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I really don't think there will be a "tipping point".
I think this election will be like the last one, with Trump wining most of the states, and the election.
Did you actually watch the entire video???
He never could get the model to show what he wanted it to show and he ignore Florida altogether.
Doubtful that Harris/Biden win Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina ..... but that is what this guy thinks will happen.
He left out Floria and included all those other States because Harris/Biden must have a clean sweep IF/When he loses Florida. He clearly thinks Biden will lose Florida, so do I.
LOL. So bases his predictions on prior results, and polling...but picks each one via different parameters in order to get to the desired result. got it.
its one of those things that sounds smart, and is soooo very tempting TO do. But it doesn't give you very accurate predictions. 538 has a far better methodology. But I dont always agree 100% with them. For example I'd look at polling, and early return balloting and then at least try to estimate what % of those were R vs D, to try and figure out how much voting was done right now, and assign those as baked in. Also LOL. Trumps going to win Nevada by 4 or 5%?
For example if 100,000 mail in votes were done in say Florida, and we knew that the ballots were even (they arent but im not a professional at this stuff, much like the kid who made the youtube). But lets say its all evenly distributed-Id argue that those votes were 51% Biden, 47% Tump. Bam, locked in. Lets say next week it changes. I wouldn't include those earlier votes.
about 7 million votes have already been cast.
So you can make fancy looking graphics, and a youtube channel, but you need to do a LOT better to figure out whats going on then whats done here.
Trump should win rather convincingly. It won't hinge on just one state.
I think Trump will win with 315-325 electoral votes. Biden will be far behind, struggling to reach 220.
It won't be that close this time.
did you watch the video?
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