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There was a Trump surge after Comey reopened the email case. Trumpies are desperately hoping Hunter's shenanigans have a similar result. I think it's unlikely.
Been over this ad nauseum.
Hillary's numbers didn't change much after the case was reopened (October 28, 2016) and they didn't change much after it was reclosed.
October 28, 2016; RCP national average Hillary 44.9%
She would go as high as 45.6% (+0.7%) on October 31, and finish at 45.5% (+0.6%), two days after the case was reclosed.
Trump's numbers were already climbing a full week before the case was reopened;
October 21, 2016: RCP national average Trump 39.0%
October 28, 2016: RCP national average Trump 41.0%
On November 6, 2016, the day the email investigation was reclosed, Hillary was back at 44.9% and Trump was at 42.7% (+1.7%).
The problem you with your theory that Trump gained from the case being reopened is that Hillary didn't lose what Trump gained.
Johnson and Stein lost a combined 0.7% and the other 1% came from undecideds not represented in the October 28 total (94.2% on 11-6 vs. 93.2% on 10-28).
Status:
"Smartened up and walked away!"
(set 20 days ago)
11,767 posts, read 5,781,921 times
Reputation: 14185
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
One key difference between 2016 and 2020 is polling has been quite a bit more consistent this year than in 2016 where more swings existed. Also, while you did have polls like this one which showed margins similar to what we are seeing now, the averages are a bit different. The RCP average in 2016 in the last six months or so maxed out at Clinton +7.5, and generally stayed in a Clinton +2 to +6 range. The current RCP average is about 2 points larger for Biden than the max it ever was for Clinton during the last six months of the race and the average has generally been in the Biden +6.5 to +8.5 range since early June (with some recent upticks)
If you bother to look at the methodology on many of these polls - they are inflating the Democrat number and under representing % of Republicans. Dems lost about 2% of voters with the walk away campaign and yet polls are still polling as if those 2% never left - giving a 2 pt advantage right there to the left. Many times they are only polling Republicans at 23% when they maintain 25% of voters so again it favors the left by 2% - and this brings the polling % down by 4 pts for the Democrats at the very least as some polls are way skewed.
Hillary's numbers didn't change much after the case was reopened (October 28, 2016) and they didn't change much after it was reclosed.
October 28, 2016; RCP national average Hillary 44.9%
She would go as high as 45.6% (+0.7%) on October 31, and finish at 45.5% (+0.6%), two days after the case was reclosed.
Trump's numbers were already climbing a full week before the case was reopened;
October 21, 2016: RCP national average Trump 39.0%
October 28, 2016: RCP national average Trump 41.0%
On November 6, 2016, the day the email investigation was reclosed, Hillary was back at 44.9% and Trump was at 42.7% (+1.7%).
The problem you with your theory that Trump gained from the case being reopened is that Hillary didn't lose what Trump gained.
Johnson and Stein lost a combined 0.7% and the other 1% came from undecideds not represented in the October 28 total (94.2% on 11-6 vs. 93.2% on 10-28).
Hillary was leading in polls of states with 333 electoral votes on October 19, the last state change before Comey reopened the email case on October 28. Between that date and November 4 she lost 60 electoral votes, losing the lead in four states while gaining only one district in Maine. By November 2, she is shown with a mere 8 point electoral college lead, 273-265.
Her popular vote lead also dropped from 6.5% on October 19 to 1.7% on November 2.
You can repeat stuff ad nauseum but it is still wrong
The race is tightening in the battleground states.
It's already over, Trump won... All that is left is for Trump supporters to go vote... That's why Democrats have been trying to suppress people here to not vote.... Biden get ready for jail...
Location: Somewhere between the Americas and Western Europe
2,180 posts, read 639,735 times
Reputation: 2092
Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie
It's already over, Trump won... All that is left is for Trump supporters to go vote... That's why Democrats have been trying to suppress people here to not vote.... Biden get ready for jail...
Democrats need to increase their "early voting" totals if they want to win. Majority of Republicans vote election day, and in some states, like Florida, Republicans are outpacing dems in even early votes.
It's already over, Trump won... All that is left is for Trump supporters to go vote... That's why Democrats have been trying to suppress people here to not vote.... Biden get ready for jail...
I don't see Hillary locked up.
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