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Rasmussen Says Trump Just Hit the 'Holy Grail' of Reelection Numbers
We’re now counting down to the election with just 12 days left.
We’re seeing all kinds of things exploding off in the Biden scandal as more and more information keeps dropping. It’s clear Joe Biden is going to have serious problems over it.
The final debate is tonight. Biden got a gift with the biased Debate Commission canceling the second debate so Joe Biden only had to hold it together through two debates, half as many as President Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had back in 2016.
Yes, Rasmussen is considered to be biased towards Republicans but between the link above, the debate last night, the Hunter Biden laptop issues and the undecided/swing voters in the swing states, I think Trump may just pull it off.
It really boils down to whether the swing voters believe that Biden or someone else would have done a better job dealing with Covid. I have seen a couple of focus groups where those interviewed said that no matter who was in charge, Covid would have taken a heavy toll. If these focus groups are accurate then the undecided voters in the swing states may just decide they don't want to rock the boat and take a chance on an aging career politician like Biden.
The national polls are irrelevant ....... Biden will win the popular vote for sure but that is neither here nor there.
You may be right though I live in Florida in a county that leaned Democrat in 2016, and I have to say that the support for Trump has not abated. I understand that Trump has lost support among retirees but all of the indications are that he has gained support among Latinos especially among the Cubans and some South Americans.
My DIL is Mexican American and she supports the Republicans - even though she does not like Trump - but she lives in CA so her vote will not make a difference.
But I would not bet the farm on a Trump victory ...... but I sure as hell would not bet the farm on a Biden victory either.
The betting markets still give Trump an approximately 40% chance of winning ..... which surprises me based on the polling that gets endless publicity forecasting a decisive Biden victory.
Every President since polling began maintained a minimum of 50% approval throughout his term as President. The 50% was the floor; most of the time they all were actually several points higher.
Only Donald Trump failed to ever reach that 50% approval average. The most he's been able to do is 43%, and that has been remarkably stable, rarely going higher or lower. So, for Trump, 43% was both his ceiling and his floor in approval ratings.
That means Trump's base- the voters who went for him early and who voted for him in 2016- are still with him. He's kept them quite intact for 4 years, but he hasn't captured any new voters since then.
Trump's favorability average isn't at 50%. Rasmussen, and outlier, may have bumped Trump's average up a point, but he's still around 43%, and Biden has been as stable at 51%.
Both have gotten minor bounces, and both have dipped down to low points. The gap between them remains much larger than the one in 2016, a closer race by far.
Don't fall into the same trap that the democrats did last election, and may be falling into again this one.
Democrats are all saying Trump doesn't have a chance. They did that last time. They said Trump had no path to victory. They said it on this board, on social media, as well as the liberal pundits in the main stream media.
That feeling of having their candidate be the inevitable candidate, must have made election night so much worse, having that inevitability ripped away from them, state by state.
And for what? If we all convince everyone that our candidate is inevitable, does that gain the candidate any votes?
Don't fall into the trap the Republicans did when they thought all the polls were wrong and skewed in 2012 Romney and ended up with really long faces election night...including Romney. Rasmussen supposedly had the unskewed polls that year and lost alot of credibility.
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