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Biden, too, is gaining ground in Arizona. The same Fox News poll gave him a 9 percentage point lead. That poll, by the way, was conducted just after the Republican convention designed to boost President Trump.
Biden is ahead of Trump by 4.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of polls of Arizona. “It’s still pretty close to a toss-up,” noted the polling blog’s Nathaniel Rakich, who also said Biden was doing “pretty darn good” in the state.
Trump got a big bump yesterday when he visited Kenosha. The people loved him, they lined up to see him go by. they spoke their appreciation that he came and visited their small town.
That is the important bumps, when the real people, the real voters, show that. They will remember that Biden did not come to go see them in their time of need.
Biden did speak with the guy who got shot 7 times in Kenosha. Do you strongly stand with Trump that it would have been a bad idea, if he did the same?
Final polling in 2016 had Clinton up 3.2%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%. Now could she have been up 8 points earlier on, perhaps. Or some of the state tallies were not accurate. Or the samples were not correctly weighted. Who knows. The final Bloomberg poll which was within a point of being perfect had a sample that had 5% more democrats than republicans. So perhaps 4% more democrats should be sampled to get the real numbers. In fact taking your numbers above and subtract 4% you get Clinton by 4 which might have been right at that time. She was probably never up by 8%. But 4 years ago there were a series of events that probably moved voters back and forth. Less of that this time so far.
The final poll, the only one that counts and can be compared to the actual vote was off by 1.1%. All the other stuff is meaningless.
But Michael Moore is greatly concerned that Biden is not leading as much in the swing states as Hillary was at this time in 2016.
You have no idea who I am. Not a Democrat. Never voted once for a Democrat. Obama was horrible. Trump is also.
I am not a W Bush fan either. Both parties have let me down. I expect better. Do you? How about holding political leaders to a high standard. Instead of saying the other side did something stupid so excuses my side when they do the same thing... Like saying Obama did a photo op too. That does not excuse Trump or Obama.
The whole left / right thing is a diversion. Both parties are playing Americans. The Republicans and Democrats are in bed together. Open your eyes.
I gave up with both the Republicans and Democrats for president when I couldn't vote for either one in 2012. There was no 3rd party candidate on the Oklahoma ballot in 2012 so left the presidential part of the ballot unchecked. In 2016, after signing a successful petition to put the Libertarian Party on the ballot as a recognized political party, I was able to lodge a protest vote by voting for the Libertarian Party candidate for president. In Nov. 2020, I will have to do the same thing again.
But Michael Moore is greatly concerned that Biden is not leading as much in the swing states as Hillary was at this time in 2016.
Moore lives in Michigan. I think he has a better pulse on middle american than those liberals on the coasts who never see a Trump sign or know anyone who would vote for Trump. Moore said the same thing in 2016 he thought Trump would win. This time I don't if he believes Biden is in trouble or he is just trying to make sure everyone votes this time.
I gave up with both the Republicans and Democrats for president when I couldn't vote for either one in 2012. There was no 3rd party candidate on the Oklahoma ballot in 2012 so left the presidential part of the ballot unchecked. In 2016, after signing a successful petition to put the Libertarian Party on the ballot as a recognized political party, I was able to lodge a protest vote by voting for the Libertarian Party candidate for president. In Nov. 2020, I will have to do the same thing again.
I was in Arizona during the 2016 campaign season and I wanted to get involved with helping the Libertarian party that year. It was when Johnson was polling really well and had a chance to get in the debates. My opinion of the party in Tucson is they were very disorganized. It was almost like we know we are going to lose so lets not even try. I wanted to buy bumper stickers, t-shirts etc and they had nothing. Hard to even talk to anyone there with the party. Their local webpage for the Tucson branch had not been updated for 3 years. I gave up. And the the Allepo comment and that was it for the party that year. I assumed that this was probably typical for the party all over. I don't know that for sure.
The party needs a Bloomberg type of person (not his politics but someone with his money) who is willing to spend $1 billion to bring the party up to the level of the other two. Like what Ross Perot did. And then get disenfranchised Democrat and Republican politicians to climb on board down ticker. Without that the party will never raise enough to be competitive. And if that was to start right after the next POTUS gets into office they could have a head start on the others.
I was in Arizona during the 2016 campaign season and I wanted to get involved with helping the Libertarian party that year. It was when Johnson was polling really well and had a chance to get in the debates. My opinion of the party in Tucson is they were very disorganized. It was almost like we know we are going to lose so lets not even try. I wanted to buy bumper stickers, t-shirts etc and they had nothing. Hard to even talk to anyone there with the party. Their local webpage for the Tucson branch had not been updated for 3 years. I gave up. And the the Allepo comment and that was it for the party that year. I assumed that this was probably typical for the party all over. I don't know that for sure.
The party needs a Bloomberg type of person (not his politics but someone with his money) who is willing to spend $1 billion to bring the party up to the level of the other two. Like what Ross Perot did. And then get disenfranchised Democrat and Republican politicians to climb on board down ticker. Without that the party will never raise enough to be competitive. And if that was to start right after the next POTUS gets into office they could have a head start on the others.
The Libertarian Party I think needs to figure out what it wants to be. It tries to toe the line between libertarian policies and the middle. I previously said that I would have voted Libertarian if Bill Weld was the presidential nominee not Gary Johnson. Too many want the Libertarian Party to be further right than Johnson. I remember a few of the Libertarian members of this board complaining that McAfee wasn't the 2016 nominee and the more palatable Johnson was.
As for what you are saying for a realistic third party, sounds like Alliance Party is for you. It is a combination of American Moderates Party, the American Party of South Carolina, and the Modern Whig Party with a few other parties include a state Reform Party or two. Rocky De Santis is running as their and the National Reform Party candidate.
Good, let Biden win the polls while Trump wins the actual election.
LOL Exactly!
Democrats love to crow about polls, and "Biden is winning!"
Polls are not accurate and can be crafted to fit narratives. The questions they ask in polls can be created so that the answer is exactly what they want.
They can have the "we are winning for real" polls.
That is really good for Trump, if LA, NYC and Seattle have him that close.
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