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Reports of new cases tend to increase as the week progresses. Tuesday's total for India is higher than Monday but down significantly from the previous Tuesday.
Yep this seems like the pretty common pattern all over the world. A country gets a surge, measures are tightened, and it goes back down. Rinse, repeat.
We'll see more and more like USA where 4th wave that hit so many other countries hard was blunted by vaccination efforts, hopefully getting to where surges are relatively insignificant.
One of the reasons for this decline could be low testing rates. According to official numbers, India tested around 19 lakh samples on April 30 whereas, just over 15 lakh on May 3.
If you don't test -- you don't have positive cases right?
Farr showed that epidemics rise and fall in roughly a bell shaped curve (a normal distribution) shape.
Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred.
In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days.
Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on the assumption that the infection has already started falling in the same progressive steps.
In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognise the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to ‘density’ that require special considerations.
But most of all we must remember the message Farr left us: what goes up must come down.
Last edited by MissTerri; 05-12-2021 at 06:52 AM..
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