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I think the Dems will win but by a thin margin maybe a seat or two. With that said if Trumps wins I'll be glad to know the Dems will deny him all his extremist unqualified judges and cabinet members and keep him in line.
UK bookmakers lost a ton of money in 2016. I have no clue what will happen this year. I doubt anyone else really does either.
If the stock market is even higher on Nov. 3 than it is now, then it will mean the virus crisis is over and Trump will win. It will likely have to do with vaccines already out that will be proven safe and effective.
"The Democrats' odds to retake the Senate remained steady Wednesday as UK bookmaker Ladbrokes has the Republicans at -137 to have fewer than 50 seats after the November election and +200 to retain their majority."
The ones that will lose are flakey RINO's. Collins in Maine, Gardner in Colorado and McSally in Arizona who was APPOINTED to the seat. We will win back Alabama thankfully.
I'm not so sure about the Senate. Remember, the Senate is based on 2 seats in each state. There are a lot of ruby red states out there with only a few electoral votes - and they have the same voting power as CA and NY in the Senate.
There are only a few states out there with mixed representation in the Senate. For the most part, Senate seats follow Presidential votes. Not all the time, but for the MOST part. That gives Republicans an inherent advantage in the Senate since they pick up more states than Democrats tend to.
There are a few Senators that buck that trend though. Joe Manchin is the best example. Democrat in one of the most red states in the nation. However, he also votes the most with Trump's agenda of all Democrats. However, that has kept him in office in WV for a while now.
Point is, this election cycle, I fully expect many seats to return to represent the presidential preference in that state. Democrats need 4 pick-ups among AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME, MT, NC and SC. AZ and CO seem the most likely. Followed by ME. Past that, you need Biden to push down ballot Senators over the top. I don't see GA or IA happening. MT is an enigma. Tester(D) won in 2018 which was as surprise to some. Maybe he's like Manchin though. Bullock (D) was a governor there. But Daines is the incumbent. MT might surprise us, but I'd hedge my bets on the Republican keeping that seat in MT. SC is too red to vote out Graham. That pretty much leaves NC. I'd watch the Biden polls in NC closely. It is possible NC splits its vote. They did do just that in 2016 - voted Trump for President and Cooper(D) for Governor. So, maybe it can happen in that state again.
Overall, I'd put the odds of Democrats winning the Senate at 40% or so. I think polls are going to tighten up. CO seems a likely flip in most scenarios. But, I think Democrats' hopes are sunk if the race tightens in AZ. While McSally (R) did lose in 2018, she has a good shot of protecting her appointed Senate seat with Trump on the ticket.
McSally does not have a snowball's chance in hell (or Arizona) of retaining her seat. Trump is probably going to lose there too, but it is too close to call. Tillis has not lead in a NC poll in quite some time. But NC is a tough place to predict. Harris should boost black turnout and that could be the difference this time. With a Biden victory the Ds need only to net pickup up three. It's doable.
I think taking the senate is going to be difficult, but doable.
8 months ago, I felt that Trump had a "pretty good" shot at getting reelected. Today? It's at least 50/50, he's in REAL danger of losing. Senate is a tough battle and dems really need to play their cards right.
But if....IF the Dems take both the White House & the Senate to where they control the entire United States government, it would be awesome.
I think taking the senate is going to be difficult, but doable.
8 months ago, I felt that Trump had a "pretty good" shot at getting reelected. Today? It's at least 50/50, he's in REAL danger of losing. Senate is a tough battle and dems really need to play their cards right.
But if....IF the Dems take both the White House & the Senate to where they control the entire United States government, it would be awesome.
Yes, it would. Divided government has its positives, but in an age of partisan non-cooperation like we are experiencing, it is making our problems unsolvable. A period of one party rule with a moderate Democrat as president and a narrow Senate majority is the best we can hope for.
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