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The trend is quite clear. I was just in three of these states, including a visit to my nephew in rural SC. The whole tone has changed there. The radio commercials were different. The younger people AND even the retirees moving in are moderates - and, god forbid, Democrats.
Florida has held onto GOP Rule by crookedness - there are more registered Dems in the state and soon it will be impossible to cheat the difference.
GA is headed Blue with time - Texas many take another cycle or two, but is clearly trending younger (1 in 3 texans are under-30).....
When these big states (electorally) are reliably blue or purple, is that effectively the end for the radical right? Or does it just stay content with some county rule and state legislatures based on gerrymandering?
Well, it depends. I don't think South Carolina will make a big difference due to a relatively small population. South Carolina couldn't do it by itself. It would need to go Democrat in tandem with North Carolina. Georgia and Texas are the two states I would watch.
The demographics are not on the side of the Republicans if they do not make some big changes. They're already outnumbered.
For starters they could drop the call for undoing gay marriage from their official platform and embrace that out of a notion of liberty rather than social justice. Then continue with all of the notions of control and conformity the religious right introduced that go against the very idea of liberty.
Eventually it will all play out like we have seen in other parts of the world. Dems may take over for a while but then people will get sick of them and go the other way. Unless of course the dems are successful and destroying America and then none of it will matter anyway. If the US get's bad enough you could actually have migration OUT of the US.
Who knows. WI and MI are drifting red pretty quickly. PA slowly. Ohio has drifted from purple to light red... Yes shrinking states but these are not population 400K farm states. I rather wish I could have seen the 2020 results without Cov 19 and the riots as I think they would have clarified many trends.
Given the evolution of the parties, things may stop, reverse or accelerate. Some of the recent stupidity by Dems lately has turned off some of my center left friends. Certainly not to the point of voting Trump, but I think their desire to vote has drastically dropped. Of course that may in itself, stop, reverse, or accelerate. If things stay the same, 2028 is the more likely year of hard changes.
Betting odds are slightly swaying Biden in PA, WIS and AZ but those websites are terrible way to predict. and could be purposely pumped by gamblers for Biden early on to increase Trumps win margins in Nov.
I honestly see the electoral map looking exactly the same this year except maybe for Mich.
I would like to be optimistic and think that there are some people out there that have some common sense.
But I honestly don't see the first Democrat running for election anywhere that has one tiny bit of common sense. And when I see the joint electorate of New York and California re-electing incredibly poor politicians time and time again, it's just difficult to be positive.
And the entire list of democrat candidates running for POTUS hasn't got one person that I'd vote for dog catcher. They're the most embarrassing bunch I've ever seen.
In the meantime, I'll keep staying in my ultra low COL state where life is simple, property taxes are incredibly low and where God is still in the hearts of most people. And as Hank Jr. says, "The country boy can survive."
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