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Yeah, any pollster that hedges with such a ridiculous statement is clearly a partisan stooge. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but now his credibility is shot.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongStreet
Yeah, any pollster that hedges with such a ridiculous statement is clearly a partisan stooge. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but now his credibility is shot.
One can be a partisan stooge and still be correct. Two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.
One can be a partisan stooge and still be correct. Two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.
A good pollster/statistician cannot be outwardly partisan. Good polling is a math exercise based on trying to ascertain the true facts on the ground. There is no place for partisan spinning in good polling.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
A good pollster/statistician cannot be outwardly partisan. Good polling is a math exercise based on trying to ascertain the true facts on the ground. There is no place for partisan spinning in good polling.
Math exercise? It's a survey based technique. Almost all the outcome is predicated on the assumptions one makes about its sample and the design of questions. That's it. Math is very easy. It's elementary in fact.
Therefore, who's to say Trafalgar's assumptions are better/worse than almost anyone else's?
Surveys by design are highly imprecise tools and easily manipulated.
Both of your logic is wrong, since there could be zero to no correlation between the big rallies and appearance of shy voters.
Therefore the correct statement would be "just because there are big crowds at Trump rallies that doesn't necessarily mean there aren't any Trump shy voters". Therefore, it doesn't necessarily mean that there are Trump shy voters either.
Well, we will find out in a few days. If "small rally" Biden can best "big rally" Trump, then we can jettison the preconceived notion of "big rallies equal more votes." Might a Biden win also be the final nail in the coffin for the infamous "enthusiasm gap?"
Trafalgar made some bold predictions in their latest (last?) polling for this election cycle:
Trump wins Michigan by 3
Trump wins Ohio by 5
Trump wins North Carolina by 2
Trump wins Arizona by 3
Trump wins Florida by 3
Trump even in Wisconsin
Trump wins Pennsylvania by 1
I guess Trump's got this. Nevermind how Trafalgar was off by 7.5 in Nevada 2016.
Math exercise? It's a survey based technique. Almost all the outcome is predicated on the assumptions one makes about its sample and the design of questions. That's it. Math is very easy. It's elementary in fact.
Therefore, who's to say Trafalgar's assumptions are better/worse than almost anyone else's?
Surveys by design are highly imprecise tools and easily manipulated.
The math may be simple statistics (that's where the MoE comes from, right?) but math is still math, and math by definition is non-partisan. Therefore, if Trafalgar's assumptions are based on presumed psychological effects that aren't measured and have no data to support them, then yes, we can say Trafalgar's assumptions are worse than anyone else's.
User WrongStreet is probably right: Cahaly knows his raw data shows Biden ahead in PA and is throwing out the "Democratic voter fraud" story as cover for his bad polls.
I think all polls are rubbish, because they all are biased one way or the other, and they are only obtaining <6% response rates overall. Even if they were not big media biased (6 companies control 90% of the news media...including polls), they cannot get accurate data with a 6% response rate.
Anyways, polling aside, I look at primary voting, early voting, and voting results from the prior cycle.
By those measures, its my personal opinion that Trump will win Florida by a larger margin (113,000 votes) than he did in 2016.
In 2016, Trump trailed by 247,000 after early voting closed, in 2020, he trails by only 116,000...a huge improvement.
In 2016, Trump won Independents, and the Republicans turned out to vote on election day by a much larger margin than Dems.
The only thing working against Trump is that 64% of Floridians have already voted, so his election day turnout edge will not be as strong in '20.
So long as Independents do not reveerse course tomorrow, and repeat their 2016 lean-Trump history, Trump will win Florida.
If so, Trafalgar would be right in predicting the Trump victory, but I think the 3% is a reach.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus
I think all polls are rubbish, because they all are biased one way or the other, and they are only obtaining <6% response rates overall. Even if they were not big media biased (6 companies control 90% of the news media...including polls), they cannot get accurate data with a 6% response rate.
Anyways, polling aside, I look at primary voting, early voting, and voting results from the prior cycle.
By those measures, its my personal opinion that Trump will win Florida by a larger margin (113,000 votes) than he did in 2016.
In 2016, Trump trailed by 247,000 after early voting closed, in 2020, he trails by only 116,000...a huge improvement.
In 2016, Trump won Independents, and the Republicans turned out to vote on election day by a much larger margin than Dems.
The only thing working against Trump is that 64% of Floridians have already voted, so his election day turnout edge will not be as strong in '20.
So long as Independents do not reveerse course tomorrow, and repeat their 2016 lean-Trump history, Trump will win Florida.
If so, Trafalgar would be right in predicting the Trump victory, but I think the 3% is a reach.
Except some people that would have done early in-person voting before are now doing mail-in ballots. The composition of early in-person vote this year is likely not the same as it was in 2016. You're comparing apples to oranges.
Polls are indeed rubbish as you say, if you make wrong assumptions, just like you did.
I think all polls are rubbish, because they all are biased one way or the other, and they are only obtaining <6% response rates overall. Even if they were not big media biased (6 companies control 90% of the news media...including polls), they cannot get accurate data with a 6% response rate.
Anyways, polling aside, I look at primary voting, early voting, and voting results from the prior cycle.
By those measures, its my personal opinion that Trump will win Florida by a larger margin (113,000 votes) than he did in 2016.
In 2016, Trump trailed by 247,000 after early voting closed, in 2020, he trails by only 116,000...a huge improvement.
In 2016, Trump won Independents, and the Republicans turned out to vote on election day by a much larger margin than Dems.
The only thing working against Trump is that 64% of Floridians have already voted, so his election day turnout edge will not be as strong in '20.
So long as Independents do not reveerse course tomorrow, and repeat their 2016 lean-Trump history, Trump will win Florida.
If so, Trafalgar would be right in predicting the Trump victory, but I think the 3% is a reach.
Polls are biased toward one thing only $$$. Improving accuracy relates directly to selling their services. Most polls are not deliberately biased toward one candidate or another. They may surely have varying levels of accuracy as their methods are wildly different. But the ultimate goal of almost all of them is the same, to improve accuracy to secure their next client. Pure capitalism.
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