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View Poll Results: If we had continued living like it was 2019, around what would the Covid death count in the U.S. cur
Around the same or slightly higher: still less than 200,000 21 53.85%
200,000 to 500,000 7 17.95%
500,000 to 1,000,000 3 7.69%
1,000,000 to 2,000,000 1 2.56%
2,000,000 to 5,000,000 2 5.13%
5,000,000 to 10,000,000 1 2.56%
Over 10 million 4 10.26%
Voters: 39. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-13-2020, 03:01 PM
 
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If we had continued living like it was 2019 in the U.S., with everything wide open, conventions, concerts, and other huge group gatherings still being held on close quarters, the word "social distancing" unheard of, and masks reserved for Halloween or Mardi Gras costumes, how much higher do you think would the Covid death count be today? As of now, it's around 170,000.





A) around the same or maybe slightly higher: still less than 200,000
B) between 200,000 and 500,000
C) between 500,000 and 1,000,000
D) between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000
E) between 2,000,000 and 5,000,000
F) between 5,000,000 and 10,000,000
G) Over 10 million
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:06 PM
 
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If everyone followed Gov. Cuomo and killed off all the old timers in assisted living centers how many would that be ? Body count, what would it be ?
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Florida
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Hard to say. Trump says it would be in the millions.
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Old 08-13-2020, 03:54 PM
 
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My guess is about half the population might be immune (based on T cell studies and personal cases I know where one spouse got it and the other tested negative despite sharing the same bed) so if 30 percent of the population got it, it might lead to some herd immunity and the true case fatality rate might be around .5 percent so my guess is maybe the toll would be around 500,000 by now.
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Old 08-14-2020, 02:09 PM
 
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Sweden never mandated any closures and allowed people to live mostly as they did pre-Covid but I think a good number of the at risk population stayed in by choice and avoided crowds. Also in Sweden, you have far more singles living alone than with roommates or family so the low risk population was far less likely to spread it to the high risk population. Any Swedes or anyone with first hand knowledge of how things were in Sweden for the past few months?
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Old 08-14-2020, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
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It's very hard to try to say how many deaths would occur.
In the past, people were much quicker to quarantine themselves as soon as a killer disease appeared. Even when self-quarantining was so difficult it could mean starvation, people did it. Starvation wasn't as sure as death from the disease.

We all just got used to thinking we are protected from killer disease. So quarantine is novel, unpleasant and new to us.

We have all spent less of our lifetimes in isolation from others as well. When the United States was still mostly farmers, quarantine was no big deal; it was only a bit more isolation than normal.
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Old 08-14-2020, 04:11 PM
Status: "Proud Trumptino!" (set 19 days ago)
 
Location: USA
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Its not going away anywhere except NZ, and probably not even there, so we will find out. I would go with the 200k # this year, less than half of that next, then half again. Then it will go the way of other Pandemics.
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Old 08-14-2020, 06:12 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LS Jaun View Post
Its not going away anywhere except NZ, and probably not even there, so we will find out. I would go with the 200k # this year, less than half of that next, then half again. Then it will go the way of other Pandemics.

New Zealand thought they had contained this virus after being Covid free for a 100 days, and then a small outbreak occurs: they will be trying to play whack-a-mole everytime there's a small outbreak to see if they can contain the virus until a vaccine is widely available. No guarantees: in another month or so, the virus could spread widely there.
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Old 02-21-2022, 10:59 PM
 
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Update: a year and a half later: given that I think the vaccines were mostly useless and had minimal effect, the last several months show what a "let it rip" policy looks like: far more infections (the average daily cases in January of 2022 peaked at nearly 3 times the peak of January, 2021) but similar in terms of deaths and hospitalizations. Even leftist CA is easing up on mask mandates in some pareas but select places are still trying to enforce vaccine passports.
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Old 02-22-2022, 03:04 AM
 
Location: Sector 001
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Pure guess on my part...200k-500k.more deaths, mostly elderly and obese. Not worth the damage down to the supply chain, economy, and the psychological health of many.
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