectacularly.
In the short-term, I think foreign immigration from poorer nations will help democrats (mainly because of immigration policy), e.g. immigrants prefer weak immigration rules so they can bring extended family members over. But on most other issues many of these immigrants actually tend to lean conservative.
But in the long-term, conservative folks & religious folks (who tend to be more traditional/conservative) have higher birthrates. In fact, studies show that the more religious a family is, the more likely they are to have more children.
And the more successful people become the more likely they are to vote conservative (this is why the Trump admin focuses so much on the economy -- the liberals know the economy can make or break Trump).
I think the cultural see-saw will swing back heavily toward traditionalism/conservatism. I think the majority of people realize that our pop-culture has become amoral, narcissistic -- people realize that all of the LGBTQ blah blah, trannies, "hate speech", safe spaces, and all of that other leftist B.S. has totally gotten out of hand. Because of our current times, I think most folks have generated a nostalgia for the good ol' days, the 1950s, stability, family, community, etc.
Will demographic change trigger a new conservative age in America?
There has a lot of discussion on how demographic changes will affect elections and political party strength. A lot of people had said will benefit democrats/liberals due to a more diverse racial (less white) population.
However, after doing some research I think instead the Aging population is the main demographic change which will instead help Republican/Conservatives! Older folks are a lot more conservative plus they actually show up to vote in larger numbers.
Here a great example of how USA population is aging and there will a whole lot more 60+ year people than younger ones. This shows maps of Ohio and the USA (if you scroll down).
Ohio is seeing a drastic change with a whole ton of 60+ people. In fact, I am willing to bet that is one of the main reasons Ohio has been a lot more solid Republican state. A lot of other swing states are also going that way (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn.)
In the next decades with large % of the USA population being older, they actually make Conservatives / Republicans stronger.
Actually, it's been shown time and again that for most people, the social and political attitudes they develop in their 20s are remarkably stable throughout their lives.
The people who are 70 and conservative today? Once they were 25 and conservative.
I'm a boomer. I've seen complaints here many times from young people about those conservative boomers. And it's absolutely true that most boomers weren't liberals.
1. White non-college population has been steadily dropping for over 20 years because it’s by far the nation’s oldest demographic bloc. It skews heavily Republican, but loses 2 to 3% of its share of the nation's registered voters every 4 years like clockwork.
2. White college grad population is slowly growing or at least holding steady. As a bloc they are far less likely to be Republicans.
3. Total minority registration increases by 2 to 3% every four years because they represent a younger population.
4. White evangelicals are falling as a percentage of voters in step with white non-college, because they also represent an older demographic. The fastest growing religious group is those with “no religious affiliation”.
5. There is no correlation between aging and voting conservative. Studies have shown that the politics of generations is established in young adulthood and while individuals can and do change the political persuasion of a generation as a whole doesn't change as we age.
6. In those states with increasing aging populations, there will be job opportunities for those from out of state to migrate in. The majority of that young population that would be more likely to migrate to another state will be white college grads or minorities.
Actually, it's been shown time and again that for most people, the social and political attitudes they develop in their 20s are remarkably stable throughout their lives.
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Definitely not the case with me.
I voted for Obama in 2008 (in my 20s), voted for Trump in 2016 (in my 30s).
Life experience and acquiring more knowledge had a lot to do with my changing political positions.
There are going to be a growing number of retirees with nothing saved up and a shrinking social security. I'll bet the majority votes for the party that gives out the most bennies.
Oh sure, there are always exceptions. I'm talking statistics here.
I'm 74. I'm about as liberal as I always was. That's because my views on morality and culture have remained consistent throughout my life.
If you've actually challenged yourself, engaged in deep self-reflection, researched various topics in politics, philosophy, history, etc, then I DO NOT understand how your views can stay exactly the same throughout your entire life. You might be intellectually stiff and inflexible.
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