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Old 08-19-2020, 02:39 PM
 
4,022 posts, read 1,876,931 times
Reputation: 8647

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Interesting thought-experiment on mask wearing – when considered as a way for contagious folks to limit the spread. **

(When I say “mask wearing” I am referring to masks…but also to social distancing, handwashing, avoiding crowds, and generally not being stupid. I shall call all of it “ wearing a mask.”)

About 1,000,000 people (USA) are walking around contagious right now.*

  • If you test positive for COVID tomorrow – it means all your previous mask wearing was for nothing.
  • If you test positive for anti-bodies tomorrow – it means all but 2 weeks of your previous mask wearing was for nothing.
  • If you go til next spring and never test positive for antibodies – then, no matter what happens, more than 95% of all your mask wearing will always be for nothing.
  • Despite points 1 thru 3 – all the spread is from folks NOT wearing a mask.
  • If just half of the contagious non-mask-wearers would wear a mask, covid would be gone in two weeks. (That's about 150,000 people...somewhere...)

If you feel COVID is overblown – your constant complaining about it has had zero results. Not one nation, anywhere has responded by declaring COVID a hoax, and eradicated. Nope. I’m beginning to think you might be wrong – and there might be a deadly virus afoot. Your duplicate and triplicate posts have done exactly nothing to sway the “perpetrators” of this hoax. I think you should try a NEW strategy – and it is GUARANTEED to prove things, once and for all, one way or the other. If it’s a hoax – you win! And we’ll all know!

Here’s what you do: Wear a mask, and social-distance, and avoid crowds, and wash your hands – for 14 days – resolutely. If ALL of you nay-sayers do this – and there is NO CHANGE in data – then I will agree with you – someone’s cooking the books. Wouldn’t two weeks of wearing a mask be easier for you than 4 months of typing the same old-same old, hoping that the “proof” will appear? It CAN appear, you have the power to make it appear – nope, not by complaining, but by simply avoiding other people for two weeks. Than all your dreams will come true, and COVID will be proven a hoax, What do you have to lose? If anyone questions your dignity, or your “sheeplike” behavior = just tell them you’re doing an experiment to prove your point. There is zero downside to this for anyone. And plenty of potential upside for everyone.

*With 1000 USA deaths a day – and 18 days til death average – and 14 days til “healing” average for 85% of people – and guessing half of folks don’t know they have it – and a portion of those that DO know they have it
are in a hospital or otherwise self-isolated – and using the CDC guess at 0.65% death rate – it means 1000/0.65 = 150K new infections every day, * 14 days = 2M simultaneous sick people / 2 (half know it and are out of the game) = about 1 million people.
Sure, maybe it’s 500K , or maybe it’s 2 million – huge swings – tiny difference in the overall point.

**I’m aware it may provide some preventative protection as well. It’s a thought-experiment.
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Old 08-19-2020, 02:55 PM
 
Location: King County, WA
15,834 posts, read 6,539,575 times
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If you only got 1% participation in this, any data results would be hidden by experimental error.
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:24 AM
 
4,022 posts, read 1,876,931 times
Reputation: 8647
People should be less anxious about non-mask wearers (the occasional one) knowing that very - very - few random folks are contagious. Maybe 1 in 300? In a hot spot it's more. Which means in a not-hot-spot - maybe 1 in a 1000?


Just without considering your chances of surviving (quite good) your chances of simply bumping into a contagious person in your small-town regular day are about 1 in a 1000.



Doesn't mean it's not serious. But it does mean you shouldn't fret over every unmasked rebel at the gas station.
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