Democrat California has 6,469 cases of COVID-19, While Republican Arizona down to 468

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by roodd279

The death rate is what's important.

Nope. The hospitalization rate is what's important. Dead people do not need hospitals. We are not at risk of running out of funeral parlors. We are at risk (at the community level) of having no hospital beds for whoever needs it next, heart attack, gunshot, whatever.


That's the stated official mission of Flatten the Curve - to preserve medical resources. That's it. Stopping death does not appear in the statement. Flatten the Curve may prevent death as better treatments appear but that's not the main goal - which is, only to postpone things as long as possible. We're doing a good job.


You're right, maybe 99% of people don't need care. 1% is 3 million. That's more hospital beds than we have.

It certainly has been the local hospitalization numbers being most important, especially at the start. But as the Pandemic evolves, and medical treatments, recommendations and policies change, the death rate is beginning to become more the focus now.

Most hospitals and systems have prepped and adapted enough by now so that the over running of local acute HC facilities is much less a concern. Transfers are now easier and safer, and hospitals are moving patients much more easily to specialized facilities. While those specialized facilities move their less sick elsewhere.

I am no longer in practice, but I'm told in AZ these transfers are now smooth and ongoing, but now on the downswing as things are generally improving. Our small town hospital has taken less sick patients from the big cities.

[roodd279]

the death rate is beginning to become more the focus now.

Maybe for bystanders, or some media, or politicos on either side - but the focus of all the action or policies is to slow down the spread. That has not changed. It's true that by slowing things down, better treatments have appeared, and time has passed, towards a vaccine.


But in the end - if it were not a threat to overload our health care system anywhere, at anytime, it would be a non-issue.



(Far fewer than 150K people would have to die, for that to be the case, so there IS a connection, but it's not really cause and effect...)

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by roodd279

the death rate is beginning to become more the focus now.

Maybe for bystanders, or some media, or politicos on either side - but the focus of all the action or policies is to slow down the spread. That has not changed. It's true that by slowing things down, better treatments have appeared, and time has passed, towards a vaccine.


But in the end - if it were not a threat to overload our health care system anywhere, at anytime, it would be a non-issue.



(Far fewer than 150K people would have to die, for that to be the case, so there IS a connection, but it's not really cause and effect...)

At the start in March, even our small rural hospital had to put electives an hold and prep for the Pandemic. We knew we would not initially get a heavy case load. But no one at the time knew the actions and time frame of the virus. Then we sat with little to do. And then after our too early release Memorial Day we eventually had more of a rough time. Since then we and most hospitals have had time to adapt. So now very few hospitals are at that overload point. And those that are, have improved release mechanisms in place. At least we do now in AZ.

So the focus is moving toward treatment and saving the health and lives with new therapies coming online. We will soon see monoclonal AB treatments, and IMO that will very likely turn Covid 19 into a less than lethal disease if it can be ramped up with enough speed and volume. Of course lockdowns will always help with slowing spread and help preserve those at most risk until we reach the next goal. But specifically keeping hospitalization numbers down is now less a priority.