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OP is wrong. Deaths are way down. They can't even call it a pandemic anymore.
The OP is not wrong because deaths are again rising. Over 900 a day average for the past 3 days higher than anytime in early June. This week will have more deaths that the previous week and the trend is obviously up. Just because you have convinced yourself that the Pandemic is over does not make it true.
So deaths just happen out of nowhere? And death rates from cases mean nothing?
Percentage of cases that result in fatality means everything in the final death rate. Almost 70,000 cases diagnosed today which will be a new record by a large margin. But we are diagnosing a lot more people than in April (about 38,000 diagnosed on the highest day in April and the highest daily death toll is about about 2700). For the case fatality rate to stay the same, we would have about 5,000 deaths a day in about three weeks if the true average lag is 3 weeks. But I'm sure we won't because a much larger percentage of those diagnosed today will recover than those diagnosed in April, mainly due to the much more widespread testing catching mild cases that wouldn't have been caught in April but also due to better treatments. I'm thinking the U.S. daily death rates might rise for the next few weeks though but not sure by how much.
Texas, Arizona and South Carolina have all seen their death toll from covid-19 rise by more than 100 percent in the last four weeks. Four more states — Mississippi, Tennessee, California and Louisiana — have seen at least a 20 percent jump in that time span The tolls in Arizona, Tennessee, Montana and Utah tied with their previous high. Nationwide, more than 4,000 people have died from coronavirus since last Friday.
Some health experts cautioned that it was too early to predict a continuing trend from only a few days of data. But on Friday, Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, struck a different tone than President Trump has in recent days, saying that she expects to soon see an increase in deaths.
“In the United States, we have increased number of cases over the last particularly three weeks,†Dr. Birx said during a virtual panel on the virus organized by the International AIDS Society. “We have not seen this result in increased mortality, but that is expected as the disease continues to spread in some of our large metro areas".
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“We have the highest number of Covid-19 hospitalizations to date, with a 24 percent increase since July 1,†said Judge Clay Jenkins, Dallas County’s chief executive, who is responsible for issuing health and safety orders to combat the outbreak. “Deaths are the most lagging indicator of the virus so we won’t see any correlation with our current high case counts and record hospitalizations and then deaths for several more weeks.â€
Random notes:
At least 131,000 people have died from coronavirus in the U.S.
Deaths occur weeks after infections, so any rise in deaths would be expected to come later than a rise in cases.
Cases are rising rapidly.
Many experts predicted that the declining death tolls were unlikely to last because the young would spread it to older people and those more vulnerable.
Not only old and sick people succumb to this virus, however. Among those who died of the virus in recent days was a 30-year-old man from Nashville who played the organ in church; a 39-year-old mother from St. Augustine, Fla., who told her six children goodbye on a hospital speaker phone. These are only 2 of many others under the age of 45 that have died. Just offered as a cautionary note to any interested.
Your PM wouldn't recognize science if it bit him in the Butt.
Thankfully, at least he knows what he doesn't know, and lets the scientists and medical experts provide the advise.
Unless the Trumpenfuhrer, who, according to him, knows more than anyone else about everything. Just ask him.
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Surely you are not so naive to think that all scientists or even most scientists agree on any topic.
So what? If 99 doctors tell you that you need surgery to get rid of a tumor, are going to listen to the one who says he can heal you be providing a homeopathic ointment?
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BTW, the goal isn't to have the fewest deaths.
And the USA is doing just wonderful by that metric....it has the most deaths in the world. 'Murica!
Percentage of cases that result in fatality means everything in the final death rate.
No not everything. The amount of cases also is very important. And the deaths are rising very quickly in the big hot spot states. That will spill over into the other states where cases are rising which are now most states.
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Originally Posted by ThinkingOutsideTheBox
Almost 70,000 cases diagnosed today which will be a new record by a large margin. But we are diagnosing a lot more people than in April (about 38,000 diagnosed on the highest day in April and the highest daily death toll is about about 2700). For the case fatality rate to stay the same, we would have about 5,000 deaths a day in about three weeks if the true average lag is 3 weeks. But I'm sure we won't because a much larger percentage of those diagnosed today will recover than those diagnosed in April, mainly due to the much more widespread testing catching mild cases that wouldn't have been caught in April but also due to better treatments. I'm thinking the U.S. daily death rates might rise for the next few weeks though but not sure by how much.
We are not going to have the same fatality rate because we are better at helping patients recover. Today we had close to or more than 70,000 cases. I have said for a while we will hit 100,000 soon. So the fatality rate can be cut in half and still have more deaths. Regardless its a problem. In Arizona 25% of all deaths are covid. Daily deaths are up from 150 a day to 200. My guess from the numbers we will exceed 2,000 deaths a day in a few weeks. Whether we break the old record or not does not matter. Its bad regardless.
Yet some people are saying since not as many are dying each day compared to the worst in March or April we should not worry about this at all.
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