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"Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon has been telling donors, activists and voters to assume that the current polling leads will not last, even as the campaign also argues that Trump’s approach to campaigning with large crowds amid a surging pandemic is exactly the opposite of what swing voters want to see. She has said Biden does not have a double-digit lead.
“[N]ational polls tell us very little about the pathway to 270 electoral votes,” O’Malley Dillon wrote Saturday in a memo to donors. “We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied.”
Polling might underperform Democrats in red states like Texas, Georgia, and possibly Arizona. It was pointed out by Beto O'Rouke polling had him losing by 7% he lost by 2.5%. Polling error we saw in 2016 in Midwest blue states might be the reverse situation in Red states which show Trump up by 5-7%. I still think it's possible for Biden to Win Texas if that happens Trump is finished on election night. Ted Cruz has said he is very worried about a disaster for the Republican party much like after Watergate.
"Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon has been telling donors, activists and voters to assume that the current polling leads will not last, even as the campaign also argues that Trump’s approach to campaigning with large crowds amid a surging pandemic is exactly the opposite of what swing voters want to see. She has said Biden does not have a double-digit lead.
That's exactly what a winning team wants to say to their voters -- don't think you can assume other people will vote for Biden. You MUST go out there and vote yourself!
So while I echo her comments and sentiment, I'll also just say that things haven't moved toward Trump/Republicans since the 2018 election. How could they? We are so much worse off as a country than we were in 2018. Economy, race relations, public health, world standing, all in the toilet.
Polling might underperform Democrats in red states like Texas, Georgia, and possibly Arizona. It was pointed out by Beto O'Rouke polling had him losing by 7% he lost by 2.5%. Polling error we saw in 2016 in Midwest blue states might be the reverse situation in Red states which show Trump up by 5-7%. I still think it's possible for Biden to Win Texas if that happens Trump is finished on election night. Ted Cruz has said he is very worried about a disaster for the Republican party much like after Watergate.
Biden winning Texas would be the biggest political upset in several decades. Far more significant than even Trump's surprise 2016 win. Living in Austin, the political signs I see are 10 to 1 for Biden. But, I mean, that's Austin for you. The rest of Texas I'm not so sure about. I'm pretty sure Trump will carry it. But the record turnout is interesting for sure, and I'm guessing Democrats will continue making gains in the state legislature, like they did in 2018. It's mostly from the suburbs turning Democratic here.
Biden winning Texas would be the biggest political upset in several decades. Far more significant than even Trump's surprise 2016 win. Living in Austin, the political signs I see are 10 to 1 for Biden. But, I mean, that's Austin for you. The rest of Texas I'm not so sure about. I'm pretty sure Trump will carry it. But the record turnout is interesting for sure, and I'm guessing Democrats will continue making gains in the state legislature, like they did in 2018. It's mostly from the suburbs turning Democratic here.
Why would Republicans register in record numbers according to news 78% of Texas voter aged population are now registered to vote highest numbers ever. If I'm a republican in Texas and everyone says Trump will carry the state why bother with registering. Seems to me the ones registering are Democrats who have been fired up to remove Trump from office.
Biden winning Texas would be the biggest political upset in several decades. Far more significant than even Trump's surprise 2016 win. Living in Austin, the political signs I see are 10 to 1 for Biden. But, I mean, that's Austin for you. The rest of Texas I'm not so sure about. I'm pretty sure Trump will carry it. But the record turnout is interesting for sure, and I'm guessing Democrats will continue making gains in the state legislature, like they did in 2018. It's mostly from the suburbs turning Democratic here.
Texas poll right now. The undecided vote in a Texas will be huge factor.
Why would Republicans register in record numbers according to news 78% of Texas voter aged population are now registered to vote highest numbers ever. If I'm a republican in Texas and everyone says Trump will carry the state why bother with registering. Seems to me the ones registering are Democrats who have been fired up to remove Trump from office.
This is going to be the slowest next 2 weeks ever.
Well, I certainly hope you are right, and yeah it makes sense that the giant increase in registration/early voting would be because people want to remove Trump. The problem is that I cannot honestly read my own state because Austin is so overwhelmingly pro-Biden, as I am. I mean it is really a liberal utopia here, I love it but I know the rest of Texas isn't like this. The swing to the left, if it happens, is all about suburbs in the major cities. With all the companies relocating here the electorate is definitely changing, but I'm not sure it's enough.
I would say that it is narrowly more likely that Texas will stay red. If it does, I think by the next election, it will be blue, and I don't think it is far off that the state house and governorship could flip as well. Even if Trump wins, I think the (federal) Senate will flip to blue, making it considerably harder her him to do what he did this term.
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