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Location: Somewhere between the Americas and Western Europe
2,180 posts, read 640,204 times
Reputation: 2092
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian
Cubanx's are seriously voicing their anti-Democrat thing in SE Florida. Serious. Not sure where the various other Latinx populations around the country are at, but the SE Florida Cubanx are leaving no doubt where their collective head is at. That is one of the more glaring "national voting stories the DNC doesn't want you to hear" examples going right now.
Everytime I see the word "Latinx" i read it phonetically, and it is much more funny.
Everytime I see the word "Latinx" i read it phonetically, and it is much more funny.
Just being PC and all...don't want to offend with bad pronouns/descriptors/etc, and since the Thought Police changes what is offensive every 13 minutes, I go with the safest, least offensive thing possible.
No, he is running against someone who is almost as bad.
Biden is equally bad, just for different reasons.
Hillary is shrill and unlikable, which turns people off from voting for her. Biden is a senile, racist pervert, which turns people off from voting for him.
The Democrats have people that are sane, intelligent and likable, but the DNC for whatever reason makes sure none of them ever get much name recognition or party support. Tulsi Gabbard being top of my head example. But her common sense and centrism worked against her same as Joe Leibermann's did against him. Hell, in today's Democrat party, Bill Clinton would have suspended his campaign after NH at the latest. He would have done horribly in today's climate of super leftist partisanship and hatred.
I don't know about RealClear, but other polls indicate Trump is leading, and is likely to win FL, which would not surprise me knowing how lazy FL Dems are when it comes to voting. Also, GOP managed to suppress hundreds of thousands of votes most of which would have gone blue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58
You cite early in person votes
FL-mail-in votes
Dems + 600,000
Net: Dems up 400,000
Yes, but lot of conspiracy fearing Republicans are waiting for Nov 3 to vote, so whatever lead Dems might have with mail-ins might evaporate on Nov 3.
I think Trump is a complete idiot, but I have to be realistic and accept the fact that could very well win the elections, especially in FL. If it happens, the Dems will have to blame themselves for :
1. Not finding a better candidate
2. Being too lazy to support the one they nominated
Last edited by Finn_Jarber; 10-29-2020 at 01:46 PM..
I don't know about RealClear, but other polls indicate Trump is leading, and is likely to win FL, which would not surprise me knowing how lazy FL Dems are when it comes to voting. Also, GOP managed to suppress hundreds of thousands of votes most of which would have gone blue.
Yes, but lot of conspiracy fearing Republicans are waiting for Nov 3 to vote, so whatever lead Dems might have with mail-ins might evaporate on Nov 3.
I think Trump is a complete idiot, but I have to be realistic and accept the fact that could very well win the elections, especially in FL. If it happens, the Dems will have to blame themselves for :
1. Not finding a better candidate
2. Being too lazy to support the one they nominated
Maybe, maybe not. Early voting has been well-established here for a long time. I live in a very red area and there have been steady lines for early voting... I don't think they're all democrats. In fact, I doubt more than 30% are democrats. Keep in mind that we're also chock-full of old people who know that they're at risk for developing complications of COVID and that even the trumpiest of Trumpers generally mask up (often wearing their TRUMP masks, which makes me laugh behind my own mask every time). I don't think a huge percentage are holding out for Tuesday.
That being said, Biden still does have plenty of paths to 270 without Florida. Obviously I'd like to see Florida turn blue on the electoral map on Tuesday night so I can go to bed relieved, but I doubt it will happen.
Democrats in Florida are using mail ballots in large numbers.
Whereas Republicans in Florida are favoring in-person voting. OP only mention early in-person vote volumes while ignoring mail ballots already cast in Florida. In fact, Democrats have already voted in higher number in Florida
Counting in-person votes already cast AND mail ballots already cast in Florida, Democrats lead in turnout by approx 330,000 total votes over Republicans as of Sunday 10/25/2020. However, there are a lot of votes cast for voters that aren't affiliated with any part, and these voters favor Biden by +8 in polls.
**Polls indicate 4% of Florida Dems favor Trump and 8% of Florida Republicans favor Biden. Biden gets +4 of the party flipper votes, per the polls.
2016 Florida Early and By Mail Voting
Republicans 2,533,362
Democrats 2,629,812
Net Advantage Democrats +96,450
Result: Trump +112,911
This is because independent and unaffiliated voters tend to go Republican plus Republicans vote in person more.
2020 Florida Early and By Mail Voting
Republicans 2,970,131
Democrats 3,131,493
Net Advantage Democrats +161,362
Result???
This suggest Democrats "might" be slightly outperforming 2016. Republicans can of course hope that they win the independent and unaffiliated voters again and of course they need to win the voting on election day votes. It is possible that Democrats are voting earlier than normal and have less votes on election day.
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