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Old 07-10-2020, 07:45 AM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
89,006 posts, read 44,813,405 times
Reputation: 13707

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rachel976 View Post
How is explaining that based on statistics I am more likely to be harmed by a black man that a white man “illogical”? IT IS STATISTICALLY TRUE.

Of course, and just like a typical liberal, you ignored the part where I said the vast majority of black men would not harm a woman (or anyone), but because I pointed out something that doesn’t fit the liberal narrative, you call it illogical. Again, it’s STATISTICS.
Exactly so.

(Sorry, can't rep you again. )

 
Old 07-10-2020, 07:49 AM
 
21,109 posts, read 13,562,046 times
Reputation: 19723
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Higher up in the food chain? Nope. Look at how many White idiots OD on opioids/fentanyl. Even so, they're not disproportionately killing each other. They're taking themselves out. Darwin Award.
Those are legal drugs. We were discussing drugs that are always illegal. You can't refute the arguments, so you shift.

White people were at the top of the food chain collecting all the profits that the black people went to jail for the tiny amount they got street dealing coke/crack.

These days the Cartels own everyone regardless of color. I have no idea anymore how many non hispanic whites are higher up on the food chain, but I know it still isn't inner city blacks making much money but doing more of the prison time.

I know that whites and blacks use drugs at the same rate but blacks go to prison for it far more often. And for longer. And have less chances to reform after.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
5,281 posts, read 6,588,923 times
Reputation: 4405
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rachel976 View Post
How is explaining that based on statistics I am more likely to be harmed by a black man that a white man “illogical”? IT IS STATISTICALLY TRUE.

Of course, and just like a typical liberal, you ignored the part where I said the vast majority of black men would not harm a woman (or anyone), but because I pointed out something that doesn’t fit the liberal narrative, you call it illogical. Again, it’s STATISTICS.



You don't understand statistics, but pretend that you do. That is because you don't analyze them. I do. So let's analyze.




Let's first talk about distribution.




If America has 300 million citizens. Yet only produces 16k murders. Then murder isn't a very common death for Americans in general. So that would mean that the risk level is low, no matter what race of the person.


America has 40 million black people. If black people commit 8k of those murders. Then that means that far less that 1% of black people commit murders of any kind.




Other violent crimes are far more evenly distributed among race. Murder is the only stat where blacks are disproportionate.


But murder itself is not a common crime.



Other statistical facts that you're ignoring:






People are usually murdered by people they know


People are usually murdered by someone of the same race


So if you're a white woman. You're far more likely to be murdered by a white man that you know, than you are to be murdered by a black man.




What we need to talk about are risk models. There is nothing statistically that suggest that there is a high risk of being assaulted or murdered by a black man.



Stating that black men kill 5x the rate of black males, is simply a statistical statement that has little impact on a risk model. Because you're not accounting for scale. There are simply not enough murders to introduce any tangible risks.


So the reality is that your fear is completely irrational. Or you simply do not know how to analyze statistics. But it's certainly not based in any real statistical reality.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 07:56 AM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
9,701 posts, read 5,111,909 times
Reputation: 4270
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Total BS. What makes you think Whites in poverty have better living options than Blacks in poverty?

We're not talking about common robbery. The thread topic is Blacks killing other Blacks. Even Jesse Jackson admitted that he's FAR more likely to be killed by another Black than by a White.

Why on earth would you believe that to be true?
Crime rates are a factor of population. Every city has a multiplier effect on crime versus surrounding rural areas, across the board. I guarantee you will not find a single suburb with higher rates of crime than its nearest top 50 city.

You have x times as much theft, assault, rapes, etc in cities than you do in surrounding areas. That's a fact. When the overwhelming majority of Black people live in cities, you're going to see that same multiplier in their crime rates versus if they lived in the rule or suburban areas.

Again, Jesse Jackson made a comment. This isn't some empirical study where he weighed the actual odds of him getting robbed or attacked. You're taking some off-the-cuff comment and holding it to some standard like this was published in a peer-reviewed journal is silly.

And again, the odds of being a victim of robbery is remote. The idea that anyone is using the statistic that a remote outcome that's x times more likely than another remote outcome is something they are actually concerned about is either lying or deluded.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
9,701 posts, read 5,111,909 times
Reputation: 4270
Quote:
Originally Posted by branh0913 View Post
You don't understand statistics, but pretend that you do. That is because you don't analyze them. I do. So let's analyze.




Let's first talk about distribution.




If America has 300 million citizens. Yet only produces 16k murders. Then murder isn't a very common death for Americans in general. So that would mean that the risk level is low, no matter what race of the person.


America has 40 million black people. If black people commit 8k of those murders. Then that means that far less that 1% of black people commit murders of any kind.




Other violent crimes are far more evenly distributed among race. Murder is the only stat where blacks are disproportionate.


