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Don't fall into the trap the Republicans did when they thought all the polls were wrong and skewed in 2012 Romney and ended up with really long faces election night...including Romney.
If that was a thing, it wasn't comparable to the size and scope of 2016.
I knew Romney was going to lose. That was the general feeling among republicans in my circle.
And this election, I have absolutely no idea who is going to win, but I give the edge to Biden.
You may be right though I live in Florida in a county that leaned Democrat in 2016, and I have to say that the support for Trump has not abated. I understand that Trump has lost support among retirees but all of the indications are that he has gained support among Latinos especially among the Cubans and some South Americans.
My DIL is Mexican American and she supports the Republicans - even though she does not like Trump - but she lives in CA so her vote will not make a difference.
"I understand that Trump has lost support among retirees"
I live is a large retirees area and see just the opposite. I see Trump signs out number biden signs by at least 10-1.
Every President since polling began maintained a minimum of 50% approval throughout his term as President. The 50% was the floor; most of the time they all were actually several points higher.
Only Donald Trump failed to ever reach that 50% approval average. The most he's been able to do is 43%, and that has been remarkably stable, rarely going higher or lower. So, for Trump, 43% was both his ceiling and his floor in approval ratings.
That means Trump's base- the voters who went for him early and who voted for him in 2016- are still with him. He's kept them quite intact for 4 years, but he hasn't captured any new voters since then.
Trump's favorability average isn't at 50%. Rasmussen, and outlier, may have bumped Trump's average up a point, but he's still around 43%, and Biden has been as stable at 51%.
Both have gotten minor bounces, and both have dipped down to low points. The gap between them remains much larger than the one in 2016, a closer race by far.
The averages don't lie.
How well did the polls do for teh last election?
I just saw one form Quinnipac that polled dems by 11% and 15% MORE then Trump. What "results" would you expect?
Most polls STOPPED giving their methodology after it was revealed how many dems they poll over repubs.
Polls are meaningless anyway since we do NOT elect by "popular" anyway.
The only polls that matter is that on November 3rd.
Don't get complacent.
But, Democrats should start to worry at this point if they thought they had it in the bag.
I mean, if he's as awful as they keep saying he is, then they should cake-walk this.
I think Trump is a terrible president. But I don't care how "better at the polls" Biden is at, I will not be complacent till all the votes are counted.
One thing I have noticed of people on the left is they are not assuming that Biden will win, no matter what the polls say. And I see a lot less people willing to stand by the side lines.
They are willing to go through broken glass covered in rubbing alcohol to ensure they can vote, which is a much different sentiment then what we saw in 2016.
Every President since polling began maintained a minimum of 50% approval throughout his term as President. The 50% was the floor; most of the time they all were actually several points higher.
Only Donald Trump failed to ever reach that 50% approval average. The most he's been able to do is 43%, and that has been remarkably stable, rarely going higher or lower. So, for Trump, 43% was both his ceiling and his floor in approval ratings.
That means Trump's base- the voters who went for him early and who voted for him in 2016- are still with him. He's kept them quite intact for 4 years, but he hasn't captured any new voters since then.
Trump's favorability average isn't at 50%. Rasmussen, and outlier, may have bumped Trump's average up a point, but he's still around 43%, and Biden has been as stable at 51%.
Both have gotten minor bounces, and both have dipped down to low points. The gap between them remains much larger than the one in 2016, a closer race by far.
The averages don't lie.
while i agree that Rasmussen may be an outlier, that doesn't mean i think its wrong. Rasmussen has consistently been accurate. Gallop also has Trump at 50.
beyond that, you are just flat wrong about 50% being the floor. That's just not accurate.
As for this election, i think the reality here is that no one can say for certain, although i am more hopeful of a Trump victory today than at any point before today. In fact 2 months ago I said it was Biden's to lose.
What isn't being accounted for (because it cant be) is the number of people Trump team has found that traditionally don't vote. IF that number is as large as some think, its going to be a win. If that is pie in the sky then its a Trump loss.
I think Trump is a terrible president. But I don't care how "better at the polls" Biden is at, I will not be complacent till all the votes are counted.
One thing I have noticed of people on the left is they are not assuming that Biden will win, no matter what the polls say. And I see a lot less people willing to stand by the side lines.
They are willing to go through broken glass covered in rubbing alcohol to ensure they can vote, which is a much different sentiment then what we saw in 2016.
You haven't been reading much in the politics forum lately then. Plenty of liberals here already celebrating Biden's victory.
Biden probably will win. And if Biden wins, it's not a huge upset, because we already expect him to win. Biden's win is already baked into the cake.
But if Biden loses, that just makes Trump's victory that much worse for dems, and so much sweeter for republicans.
That's why I don't understand the logic in why you guys keep doing this to yourselves.
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