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Old 03-01-2021, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,871 posts, read 9,536,978 times
Reputation: 15593

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Trafalgar predicted Trump would win with a 2.1 lead over Biden.

So yes, that poll was indeed garbage.
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Old 03-01-2021, 11:20 PM
 
6,115 posts, read 3,347,968 times
Reputation: 10972
All polls are meaningless when you mass mail ballots, collect all the empty ones, and then fill them out without signature verification.

At that point, it becomes a contest between who has the most registered voters.

Of course, nobody wants to admit any of this.
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Old 03-02-2021, 06:38 AM
 
Location: East Lansing, MI
28,353 posts, read 16,385,616 times
Reputation: 10467
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
So you don't actually have anything to say except that you like Atlas's self-promoting tweet and you don't like sources that don't confirm your assumptions.

Is that about it?
Seems accurate, yep.
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Old 03-02-2021, 06:43 AM
 
Location: East Lansing, MI
28,353 posts, read 16,385,616 times
Reputation: 10467
Quote:
Originally Posted by WK91 View Post
All polls are meaningless when you mass mail ballots, collect all the empty ones, and then fill them out without signature verification.

At that point, it becomes a contest between who has the most registered voters.

Of course, nobody wants to admit any of this.
Because it's all untrue, most likely.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:45 PM
 
1,162 posts, read 456,421 times
Reputation: 635
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
So you don't actually have anything to say except that you like Atlas's self-promoting tweet and you don't like sources that don't confirm your assumptions.

Is that about it?

Pretty much. If you look at Atlas's polls through the year they were the closest
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Old 03-02-2021, 04:43 PM
 
8,418 posts, read 7,417,538 times
Reputation: 8767
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timonium View Post
Pretty much. If you look at Atlas's polls through the year they were the closest
I'm not here to prove your point. That's your job. Pony up some hard data, or accept that all that you have done is made a claim based on your favorite pollster's tweet.

You're entitled to your opinion, no matter how you reached it.

Doesn't make your opinion fact.
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:11 AM
 
1,162 posts, read 456,421 times
Reputation: 635
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Trafalgar predicted Trump would win with a 2.1 lead over Biden.

So yes, that poll was indeed garbage.
If it's garbage than most are Super duper garbage.

It's still better
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:12 AM
 
1,162 posts, read 456,421 times
Reputation: 635
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
I'm not here to prove your point. That's your job. Pony up some hard data, or accept that all that you have done is made a claim based on your favorite pollster's tweet.

You're entitled to your opinion, no matter how you reached it.

Doesn't make your opinion fact.
It actually is fact. Maybe don't be so lazy
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:14 AM
 
8,418 posts, read 7,417,538 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timonium View Post
It actually is fact. Maybe don't be so lazy
OK, I went to the website for Atlas Intel.

Atlas hit the national vote really close. Seeing as there have been three Republican Electoral Vote victories in the past seven presidential elections, but only one popular vote majority, getting the national vote correct isn't as important as correctly forecasting the swing state voting.

With swing state voting, Atlas screwed the pooch, getting Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrong - almost as bad as Trafalgar. I say almost because Atlas didn't poll as many swing states as Trafalgar. And those few states that Atlas did pick for Trump, their forecasts were way off from the actual vote percentages. And I say few states because Atlas has very few presidential state polls listed on their web site.

Bottom line - Atlas Intel SUCKS at polling, except when they do their final national poll.

That's the fact.
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Cleveland
4,665 posts, read 4,980,348 times
Reputation: 6023
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
OK, I went to the website for Atlas Intel.

Atlas hit the national vote really close. Seeing as there have been three Republican Electoral Vote victories in the past seven presidential elections, but only one popular vote majority, getting the national vote correct isn't as important as correctly forecasting the swing state voting.

With swing state voting, Atlas screwed the pooch, getting Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania wrong - almost as bad as Trafalgar. I say almost because Atlas didn't poll as many swing states as Trafalgar. And those few states that Atlas did pick for Trump, their forecasts were way off from the actual vote percentages. And I say few states because Atlas has very few presidential state polls listed on their web site.

Bottom line - Atlas Intel SUCKS at polling, except when they do their final national poll.

That's the fact.
They did fine on Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Not great in Florida. They were spot on in Michigan; no idea why you're saying they got it wrong. They were 2.3 points off on Pennsylvania, which is better than many of 538's highly-rated polls (just go down this list and see for yourself: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../pennsylvania/).

No idea why you're going down this route; you're making yourself look more dishonest with every post you make.
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