Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
 
Old 07-20-2020, 02:44 PM
 
5,450 posts, read 2,688,477 times
Reputation: 2538

Advertisements

If you are a Democrat don't write this off because it might be true in which cases it's a big wake up call




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVv8a0ue1fc







The Primary Model

It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries (rather than polls) and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote.


Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.

The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.

In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. 2016 — The Primary Model.


Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders split the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina while Trump handily won the Republican Primary in New Hampshire (the GOP primary in South Carolina was cancelled this year).

What favors Trump in 2020 as well is the cycle of presidential elections operating for nearly 200 years, as illustrated by the snapshot since 1960. After one term in the White House the incumbent party is favored to win re-election unlike the situation when it has held office for two or more terms.

As for Trump, trailing Democratic contenders is nothing new for him. He was behind Hillary Clinton in polls at just about every moment in 2016 and wound up winning the election. This was by no means the rare exception that proves the rule. The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall. The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Dewey (1948) it spans Nixon (1960), Carter (1980), Dukakis (1988), Bush (1992), and Kerry (2004), to cite just the most spectacular cases. Warning: Polls in the spring are barely better than a coin flip to predict the winner in November.

__________________________________________________ _____________________________

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Norpoth

Helmut Norpoth (born 1943) is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model, which has correctly predicted five of the six previous US elections.[1] The Primary Model correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election.

Research and Recent Publications

"Fighting to Win: Wartime Morale in the American Public" with Andrew H. Sidman (2012)

"Yes, Prime Minister: The Key to Forecasting British Elections" with Matthew Lebo (2011)

"The New Deal Realignment in Real Time" with Andrew H. Sidman and Clara Suong

"History and Primary: The Obama Re-election" with Michael Bednarczuk

"Guns 'N Jobs: The FDR Legacy" with Alexa Bankert

Last edited by jonbenson; 07-20-2020 at 03:24 PM..
Quick reply to this message

 
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:
Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top