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While there have been very few polls recently from the state, the ones that do exist show a tight race. However, there's some evidence that Democrats are doing well in at least some areas.
First, in Butler County, Democratic registration has been outpacing Republican 4-1. Republican registrations have declined by 30,000 and absentee ballot requests favor Democrats 2-1, the opposite of what it was in 2016. Trump won Butler County, which is just outside of Cincinnati, by 28 points. While Trump is still likely to win it, this suggests strong movement towards the Democrats in these types of suburban counties.
Let's look at Hamilton County itself, home of Cincinnati. Clinton won it in 2016, one of only a handful of Ohio counties that went for the Democrat that year, but there are also obvious trends. Here are registration party affiliation changes, again showing a pretty clear trend- Democrats have gained about 15x more affiliation switchers than Republicans:
Amazing.
14,000 posts critical of Trump and you found something to support your view.
Two things- 1. Some people are posting multiple posts under more than one name, and 2. This forum clearly is far more Republican-leaning and not representative of the general electorate.
In the interim between 2016 and now, Ohio elected a Right wing Republican Christian pro-life governor. The political map of Ohio looks like a huge red heart with a few blue blemishes in the larger cities. The Toledo Blade newspaper did a series not too long ago where they sent college interns out to various corners of the state and had them measure the political current and every one of them were about 3/1 Trump supporters.
I have a family member who works for the Ohio Republican Party. Her territory is NW Ohio which is some of the reddest country in the entire nation. Only Toledo and possibly Lima trend Blue, otherwise Trump is going to take this region by a landslide. I promise.
My prediction as an Ohio native and citing the above: Trump wins the state handily by at least 10 points.
Two things- 1. Some people are posting multiple posts under more than one name, and 2. This forum clearly is far more Republican-leaning and not representative of the general electorate.
In the interim between 2016 and now, Ohio elected a Right wing Republican Christian pro-life governor. The political map of Ohio looks like a huge red heart with a few blue blemishes in the larger cities. The Toledo Blade newspaper did a series not too long ago where they sent college interns out to various corners of the state and had them measure the political current and every one of them were about 3/1 Trump supporters.
I have a family member who works for the Ohio Republican Party. Her territory is NW Ohio which is some of the reddest country in the entire nation. Only Toledo and possibly Lima trend Blue, otherwise Trump is going to take this region by a landslide. I promise.
My prediction as an Ohio native and citing the above: Trump wins the state handily by at least 10 points.
I'm also an Ohio native. He's not going to win it by 10 points or even the 8 points he won it in 2016. Not saying Trump can't win, because obviously he can. My post is about trends, and if Trump is losing a ton of voters in heavily populated conservative counties like Butler, that's bad news for him. I agree with you that NW Ohio-northern Miami Valley counties are going to Trump. That's an easy call, as that is arguably the most conservative part of the state. But rural counties are almost always Republican counties regardless of the election. The question is how big those margins will be, as well as the margins in metro counties with large suburban areas like Butler that also have bigger populations equal to 3-4 rural counties.
I wouldn't call DeWine far right-wing. He probably is on abortion, for sure, but he's been a lot less so on other issues. He also handled the pandemic well early on- not so much more recently, but he was getting praise even from progressives and liberals in the spring because he was following the science when many other Republican governors didn't. I don't personally like DeWine, but there are definitely a lot worse governors out there.
I think the election is going to be within 2 points either direction.
I didn't suggest it was you. Guilty conscience much?
Also, any comment on the data?
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Uh... no. I'm just one person.