But murder itself is not a common crime.



Other statistical facts that you're ignoring:






People are usually murdered by people they know


People are usually murdered by someone of the same race


So if you're a white woman. You're far more likely to be murdered by a white man that you know, than you are to be murdered by a black man.




What we need to talk about are risk models. There is nothing statistically that suggest that there is a high risk of being assaulted or murdered by a black man.



Stating that black men kill 5x the rate of black males, is simply a statistical statement that has little impact on a risk model. Because you're not accounting for scale. There are simply not enough murders to introduce any tangible risks.


So the reality is that your fear is completely irrational. Or you simply do not know how to analyze statistics. But it's certainly not based in any real statistical reality.
Personally, I cross the street when I have to walk under Gothic style architecture bc of that .0016% chance of a gargoyle falling on my head.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 08:01 AM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
89,006 posts, read 44,813,405 times
Reputation: 13707
Quote:
Originally Posted by jencam View Post
Those are legal drugs.
Not always. They're sold sans prescription as street drugs and are regularly and illegally imported from China and increasingly, Mexico.

Quote:
White people were at the top of the food chain collecting all the profits that the black people went to jail for the tiny amount they got street dealing coke/crack.

These days the Cartels own everyone regardless of color. I have no idea anymore how many non hispanic whites are higher up on the food chain, but I know it still isn't inner city blacks making much money but doing more of the prison time.

I know that whites and blacks use drugs at the same rate but blacks go to prison for it far more often. And for longer. And have less chances to reform after.
You really have NO clue of which you speak. DON'T do the crime = NO prison sentence.

And again, you're diverting from the topic of the thread, Black People Killing Black People, to insert your nonsense.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 08:05 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
5,281 posts, read 6,588,923 times
Reputation: 4405
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddieB.Good View Post
Crime rates are a factor of population. Every city has a multiplier effect on crime versus surrounding rural areas, across the board. I guarantee you will not find a single suburb with higher rates of crime than its nearest top 50 city.

You have x times as much theft, assault, rapes, etc in cities than you do in surrounding areas. That's a fact. When the overwhelming majority of Black people live in cities, you're going to see that same multiplier in their crime rates versus if they lived in the rule or suburban areas.

Again, Jesse Jackson made a comment. This isn't some empirical study where he weighed the actual odds of him getting robbed or attacked. You're taking some off-the-cuff comment and holding it to some standard like this was published in a peer-reviewed journal is silly.

And again, the odds of being a victim of robbery is remote. The idea that anyone is using the statistic that a remote outcome that's x times more likely than another remote outcome is something they are actually concerned about is either lying or deluded.





People like to pretend that they had a fully clear head. Happened upon some sort of statistic. And now they're just people dispassionately quoting facts.


The reality is, people already come to stastics with a bias. Look at the stat. Then quickly try to form it into their world view


I've been talking about risk models for 2 days. I've given facts about murder, chances of being murdered, and how even based on their own statistics, that it leads to no higher odds of anything.


But we come back to square one. They'll still spam the same statistic, with no analysis. Because it's not about mathematics. It's all about bias confirmation.


The main people quoting statistics, are the main people who care very little about them. In my field statistics is where you start a conversation. Not where you end them. People who just throw a statistic at you, are trying to shut you up. Because they lack the ability to actually debate what these mean. They lack the analytical skills to actually engage in some sort of political discourse.


That is why I press the people complaining the hardest and loudest to come up with some sort of solution. The reality is these people are just as emotional as the people they talk against. I think the thing is, their political opponents are honest about it. They're not
 
Old 07-10-2020, 08:06 AM
 
3,354 posts, read 1,184,048 times
Reputation: 2278
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Total BS. What makes you think Whites in poverty have better living options than Blacks in poverty?

We're not talking about common robbery. The thread topic is Blacks killing other Blacks. Even Jesse Jackson admitted that he's FAR more likely to be killed by another Black than by a White.

Why on earth would you believe that to be true?
So then why are blacks more likely to be killed by other blacks, hmmmm? Hint. It has not a thing to do with poverty.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 08:09 AM
 
Location: the very edge of the continent
89,006 posts, read 44,813,405 times
Reputation: 13707
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic View Post
So then why are blacks more likely to be killed by other blacks, hmmmm? Hint. It has not a thing to do with poverty.
Post your theory.
 
Old 07-10-2020, 08:11 AM
 
3,354 posts, read 1,184,048 times
Reputation: 2278
Quote:
Originally Posted by InformedConsent View Post
Higher up in the food chain? Nope. Look at how many White idiots OD on opioids/fentanyl. Even so, they're not disproportionately killing each other. They're taking themselves out. Darwin Award.
Wow. So whites enjoy getting rid of other whites who end up on drugs or go down the tubes in some other way? Guess I’m right then. White society is a wealth only, greed only, perfectionism only society.
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